Sardonixs
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Posts posted by Sardonixs
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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
But UKMO > all as it was the only one that had the icelandic high retrograde when ECM / GFS sunk the high
Anyway watch over the next day or so as things improve to a colder & colder outlook..
@Sardonixs Thats 00z
No its 12z but only have clusters for 252 hours instead of 240 for some reason..
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2 hours ago, jules216 said:
I will be skiing in Austrian Alps first time in my life during Christmas so I hope this warmth will be gone by then
It is a very slow start compared to some of the previous La Nina esque autumns which bring early shots of cold to central Europe.
Looking at EPS from this morning I struggle to see how are going to achieve the advertised amplified pattern in vicinity of UK near the end of the month.
Well thank goodness its only November.
The model ensembles still do build high pressure over the UK but not till day 15ish, of course the question will be what happens to that high afterwards. But the theme of high pressure over the UK does seem to drifting from mid month which was showing a week back towards the final third of the month now.
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BCC updated its long range model overnight and showing the same sort of change in pattern mid-month as CFS /EC46
EPS clusters are showing the change showing up high pressure in the majority at 240 hours:
but in a majority by the end of the run
Things certainly to be firming up on a pattern change past the first 10 days or so of October.
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37 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Has the ECM got any backing ?
It quiet close to is mean through the majority of the run, goes out on its own right at the end. Spread in the GFS and ECM ensembles at 10 day is about the same.
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Looking through the ECM members and there is an almost 50/50 split for Sunday with 23/50 going for a deep low around the country, the others leaning more towards the op run. GFS looks pretty evenly split as well, despite its op runs being more bullish.
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Been one of those horrible days were not quite warm enough just to wear a shirt but too warm for a jumper/coat. At least tomorrow looks a bit brighter
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Another cracking weekend looks like we will have a few grey days at the start of the week before things improve with the chance of a storm to spark some interest.
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Ended up with 4mm of rain yesterday. A touch of frost first thing this morning, up to 11c now bright but quite a bit of high cloud around.
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Ended up with 17mm here, with the rain clearing away about 4pm. Now the 'warmest' its been all day at 8c.
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Not a bad day today with the rain clearing pretty quickly and then fairly decent afterwards, lets hope can get at least one decent day out of the Easter Weekend.
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Been a decent couple of days here, even though its not been sunny been pleasantly mild, tomorrow looking decent as well before at all goes downhill from there:(
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54 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
Dont think I have ever seen a dry line marked on a surface pressure chart for the UK, like there is to the west on this one.
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THough I would highlight this campaign that the NUJ is running as its becoming a more common issue.
https://www.nuj.org.uk/campaigns/useitpayforit/
Increasingly more and more news organisations are asking people if they can use pictures people post on social media (for free) as long as they give them 'credit'. Apart from the fact that if you are lucky enough to take a picture that generates interest from news organisations you are entitled to make some money from it. They still have to give you 'credit' but you also get a bit of money in your pocket. If you are one of the lucky ones this could be in the 4 figures (there are some examples in the article).
But the bigger problem is for photographers who make a living from taking pictures at newsworthy events. If the media outlets can get pictures for free then why do they need to buy the pictures from the photographers? If not careful news photography will go the way of stock photography where the income that can be made is too low for photographers to make a living from it.
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Had about 15 minutes of light snow this morning followed and about half an hour of gruple late afternoon but apart from that been dry. Not holding my breath about getting any snow over the next couple of days, but at least should get some good frosts.
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What are peoples thoughts on the conditions on Saturday evening? My son is going to the observatory at Greenwich with his cub pack to star gaze. A few days ago looked like might get some clear skies but thats looking pretty unlikely now?
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Looks like some in the region may have something to look forward to overnight, I'm only at 50mASL so think I'm going to be kept waiting for my snow fix
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As mentioned above another dull as dishwater morning this morning. For December so far had an average temperature of 5.3c and 49.3mm of rain.
Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yea, there is no model on tonights runs that does not bring some disruptive gusts to parts of the country midweek, hopefully things won't verify with gusts this strong