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comet

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Everything posted by comet

  1. comet
    Again very happy how things (including how the models may play out ) for next week with a good possibility of snowfall for a number of locations albeit rather Temporary.
  2. comet
    Well my persistent harping on about the Alaskan ridge and the down Welling from the strat is being realised on the 12z gfs run. Should add some interest next week. Hate to say told you so, (it's so childish and willy waveish) but........
  3. comet
    Again the charts offer some optimism during the Christmas holidays with the Alaskan ridge morphing into an Arctic high and applying enough force to send the jet further south leaving some areas prone to the possibility of some wintriness. For more southern areas we would need to see the jet modelled even further south whether that is achievable is jet to be seen. The ECM is not very inspiring tonight it has to be said but that is just one op run. Something maybe afoot in the far reaches of FI with a reasonable warming being forecast and making inroads into the Arctic rather than skirting round the surf layer. Of course it could quite easily disappear but something to watch.
  4. comet
    This could be quite beneficial with regard to heights in the Arctic especially if it were to find an extra 20,000 ft or so.
  5. comet
    Surprised at some of the dismissive posts tonight towards the model output. I for one am more than happy at the trends being shown, backed up imo I must add by the strat charts that I have been posting recently. Lets see where we are by Friday the model runs could have a much more wintry flavour to them by then.
  6. comet
    T192 and jet being pushed further and further south by the Arctic high as I alluded to in the post above. Things definitely moving in the right direction tonight. In fact t192 is not far off of a snowy chart.
  7. comet
    It comes as no surprise, have been banging this drum for several days now and hopefully we will either see better ridging in the Atlantic in coming days or the Arctic high forcing energy further and further south, If and its a big if things went our way we could see some very wintry charts developing in the days ahead. But one step at a time.
  8. comet
    So the 18z shows over 24 hours of snow for east/south east England from around t190 to t216. Love the pub run.
  9. comet
    I was of the thinking that by showing the anomaly charts you could see where any forcing is taking place rather than the broad brush of the mean. The wave breaking several days back at the 10mb level is without doubt the reason behind the Alaskan ridge and cold surge that we engulf a number of states in America over the coming days rather than MJO, Glaam , GWO etc.
  10. comet
    Way to much emphasis in here on EPS, GEFS, GloSea, Met etc etc they have all proven to be wrong many times in the past including the not to distant past and they will be again. The trend in the operational runs of the nwp models look quite positive and so does the progression of downwelling in the strat. I would expect to see further increases in northern blocking and a much colder pattern developing post Christmas. below are 30mb composite charts from the 14th and 16th this forcing downwelling from 10mb. This forcing started from wave breaking around the 8th and another slightly weaker one around the 16th. Below the composites for 50mb below the composites for 100mb on the 14th and 16th
  11. comet
    That would be my interpretation of where we are headed as well. Glad I'm not alone.
  12. comet
    Fully expected to see a stronger ridge pushing into the Arctic and would expect to see further strengthening in the runs to come. This courtesy of wave breaking into the strat several days ago and downwelling into the trop, Regardless of the AAM and GWO budgets. Models could, repeat could look very different in a couple of days time. Not in time to prevent a green Christmas though for most people.
  13. comet
    Thanks again.
  14. comet
    Not knocking GP or Tamara but all they do is offer their own views of where the different teleconnects etc are taking us rather than just using the models in isolation. As such they can like the met or any other longer range forecaster be wrong as we have seen in the past and will likely see in the future. The models do not offer great viewing at this present time that's for sure. Hopefully this will change in runs to come.
  15. comet
    Positive changes in model output so far today. Ridge from Alaska looking stronger with each run could mean the UK finding itself in a colder wintry pattern within the next 10 days as pressure builds to the west north/west allowing a growing nw/se trajectory. With more changes expected in the near term rather pointless looking to far ahead. As some have said a white Christmas or at least snow falling could now be on the table for some at least.
  16. comet
    Would be interested to know how to override the scale. As you say the plots look more consistent and less confusing. Didn't think to check the mean my bad. Thanks. This wave breaking will hopefully provide some fun and games when it works its way down into the trop.
  17. comet
    So the scale refers to differential between the two heights, thanks.
  18. comet
    Trying to make sense of these two composite charts below. The first is from Dec 9 and the second Dec 13. The composite anomaly charts seem to show geopotential heights increasing with time over northern most Canada while decreasing over northern Europe and Russia yet when you look at the scale on the right this seems contradictory. Am I missing something here.
  19. comet
    Just view the UKMO run and its not without interest, certainly moving in the right direction.
  20. comet
    Low res and it all implodes. earlier signs are more promising though nothing to get excited about in the next week to or more at least.
  21. comet
    ah gfs finally beginning to smell the coffee with the extra amplification into the Arctic from Alaska (pacific side) should be a much better FI we will see.
  22. comet
    It has been a great start to the season with several weeks of very entertaining model output and just recently the coldest and wintriest spell of weather for many in the UK unfortunately the timing could not be worse heading towards Christmas to see a pattern change to much more mobile and milder conditions. Hopefully strat forcing will see a return to much more interesting weather and model watching post Christmas into the new year. A fair number of the 06z gefs show what could be around the corner so not all doom and gloom.
  23. comet
    Didn't quite go according to plan but the t240 chart shows a lot more promise going forward than the muck the gfs op produced. Amazing how the gefs can vary from raging positive AO and NAO to a tanking AO, NAO I suspect myself this is to do with the recent warming and geopotential heights that are working their way down from the mid strat into the lower strat and thicker denser troposphere and also rate and which they are likely to do this. Patience may be the key here although I would of thought that a cold pattern response to this would reveal itself by month end hopefully. This is not always the case though but I would rather hedge my bets on this than on the effects of the MJO which as we have seen in previous winters can be a red herring although if the atmosphere (QBO) etc is in a favourable state then the benefits of a strong MJO event can be very rewarding.
  24. comet
    Could be in for a good tale end to the 12z ecm tonight. Will no of course in another 20mins.
  25. comet
    Wow what a horrendous 12z run the worst by a country mile so far this winter. Well the only way is up from there. The difference between that and the 06z run post t192 is laughable.
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