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comet

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  1. As others have said little sign in the output at the moment of any Atlantic mid latitude highs trying to ridge north. Do not for one moment believe though that this is because of low AAM or Nina signal that would be plain wrong. From what I can see at the moment is that wave 1 forcing is pushing the vortices down towards our side of the pole from the Pacific and without really any wave 2 response despite being told heights over Alaska and Scandi are conducive to wave to propagation going forward (another red herring) we would really need to see a strong phase 7-8 signal in the mid to long term.
  2. Sorry do not buy that at all. That is one hell of an assumption with very little proof if any at all.
  3. I have been touting the likelyhood an East/northeasterly due to strat/trop forcing towards end of Jan into Feb for a while now, but it really all comes down to the magnitude of the mjo forcing and strength of wave1.
  4. Dire output from the models this morning if it's cold your after. Slowly and quietly the models have down graded the Atlantic ridge and reverted to the dross they were showing last weekend.
  5. Here's hoping the ecm 12z does not verify (not that it will anyway). The last thing we want is to be chasing toothless easterlies with little chance of verifying. Hoping for something far better than that even if we have to wait a wee bit longer. Certainly not the most positive afternoon and evenings model watching from a coldies perspective that's for sure.
  6. Glad to see normal service has resumed with the model output returning to the pattern it was showing before it went awol on Saturdays 18z run and Sundays runs. Would be interesting to know exactly what caused the models to flip like they did. Anyway things look back on track and an east or north easterly airflow looks almost to be a dead cert ( if there is such a thing with the weather ) by months end into February as I have mentioned a few times lately. Have to say though good call from MR Murr yesterday when he (many posters myself included thought we had been led up the garden path yet again), refused to believe the implosion seen by the synoptics on display. All to play for again now with confidence very high of potent cold spell just around the corner.
  7. Very disappointing model viewing it has to be said. It certainly makes you feel that this model watching is a complete waste of time, commentating on charts at plus t168 then everything implodes and charts at t96 etc can not be trusted. Not trying to have a dig but even positive posts from those that follow the teleconnects more closely look to have come unstuck. I have never been a fan of the NOAA updates as they never seem to offer much assistance and sure enough the last update I read on here mentioned a more amplified upstream pattern over the states which would have benefited us yet the reverse now seems to be the case. Warming is still being advertised in the gfs strat charts but this has been somewhat delayed and watered down from what the charts were showing three or 4 days ago although it does look as though there is now more of a response height wise with the vortices becoming more stretched again at 10 and 30mb. If this trend continues then a split may well be evident in early February. Some of the more favoured areas likely to see some snow (perhaps significant) this week while for most the chance of some wintry showers with maybe a temporarily covering.
  8. You definitely get the feeling that something is brewing as we head towards late Jan and on into Feb. Even the ecm t240 chart although going the way of the pear for us has a very promising configuration especially for our side of the pole. Coupled with strat forcing and a favourable MJO signal charts like the gfs 12z op is showing may not be far fetched at all and may well be bettered over the coming days. That is a long way off though and much water to get under the bridge before then especially with what's being modelled for the coming week. My concerns being pehaps not as cold as the gfs would have us believe nor as snowy apart from the more favoured locations.
  9. Judging by the Euro models it looks as though the GFS is a couple of degrees low on the 850 temps and if so will make a big difference to where lowland Britain will see low land snow and accumulation. As far as the gfs FI goes it is just that FI at the present time.
  10. Trouble with the slider, runner call it what you will, is, unless its a very shallow weak low its has the effect of flattening the Atlantic ridge thus turning the flow more westerly than north westerly and subsequently the low takes on a more northerly track. If this has already been mentioned then ignore.
  11. Still no sign as yet of the forecasted warming having much of an impact. The warming at present just seem to be skirting the surf zone. Of course this could soon change, hopefully.
  12. Another rather coldish spell on the way by the looks, with some snow around although not worth going into to much detail at present. Of course further north with elevation it may well be a noteworthy spell of weather to come but certainly no freeze for the majority of us. The forecasted strat warming is now evident in the ecm Berlin charts and forcing from this MAY temporarily shorten any colder synoptic pattern we are in as it changes the dynamics and structure of the atmosphere ( it would not be the first time this has happened) but hopefully we will reap bigger benefits from this as we enter February.
  13. Looks to me as if the strat/trop coupling is as always dictating the pattern ahead, with perhaps conflicting teleconnect signals always playing catch up. Way to early to know how big a player the strat warming is going to be but if things go our way it could lead to the holy grail of weather synoptics if my feelings are anywhere near correct. We may well see the cold pattern relax due to wave 2 forcing waning prior to hopefully very large AO response amplification and proper winter freeze as we go into February. Very interesting times ahead and any strong MJO forcing is likely to inhance AO amplified pattern hopefully.
  14. Regardless of what the Glosea5 model is showing (probably just late to the party) if the strength of warming remains the outcome at this early stage is impossible to forecast. Perhaps in 5 to 10 days we may well see a strong wave 2 response being forecast which could make things very interesting going forward end of Jan into February.
  15. Another very strong warming showing up on the 18z gfs (strongest yet I think). Someone better fix the GloSea 5 lol.
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