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Justin123

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Interests
    Weather, fishing , flying.
  • Weather Preferences
    Severe thunderstorms

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  1. Sorry. Another diagram just to show why the storms are differing in direction, they will change course, towards the UK, hence the extended met warning. The reason the met has extended the warning is due to the potency of these storms, even though most will weaken or die, some may survive the crossing and still be electrified. Anyway I thought this would help people who are unclear on the track the “potential” storms will take. If you compare the steering winds with the recorded lightning strikes you will se what I’m getting at. Have attached to unedited copies to compare.
  2. If the storms are being steered by the 850hpa winds, which I believe they are as 925hpa and 950hpa don’t correlate with the storm motion this morning and afternoon in the uk. Then that cell will likely die before it reaches the channel or be taken westwards with other storms as it crosses channel. This also suggests why the storms in Holland have a NW motion as the steering wends are taking them this way until they reach different steering winds in the North Sea ,veering to an E’ly track motion. For example the storm that is currently in the North Sea is taking a different track to the ones that have not left Holland yet. I may be wrong, but they are likely to follow the E-W track as they did this morning.
  3. Channel is alive again elevated as seen on radar, looks to be a transfer of energy.
  4. so this has just popped up in the Channel, wouldn’t be surprised to see a few thundery showers by dawn( as per some models) nowhere near what we have had tonight but there’s he chance.
  5. Convection cropping up in Essex now, think tonight’s going to be a special one
  6. I went outside, I’m in south Essex and my hairs were standing on end as I looked to the south, the lightning frequency is nuts and it’s still a good 20 miles away !
  7. I’m sure the next cell inline, has an ever so slightly more Northerly track maybe able to hear some thunder in the next 30 mins !
  8. Literally out in the front garden watching the distant lightning just in case that’s it for my end of the woods(Essex) hope not !
  9. I can hear distant thunder, the cells I have highlighted have been gaining intensity( precipitation wise) maybe they’re fired into life because can’t imagine I cana hear thunder from the cell in Kent.
  10. I hope that essex and London and south east get sone action, missed April’s storms completely, here in south Essex, not been a rumble even distant for over a year now, but sferics getting close, and precipitation building further in the channel
  11. Oh ok! That makes sense now. Sorry, should have looked further before posting that, but thanks for your help. Is it because the GFS isn’t as high res as some models.
  12. The chance of some surface based thunderstorms in the far southeast, moving north east- south west. With up to 450kj/g there are more likely to be pulse storms rather than organised, but the isolated stronger cell can’t be ruled out. Only a 50% chance of lightning today though. I really hope convective weather pick up on this for today’s small chance of seeing the first thunderstorm in the southeast. As being in Essex missed the last storms from the last heatwave. Also funnily enough I have never seen estofex issue a forecast and not convective weather. Maybe the chief forecaster is busy this week!
  13. Can see there being happy faces tonight and tommorow morning, just had a hefty snow shower briefly covered everything with a cm of snow on canvey, salt doing it’s job which I layed, 3 grit runs tonight, 7pm, 12am , 4am, more for the morning but that won’t be me! Day off tommorow then! I do think to myself how nice it would look with no salt melting it away, just once don’t worry all my route was gritted, camvey, benfleet, thundersley, every main road gritted! You should see how many roads are on my route, we grit smaller roads too!!
  14. Precipitation building near burnham om crouch, building south, if it keeps building further south may form a band of snow.
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