Sardonixs

Yea, there is no model on tonights runs that does not bring some disruptive gusts to parts of the country midweek, hopefully things won't verify with gusts this strong

No its 12z but only have clusters for 252 hours instead of 240 for some reason..

GFS Clusters, 25% go for something along the lines of the op at day 10, 15% something closer to the ECM

The model ensembles still do build high pressure over the UK but not till day 15ish, of course the question will be what happens to that high afterwards. But the theme of high pressure over the UK does seem to drifting from mid month which was showing a week back towards the final third of the month now.

coldies can relax, end of the ECM was a clear mild outliner

Latest JMA picks up on the same theme as the other LR models of a mid-month switch from high to low pressure dominated setup

Does anyone know what this little guy is? Rat, mouse,vole?

BCC updated its long range model overnight and showing the same sort of change in pattern mid-month as CFS /EC46 EPS clusters are showing the change showing up high pressure in the majority at 240 hours: but in a majority by the end of the run Things certainly to be firming up on a pattern change past the first 10 days or so of October.

It quiet close to is mean through the majority of the run, goes out on its own right at the end. Spread in the GFS and ECM ensembles at 10 day is about the same.

Looking through the ECM members and there is an almost 50/50 split for Sunday with 23/50 going for a deep low around the country, the others leaning more towards the op run. GFS looks pretty evenly split as well, despite its op runs being more bullish.

Been one of those horrible days were not quite warm enough just to wear a shirt but too warm for a jumper/coat. At least tomorrow looks a bit brighter

Another cracking weekend looks like we will have a few grey days at the start of the week before things improve with the chance of a storm to spark some interest.

Ended up with 4mm of rain yesterday. A touch of frost first thing this morning, up to 11c now bright but quite a bit of high cloud around.

Ended up with 17mm here, with the rain clearing away about 4pm. Now the 'warmest' its been all day at 8c.

Miserable is the only word to describe tomorrow - the only upside is that it looks like it will be the low part of the week weatherwise: