Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

ShinyDave

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    108

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ShinyDave

  1. ShinyDave
    We had rain, I think - at the very least we had cloud cover that should have produced some and the radar said it did, although I never heard any - but it's all gone properly bright and warm again. Less warm, and a bit less bright - there's actual cloud cover - but still with the feel of capital-S Summer whether you like it or (like me) not. Hopefully this is a gradual off-ramp to an innocuous week ahead. But as someone who suffers from anxiety and sound sensitivity, I fear a thundery breakdown over the next 36 hours...
  2. ShinyDave
    Getting something of that here too, a couple of degrees warmer and the clouds seem to have no idea whether to drop the deluge or not but they're there blocking out the evil daystar. It's coming home It's coming Weather's coming home...
  3. ShinyDave
    Both more prolonged and also a more westerly focus - certainly here in South Wales it has been every bit as bad as July was, but for longer. I want to be super excited for the end of this but that would imply having feelings right now.
  4. ShinyDave
    OOF yeah I just noticed my area is showing less of a rainfall prospect than before. Not none, but less, and in the circumstances not nearly enough. The evil daystar seems to be muted after today but...
  5. ShinyDave
    As someone who doesn't adjust well to most sensory input (temperature included) as a result of being autistic, I must say I thought today would feel even worse than it did (although I've been entirely inside and downstairs). Got to the point where I think I'm dreading the thundery breakdown - again, sensory overload - more than I am the continuation of the heat? I do feel quite excited about the prospect of feeling cold again though... can hug my (even more heat-sensitive) partner a lot more
  6. ShinyDave
    And of course this season started a bit earlier than usual. This would have been the first rather than second Premier League weekend in most seasons, but the season got bumped to prevent a major tournament being played in even worse conditions than this. In 2003-4 the Premier League season started on 16 August, the then-record temperatures came the weekend before. There were Football League matches that weekend; Millwall-Wigan on 9 August 2003 (when multiple London stations, including Greenwich not far from The Den, recorded 36C) may have been the hottest, and this will likely not quite be topped today. The Community Shield the next day would have been the undisputed record-holder, but that was the Wembley reconstruction era so it was played in Cardiff. The Women's Euros took place last month of course, but there were no games on the 19th and the two games on the 18th were 8pm kickoffs in Rotherham and Manchester. Despite that, the former (recorded by UEFA as 35C) is still a contender for being the hottest professional football match ever played in England, at least at kickoff.
  7. ShinyDave
    Oh joy I'm at the "I'm terrified of the thunderstorm that ends this" stage of the heatwave. But at least it would mean an end to this heatwave...
  8. ShinyDave
    This, tbh. 2022-23 would be the worst possible timing for anything like the kind of winter we saw in 2010-11 given the energy prices (and their geopolitical context!) - and that is the context for which I would hope for a mild winter this year. (A wet one, too. Significant infrastructure is crying out for a winter full of frontal rain.) In a vacuum, I too would happily take a winter full of sharp cold and plenty of snow, especially if it meant avoiding dangerous Atlantic storms like Eunice (the single most terrifying buildup to a weather event I can ever remember). We don't live in a vacuum. And so as @Sunny76 said, a cold winter (even without that context, but dramatically moreso with it) would have a death toll to dwarf this heat - and it's not like the death toll from this heat is small either, the provisional estimate for last month's heat storm was 1,000 excess deaths.
  9. ShinyDave
    That's really interesting - could it be particularly evident at the moment because the drought conditions over most of England reduce how much heat the ground absorbs? That feels like the sort of thing that models could plausibly miss as a variable even if it has a material effect.
  10. ShinyDave
    ...and, of course, "GFS goes too high" was the prevailing assumption for their long-range forecasts last month right up until they actually happened...
  11. ShinyDave
    My preferences skew quieter than yours but wet and windy weather always feels so much better as a prospect when the alternative is... this. Even ignoring the duration problem, this is going to be as bad at the peak as last month was for us because the peak is more westerly... If this is the new summer normal, Lerwick is going to be a property market hotspot - pun not intended...
