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Bangers & Flash

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    Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Update from Convective Weather for Monday too, narrowing down the slight risks: https://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-24

    Day 3 Convective Outlook

    VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 24 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 25 Jun 2019

    ISSUED 20:58 UTC Sat 22 Jun 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    On Monday morning, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of Ireland across the Irish Sea to northern England, along the rear side of the frontal rain. This will continue to lift northwards into southern and eastern Scotland and out across the North Sea as the day progresses.

    In its wake, a second shortwave impulse will arrive by late morning or the afternoon, and so a second round of thunderstorms is possible, particularly over northern England - but possibly some areas farther south too, depending on the timing/phasing of this shortwave. At a glance, forecast profiles look capped to surface-based convection, and so it is quite likely much of this activity will be elevated. That said, isolated surface-based convection cannot be ruled out, especially where initially elevated convection can root within the boundary layer. The environment is likely to be well-sheared, with both reasonable speed and directional shear present, enabling cell organisation. Hail and flash flooding may be problematic. This potential may be somewhat contaminated by hints of some frontal (dynamic) precipitation running up from the south at times too.

    Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland on Monday afternoon / early evening in the post-frontal environment - although here, with closer proximity to the upper low, the environment will be less-sheared and so "pulse type" convection is most favoured.

    On Monday evening, a shortwave over Biscay combined with isentropic upglide as a renewed pulse of very warm, moist low-level air advects north/northeastward will result in another round of elevated thunderstorms, though this time the steering flow will tend to drift these towards SE England and eastern parts of East Anglia. There has been fairly uniform agreement amongst model guidance for the track of these to shift farther to the east than earlier signals, and should this trend continue then it is possible the majority of thunderstorms could skirt to the east of England entirely.

    This extended outlook provides an overview of the most likely forecast evolution during this forecast period - destabilising plume events are often fraught with uncertainty, and it is very likely certain aspects of the forecast will change as the event draws closer. 

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