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Snowy Hibbo

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  • Interests
    Meterorology with a focus on long range forecasting and climate drivers .
  • Weather Preferences
    Snowfall obviously.

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  1. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/14/european-winter-outlook-2019-20/ Here is my European and UK winter seasonal forecast for 2019-20. We should see a troughing and more snowy pattern in January and February, with a more average pattern in December IMO. Thanks everybody
  2. The current snowy pattern is due to an underlying base state that is still quite negative in terms of AAM and a tropical state which is more progressive in terms of the expansion of momentum. The combination of a MJO Phase 6-7-8 progression and the underlying negative momentum anomalies have introduced Scandi blocking and potentially -NAO (+ 10 days) responses to the brief tropical momentum progression. You can see the meridional pattern induced by the negative momentum anomalies in the medium term by the polarised difference between the block and the trough. Anyway, today I have also released my seasonal winter outlook for the UK and Europe here https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/14/european-winter-outlook-2019-20/ Playing with ideas presented in the short-medium term applied to the seasonal forecast, as well as looking at stratospheric and other factors in terms of applying it to the likes of January and February.
  3. I’ve just been going around and around in circles with the European forecast. It’s a bit all over the shop. I can concur with your idea though, something I have been mulling over. My European forecast for the season should be out later this week
  4. As @Met4Cast uses in the chart above, there is a significant cold anomaly right in the middle of the Atlantic. So that could help spur the -NAO and a colder winter for the UK. This isn’t the final forecast, this is just the last one I do for the entire globe, hence the global charts. I do a specific final UK/Europe forecast, where hopefully I have a bit more stratospheric guidance. But yes I am banking on a SSW at some point. I do see perhaps a good chance for some strat warming in November/December though. And there’s plenty of factors supporting the potential for a SSW anyways.
  5. You beat me to it! Thanks @Summer Sun Snow & Ice conditions good for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. MJO largely good for European and UK snowfall, perhaps less so later in winter. Similar for Eastern US and Japan. Oceanic ENSO good for Japan, Southwest US and Eastern US. -AAM good for Europe, Eastern US and Japan, less strong later in winter. Stratospheric conditions favourable for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. Solar minimum favourable for more snowfall for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK. Atlantic favourable for a snowy UK winter and colder Europe. QBO favourable for Eastern US, UK and Europe. North Pacific favourable for Eastern US, less so for PNW. All this is good for a snowy winter IMO, contrary to the models (yes I know, bold, but I have the reasoning to back it up :) ).
  6. For example, have a look at this -AAM analog I used. Showing some potential for a -NAO/Greenland block, with the trough lying over Europe, but still with potential for a cold winter for the UK. Though this is just one driver/idea.
  7. Chill out. The UK could see a -NAO pattern that would bring a colder winter for it and the rest of Europe. I did discuss Europe in the outlook. It explored the different model solutions heading towards a winter +NAO, and then I explained why this may not be the case.
  8. Take a look at my fresh seasonal outlook. Looking at a +NAO in the models and a -NAO in some of the drivers. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/09/27/late-september-northern-hemisphere-2019-20-winter-outlook/ Early, good season for Japan, Eastern US and Europe. A decent season for California, a poor season for the PNW, Colorado slightly above average perhaps. Early Siberian High development, with a potential SSW later in the season. Nina-esque atmosphere, cool neutral-weak oceanic La Nina. EDIT: Please use the Seasonal Forecast Thread to respond/discuss this forecast. Thanks. BW. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4084894
  9. Take a look at my fresh seasonal outlook. Looking at a +NAO in the models and a -NAO in some of the drivers. https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/09/27/late-september-northern-hemisphere-2019-20-winter-outlook/ Early, good season for Japan, Eastern US and Europe. A decent season for California, a poor season for the PNW, Colorado slightly above average perhaps. Early Siberian High development, with a potential SSW later in the season. Nina-esque atmosphere, cool neutral-weak oceanic La Nina.
  10. In terms of the 2019-20 Winter Outlook, so the countdown begins: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/201...-seasonal-2019-20-winter-preliminary-outlook/ Some ideas here: A strong winter Aleutian low A +NAO favoured by models and Greenland ice cover. Perhaps some -EPO blocking A warm neutral ENSO state. A good outlook for Japan, Northern Alps and Western North America An opportunity at a decent winter for the Eastern US, per some indicators. And probably a wetter and more mild winter for the UK. That said, there is a good environment for SSWs, so we might see more -NAO like conditions later in the winter As for Dorian, per the UKMO and EC, it should move up the coast, rake the East Coast, Georgia, SC and NC. Gets quite close to the Carolinas on both models. And quite deep too.
  11. In terms of the 2019-20 Winter Outlook, so the countdown begins: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/201...-seasonal-2019-20-winter-preliminary-outlook/ Some ideas here: A strong winter Aleutian low A +NAO favoured by models and Greenland ice cover. Perhaps some -EPO blocking A warm neutral ENSO state. A good outlook for Japan, Northern Alps and Western North America An opportunity at a decent winter for the Eastern US, per some indicators. And probably a wetter and more mild winter for the UK. That said, there is a good environment for SSWs, so we might see more -NAO like conditions later in the winter.
  12. Sorry I should have said with a 10 day lag, here you go: https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2012/12942-prediction-madden-julian-oscillation-and-its-impact-european-weather-ecmwf-monthly-forecasts.pdf Thanks for your comments above, those analogs are interesting, but I do believe the reality of the Nino event we have been through this season, kind of changes the definition, and ultimately is telling to watch the atmosphere is doing in terms of momentum transport and propagation, compared to using oceanic ENSO measurements. Sorry to have to say the obvious, but I do go beyond that initial idea.
  13. My final long term forecast for the season for Europe, and my seasonal forecast verification: https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/02/europe-on-long-term-23rd-feb.html Looking like a +NAO zonal setup is likely into the month of March. This means the U.K. might start to see quite a lot of precipitation in the first half of March, and potentially beyond.
  14. Here is my thoughts for the snowfall situation in Europe. You can assume that a -NAO setup will be ideal for a snow lover in the U.K. https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/02/europe-on-long-term-2nd-feb.html "All and all, the models show a increasingly snowy Northern Alps. But I expect a -NAO setup in the last two weeks of the month and into the early days of March, that tends to support the Southern Alps (and the UK) in terms of snowfall and building troughing scenarios. In the medium term, we should see an atmosphere conducive to snowfall across the Northern Alps, and perhaps as we move forward, more so towards Austria, at least expect more cold there if anything."
  15. https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/01/europe-on-long-term-jan-19th.html An extract from my latest long range outlook below. "My overall view is that from the last week of Jan to the second week of Feb, will feature major snow risks for the Southern Alps and the UK. There will be plenty of cold around, but not so much snow for the Northern Alps. We should see a neutralisation in the later stages of the month." The outlook includes my thoughts on the GWO (click image below), and my thoughts on the latest EPS 46 run.
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