  12. ShinyDave
    Don't think anywhere in SE Wales got past the 35C mark last month - models plural now to suggest that somewhere will this time. Certainly looks like this heatwave will have a more westerly peak than the last.
  13. ShinyDave
    Just along the Severn Estuary here and dreading it too! Could not believe when some of the models suggested we'd get it about as bad as anywhere in the UK to be honest. Might genuinely end up being worse than last month was, and for longer. *cries penguin tears*
  14. ShinyDave
    More than a few critical pieces of infrastructure need one... That's the bit I really don't get. I understand that many and perhaps most people actually like the evil daystar on some level and benefit as much from its presence as I, with penguin-like thermal preferences and bat-like lighting preferences, benefit from its absence. But when it starts adding disruption to an already disrupted infrastructure...
  15. ShinyDave
    The thing with the long-term model runs a couple of weeks ago was that they showed there was always the heat there to tap into, it was just a matter of if the setup would do so. And here we are. Curious about this GFS run showing the Sunday maxima in the Severn Estuary area? Pretty sure that would be some local station records going if this chart's on the nose.
  16. ShinyDave
    That sounds absolutely terrifying - sympathies. Dreading this spell. Doesn't look like we'll be far short of the peak we reached last month, and it'll be for longer.
  17. ShinyDave
    2018 was pretty egregious for anyone of a remotely penguin disposition too, but while we've had more cooler relief spells than I remember that one having, even they haven't tended to be rainy! Last month was genuinely a heat storm (and I think the levels of damage and disruption need that kind of analogy to understand), looks like this week will be more attritional. But we got off somewhat lightly this far west compared to the East Coast Main Line corridor's "is this an error?" levels... genuinely possible that for us in this location it's as bad as July ever was...
  18. ShinyDave
    Indeed we're firmly into that, although as of right now nothing is forecast on that front. But certainly late summer and early autumn forecasting is greatly complicated by the possibility that a post-tropical cyclone will come along and change everything. And even without one in play at the moment, early August forecasting looks quite ever dispersed enough.
  19. ShinyDave
    Brr-exit! Thanks for that laugh @TomSE12! Just started to rain here. Considering the hay-like texture of some of the grass around, I will very take that.
  20. ShinyDave
    Not getting the rain here (and we need it) but almost as grey and cool... this is the British weather I know and love. As long as the thunder doesn't come this is about as good as weather gets for me from my sensory-sensitive point of view
  21. ShinyDave
    It's so nice to be able to actually use upstairs rooms again! Just hope I don't need to use them to hide from thunder today. And then the weekend where I am looks manageably bad, especially if this week gave me a chance to acclimatise? Even a little?!?
  22. ShinyDave
    And to think so much of the model chat was "the models delaying it means it will never happen!"
  23. ShinyDave
    I can see why people would want bright clear blue skies - because most people aren't like me and sensitive enough to bright light that they wear tinted glasses indoors - but I cannot comprehend the idea of being actively adapted to temperatures well past 30C. I'm sure the bafflement is mutual, especially for those of us who are genuinely cold lovers as well as heat haters! (I'm not truly a cold lover, but I am a ways-of-dealing-with-cold lover. Was delightful to be able to sleep under my weighted blanket last night!)
  24. ShinyDave
    Does suggest the 39.9 was, as suspected, an automated ceiling of some kind. (The existence of which would be telling itself - 40C was meant to be an error, and is now a real number that can really happen.)
  25. ShinyDave
    It remains incredible to think that we can even have these very specific discussions about the validity of 40C readings plural in the UK. Even with the models saying it was in the realms of theoretical possibility a couple of weeks ago, and then settling on that possibility over the course of last week, to actually see real readings really starting with a 4 is just difficult to comprehend. No wonder they're being so intently checked. 2003 was seen as symbolic enough at the time with a 1.4C leap over the 100F mark, but this is provisionally an even bigger chunk out of the record and into the kind of territory that millions want(ed) to dismiss as scaremongering. Dangerous business indeed to give those millions any possible hint that they might be right.
×
×
  • Create New...