Justin123
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Posts posted by Justin123
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31 minutes ago, LimoPreacherman said:
Thoughts on the ringed cell?
If the storms are being steered by the 850hpa winds, which I believe they are as 925hpa and 950hpa don’t correlate with the storm motion this morning and afternoon in the uk. Then that cell will likely die before it reaches the channel or be taken westwards with other storms as it crosses channel. This also suggests why the storms in Holland have a NW motion as the steering wends are taking them this way until they reach different steering winds in the North Sea ,veering to an E’ly track motion. For example the storm that is currently in the North Sea is taking a different track to the ones that have not left Holland
yet. I may be wrong, but they are likely to follow the E-W track as they did this morning.
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21 hours ago, Bangers & Flash said:
Channel is alive again elevated as seen on radar, looks to be a transfer of energy.
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so this has just popped up in the Channel, wouldn’t be surprised to see a few thundery showers by dawn( as per some models) nowhere near what we have had tonight but there’s he chance.
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Convection cropping up in Essex now, think tonight’s going to be a special one
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I went outside, I’m in south Essex and my hairs were standing on end as I looked to the south, the lightning frequency is nuts and it’s still a good 20 miles away !
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I’m sure the next cell inline, has an ever so slightly more Northerly track maybe able to hear some thunder in the next 30 mins !
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Literally out in the front garden watching the distant lightning just in case that’s it for my end of the woods(Essex) hope not !
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I can hear distant thunder, the cells I have highlighted have been gaining intensity( precipitation wise) maybe they’re fired into life because can’t imagine I cana hear thunder from the cell in Kent.
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I hope that essex and London and south east get sone action, missed April’s storms completely, here in south Essex, not been a rumble even distant for over a year now, but sferics getting close, and precipitation building further in the channel
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2 hours ago, staplehurst said:
I've looked at the potential but decided not to issue anything - it really is just the GFS producing anything, all other models are practically dry. Some decent CAPE, but virtually no shear, dry looking profiles too. As you say, if anything did develop it would be pulse-type rather than anything organised, and hence relatively short-lived. So some convection may bubble up in SE England, but will likely struggle to gain sufficient height to produce very much - GFS has a habit of overdoing these marginal risks due to its issues with excess moisture.
Oh ok! That makes sense now. Sorry, should have looked further before posting that, but thanks for your help. Is it because the GFS isn’t as high res as some models.
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The chance of some surface based thunderstorms in the far southeast, moving north east- south west. With up to 450kj/g there are more likely to be pulse storms rather than organised, but the isolated stronger cell can’t be ruled out. Only a 50% chance of lightning today though. I really hope convective weather pick up on this for today’s small chance of seeing the first thunderstorm in the southeast. As being in Essex missed the last storms from the last heatwave. Also funnily enough I have never seen estofex issue a forecast and not convective weather. Maybe the chief forecaster is busy this week!
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Can see there being happy faces tonight and tommorow morning, just had a hefty snow shower briefly covered everything with a cm of snow on canvey, salt doing it’s job which I layed, 3 grit runs tonight, 7pm, 12am , 4am, more for the morning but that won’t be me! Day off tommorow then! I do think to myself how nice it would look with no salt melting it away, just once ?? don’t worry all my route was gritted, camvey, benfleet, thundersley, every main road gritted! You should see how many roads are on my route, we grit smaller roads too!!
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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:
No it's not...I'm looking out the window now, dry!
Radar, gone last you really
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Precipitation building near burnham om crouch, building south, if it keeps building further south may form a band of snow.
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From 1700 hours tonight onwards is the time for us in Se Essex and east London , winds veer more NEly and lose some of the easterly component, dragging more moisture and increasing convections, hence why the steamers on models are at a Ne/Sw trajectory. Only just begun
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3 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:
Canvey island has had showers nearly every 30 mins since 7am but like otherwise the sun comes out in between taking it away. But I'm confident things will change in couple of hours! Oh my sledge has just been delivered let's hope it gets to come out of the wrapping tomorrow.
I’m currently in london today on a course, been seeing the snow in canvey !At home for the amber warning tonight and tommorow! Think you will be able to use the sledge? Near the sea wall? ??
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Yellow echoes more predominantly showing across the SE now, this evening and tonight is gonna be interesting for sure
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11 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:
Its normal, it happens every time we have a big cold spell (so about once every 10 years!)
Hence why i haven’t seen it ! At least we know we are in for a treat, showers cropping up slightly further south no just NE of wash, runs in line with METO forecast vid this evening, with flurry’s kissing east anglia by 10/11 pm!
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8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:
I completely agree with splitting the thread, it's a nightmare trying to keep up unless you spend every waking minute refreshing.
Splitting a city in half is an odd choice, though.
Yes all other regional threads are intact strange that we are split up, must be the busiest, well it’s always the te too in regional discussions☝️?
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Just now, tinybill said:
i see you all at 5 in the morning after a peck out of the window zzz calling got be up to salt the drive for her indoors so she can get back on it later!!
If you was on my route I’d blast your drive!
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Just now, crazy_diamond said:
Hope it all goes well for you, and thank you!
Always goes smoothly in the night time, when we have 6pm runs is when it gets interesting, the hydraulics for the ploughs have been tested, they haven’t been used in years! Must be exceptional chances of 6inches or more! ( threshold for plough use) ?
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Just now, Speedbird said:
are you talking about the ones off Aberdeen, East coast of Scotland ?
Yes looking for some signs, some further south now, but thought I’d mention it so people can see instability is there, want it to come quicker though man!?
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Just now, Essex Chelle said:
Well I'm on little island floating in the Thames- where should I be ?
We are truly the only ones who are in both
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Just now, Snowflake Queen said:
Is it here I’m meant to be in ?
I’m in both! Your guess is as good as mine, I can see why it’s been split, London being the capital and a lot of us from here but no other regional threads have been cut in half, oh well ?
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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Justin123
Sorry. Another diagram just to show why the storms are differing in direction, they will change course, towards the UK, hence the extended met warning. The reason the met has extended the warning is due to the potency of these storms, even though most will weaken or die, some may survive the crossing and still be electrified. Anyway I thought this would help people who are unclear on the track the “potential” storms will take. If you compare the steering winds with the recorded lightning strikes you will se what I’m getting at. Have attached to unedited copies to compare.