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Sardonixs

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Posts posted by Sardonixs

  1. 2 hours ago, jules216 said:

    I will be skiing in Austrian Alps first time in my life during Christmas so I hope this warmth  will be gone by then  

    It is a very slow start compared to some of the previous La Nina esque autumns which bring early shots of cold to central Europe.

    Looking at EPS from this morning I struggle to see how are going to achieve the advertised amplified pattern in vicinity of UK near the end of the month.

    Well thank goodness its only November. 

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

    The model ensembles still do build high pressure over the UK but not till day 15ish, of course the question will be what happens to that high afterwards.  But the theme of high pressure over the UK does seem to drifting from mid month which was showing a week back towards the final third of the month now. 

    • Like 1
  2. BCC updated its long range model overnight and showing the same sort of change in pattern mid-month as CFS /EC46

    md2018096nh_h5d2_3.thumb.gif.f0de5dd60e71d36e19c2be1609087e6d.gifec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018092400_672.thumb.png.6f3497bc195349386ac2a72d9ef2bc4e.png1077729217_cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_2(1).thumb.png.448ddc2b49a6ba881da648c836556a89.png

    EPS clusters are showing the change showing up high pressure in the majority at 240 hours:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018092512_240.thumb.png.8895611c2af4540863752280c061a496.png

    but in a majority by the end of the run

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018092512_360.thumb.png.2301d31a1d2b09233a87cda5810568f7.png

    Things certainly to be firming up on a pattern change past the first 10 days or so of October. 

    • Like 2
  3. 54 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    Tonights day 5 FAX chart

    The beast is already arriving (528 dam line which the usual benchmark for proper wintry conditions).

    fax120s.gif

    You can also see the potential for showers from the disturbances marked by the troughs on the chart.

    Dont think I have ever seen a dry line marked on a surface pressure chart for the UK, like there is to the west on this one.

  4. THough I would highlight this campaign that the NUJ is running as its becoming a more common issue.

    https://www.nuj.org.uk/campaigns/useitpayforit/

    Increasingly more and more news organisations are asking people if they can use pictures people post on social media (for free) as long as they give them 'credit'.  Apart from the fact that if you are lucky enough to take a picture that generates interest from news organisations you are entitled to make some money from it.  They still have to give you 'credit' but you also get a bit of money in your pocket.  If you are one of the lucky ones this could be in the 4 figures (there are some examples in the article).

    But the bigger problem is for photographers who make a living from taking pictures at newsworthy events.  If the media outlets can get pictures for free then why do they need to buy the pictures from the photographers?  If not careful news photography will go the way of stock photography where the income that can be made is too low for photographers to make a living from it. 

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