TonyH
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Everything posted by TonyH
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Mondays is undoubtedly not a polar low
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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday
TonyH replied to Met4Cast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Rain reports over NI so its official this is the first ever rainy polar low to hit the UK! -
Mostly rain over NI currently you cant have a rainy Polar low..
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Its just part of this internet age dumbing down of things we are getting more and more! Polar Low My A--E! Roger always seems to go overboard with storms cant see 70mph let alone 100mph.
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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday
TonyH replied to Met4Cast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Seems a bit extreme Roger - that would surprise me there were 100mph gusts over Pembrokeshire tonight! -
Good chance you have more snow but after midnight mainly.
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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday
TonyH replied to Met4Cast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Nah back in the 70s you knew it was a polar low alright, it put down a foot of snow in 6 hours at -5c! -
Well it wont be here until midnight so we shall see, I shall be surprised if it gives snow accumulation here though. I tried to say that in the PL thread but it is definitely the real deal according to them I remain a devoted polar low skeptic!
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Like you I have my doubts to me they sit in very cold sub -5c 850 air, have very heavy snow, and are basically all snow events. This one has a relatively mild sector and will not be snow on its SW flanks.
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Pretty sure it will be rain or sleet for most of us, the usual hill snow in the north and east. It has a mild sector (relatively speaking). Of course if it is a true polar low it may have died out before it even gets here!
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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday
TonyH replied to Met4Cast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Not convinced, a polar low proper would be sat in at least sub -5c 850s and be an all snow event. This will be a wintry mix event, it has a mild sector within it. -
Cold and windy today, occasional wintry mix showers, some briefly heavy with hail and snow. A few sunny intervals. Fresh west/ wnw wind gusts to gale force. Min 2.5c yesterday evening Max 4.2c @ 1045 Rain yesterday 3.9mm Rain since 0900 today 2mm approx Est sun 1 hour Max gust WNW 39mph @ 1520 Currently Rather cloudy 3c/ 82%/ 982mbar rising steady
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Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday
TonyH replied to Met4Cast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It is not being considered a true PL on UKWW: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/107044-polar-low-29-jan-2015/page__pid__929706#entry929706 -
Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday
TonyH replied to Met4Cast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Perhaps this is just that modelled secondary though? -
Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday
TonyH replied to Met4Cast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
But a true polar purely gives snow I think? -
Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday
TonyH replied to Met4Cast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Quite it was 'picked up' as early as last weekend -
Tracking the potential Polar Low - Thursday into Friday
TonyH replied to Met4Cast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It was showing as secondary formation as early as last weekend on the models not sure its a true polar low, thought the 850s had to substantially colder in those? March 1970 actually and yes that was a true polar low residing in -10c uppers. -
Its a normal secondary low just coming from well NW, it was being modelled even last weekend when I produce my weekly outlook (I mentioned it in that it could well give a longer spell of sleet or snow tonight). True polar lows exist in very cold air often sub -10c at 850mbar level.
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Except its not a polar low
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Decent snow and hail showers settling a bit.
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Look a normal shower line to me.
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Twitter friend reports TL loud St Clears recently.
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Not a polar low with 850s this high!
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Dont worry its snow with you very shortly its snowing heavy at my parents in Rugby now.
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Hailstorm set my car alarm off!
