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Bangers & Flash

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    Marple, Greater Manchester
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  1. Heard a few rumbles of thunder from the cell towards the North West. Signs of convection to the North and in the now clear slot to the South too.
  2. Starting to see distant strikes from here now to the west and those to the south lighting up the clouds
  3. Amazing how quickly things have initiated. Love nights like this, how Mother Nature can keep us on our toes.
  4. I note that ConvectiveWeather mention initiation mid/late afternoon over France in their forecast but this hasn’t happened as expected - how does this impact the evolution of the forecast from here?
  5. A passing shower here from mid-level cloud, but can see clearer skies to the southwest
  6. Good luck tonight everyone! Hoping to be in prime spot here for later and luckily off work tomorrow too...
  7. Warm, still and humid with signs of convection but not anticipating anything here this evening or tomorrow other than rain
  8. Light rain here currently from what I’m guessing is mid-level cloud
  9. Update from Convective Weather for Monday too, narrowing down the slight risks: https://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-24 Day 3 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 24 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 25 Jun 2019 ISSUED 20:58 UTC Sat 22 Jun 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan On Monday morning, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of Ireland across the Irish Sea to northern England, along the rear side of the frontal rain. This will continue to lift northwards into southern and eastern Scotland and out across the North Sea as the day progresses. In its wake, a second shortwave impulse will arrive by late morning or the afternoon, and so a second round of thunderstorms is possible, particularly over northern England - but possibly some areas farther south too, depending on the timing/phasing of this shortwave. At a glance, forecast profiles look capped to surface-based convection, and so it is quite likely much of this activity will be elevated. That said, isolated surface-based convection cannot be ruled out, especially where initially elevated convection can root within the boundary layer. The environment is likely to be well-sheared, with both reasonable speed and directional shear present, enabling cell organisation. Hail and flash flooding may be problematic. This potential may be somewhat contaminated by hints of some frontal (dynamic) precipitation running up from the south at times too. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible over parts of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland on Monday afternoon / early evening in the post-frontal environment - although here, with closer proximity to the upper low, the environment will be less-sheared and so "pulse type" convection is most favoured. On Monday evening, a shortwave over Biscay combined with isentropic upglide as a renewed pulse of very warm, moist low-level air advects north/northeastward will result in another round of elevated thunderstorms, though this time the steering flow will tend to drift these towards SE England and eastern parts of East Anglia. There has been fairly uniform agreement amongst model guidance for the track of these to shift farther to the east than earlier signals, and should this trend continue then it is possible the majority of thunderstorms could skirt to the east of England entirely. This extended outlook provides an overview of the most likely forecast evolution during this forecast period - destabilising plume events are often fraught with uncertainty, and it is very likely certain aspects of the forecast will change as the event draws closer.
  10. Certainly an exciting week of weather and model-watching ahead. Intrigued by the forecasts published by Convective Weather, the Met Office and PJB over on UKWW for this area (NW England) for tomorrow and early Monday and keeping a close eye on any updates. Good luck everyone - look forward to reading updates and seeing photos/videos as the week progresses.
  11. Picturesque cloudscapes here as the showers have passed through. Only one direct hit though with a few rumbles earlier on.
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