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ShinyDave

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  1. ...well that's no fun for this heat-sensitive couple in Newport. ...it might be the peak in terms of temperature in the SE too, if this run for Norfolk is any guide?!? I mean, the GFS Operational line literally threatens to break the scale...
  2. There's definitely the potential to go higher than today, it just might blow up on us. Literally, I guess, seeing as a thundery breakdown would surely be in play if the cloud cover comes in to thwart the run at a July record. GFS 12Z still showing 34 over Norfolk and I seem to recall that being seen as a conservative model in these scenarios? But the other models seem to go the other way, so... eh. It's surely going to come down to cloud cover or lack thereof, so one way or another tomorrow is likely to be spectacular.
  3. I also absolutely preferred that weather to this. The snow and ice were difficult for me as someone with coordination difficulties, but at least it was pleasant to be inside and snuggle up in heavy clothing and/or under multiple duvets. No such joys exist in this weather, and it's just as difficult to go outside. ...in the daytime, at least. Nights are a bit more manageable, but that's just made me even more nocturnal than I normally am
  4. Depends on ability to prepare indeed, and that will vary! For some people, cold is more disruptive because of dangerous conditions on footpaths and roads. That in turn creates disruption for food supplies, certainly in snowy conditions like in March this year where everyone stocked up on bread (helpfully we had two loaves in the freezer!). But for other people, heat is more disruptive because it slows everything drastically down and there's not nearly as many ways of dealing with it. Ultimately both can cause significant inconvenience for most people and significant danger for vulnerable individuals. The difference is that this kind of weather gets positively cheered on by a lot of people, which is beyond infuriating for someone like me who finds it legitimately disabling.
  5. Just looked to ONS data myself. Interestingly, while winter in general does produce much higher death totals than summer, severe cold doesn't seem to produce nearly as clear a link to excess deaths as severe heat. There were more excess deaths in the winter of 2011/12 than the two much more severe winters before it! (I would say that excess deaths from both are absolutely in part a preparation issue in terms of looking after vulnerable people.)
  6. I'm autistic and have sensory processing issues at the best of times. Ditto my husband. And for both of us, heat is something we're sensitive to. Thankfully we're in SE Wales rather than SE England, but even if it's not as intense here it is still relentless. We've only slept in the same bed once this month, and that was in an air-conditioned Premier Inn. In Lancashire. (And we were there because of a family funeral. The statistics about more people dying in heatwaves and it being hard to know how many of them died because of the heat feel all the more personal when your husband's mourning the loss of his dad during one...)
  7. Always difficult to put a figure on "how likely is it that one weather station out of dozens in this area will produce a number above this" of course. What does seem clear is that tomorrow and/or Friday will join the pantheon of historically hot days in this country along with 10 August 2003 and 1 July 2015. Obviously it's interesting to see what records if any fall, but the real story is that those are the comparisons. Even by this summer's standards, this is an escalation.
  8. Looks like there's one line that's creeping ENE still, with the right side of it over Caen and the left side halfway over the Channel, but the added strike rate is coming to the east of that... the latter looks like the best bet for an actual UK storm I presume?
  9. Beachy Head feels like a great spot. All of that downland is a good place for storm-watching because of how much vegetation there isn't.
  10. A31, surely? Junction 2 M27 might be a good holding station, there's a Premier Inn off that junction and the car park has some views to the south.
  11. Popping up to 420/min just now! However, it looks like the bulk of that is the mess creeping out slowly ENE over Brittany, so how much in the way of an actual import flow are we going to get?
  12. I was going to say you should probably go east further than that right away and then I realised that from Swindon your alternative to going via the A34/M3/M27 route is... not great unless you're committed to going right the way to Brighton. So yeah, hitting the M27 and then keeping on churning along the A27 as far east as you need to is probably the way to go.
  13. I think I only really got terrified of storms when there was one that struck about 100m away from me in 2004. You do not want to hear that sound in bed at 6am when you're already oversensitive to noise...!
  14. Nothing wrong with that! Funny thing is I don't like the storms but I love the excitement on here, the photography that can sometimes come out of an event like this... and all the updating on where the action is, even if in my case it serves as a warning to go into bat mode and hide under a duvet with headphones on and the world hopefully off. (I'm autistic, and find loud noises and flashing light overwhelming most of the time. Unpredictability makes them worse, so storm tracking really helps me!)
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