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61 Very Good
  1. I still would not discount a cold/ very cold spell establishing itself in 6 to 10 days time. Still plenty to play for. The Jarma charts for what they are worth are good.
  2. If the outcome in 7 plus days time is anything like what we are seeing tonight on the pub run remember the lowly GFS 18z delivered it to us first.
  3. I said a few days ago that the models could be making a meal out of the troublesome lows in the Atlantic that are hindering height rises north this could still be the case. By Sunday we should definitely know one way or the other what sort of weather we can expect the weekend after next. The EPs, Met etc will be no benefit either. I'm afraid they to have been just as fallible.
  4. I have seen this before but there is no trace of it in the lower strat when you look on the ESRL daily mean composites charts above 100mb. Just realised I should of been looking at the anomaly charts rather than the mean. Good to see that the records back each other up. I had been dubious of the ESRL charts for a while now because of this. Cheers.
  5. Seems to me that Mr Cohen does not have a Scooby do about what may happen or may not happen. So much for a -QBO = weak vortex, this may be due though to the fact that it has been allowed to build unaffected in the mid to upper strat because of the disconnect and little if any wave breaking in the upper strat. I think I am correct in saying that the infamous cold spell of Jan 87 was the result of a decoupled trop and strap with little in if any signature of raised heights or warming above 50 or even 100mb.
  6. Quite positive output tonight from a coldies perspective. I do wonder though if the models are over milking these spoiler lows but if they do manage to scupper a significant cold spell with a very conducive AO and NAO then it really will be a great chance missed. I can only assume these mid Atlantic spin off lows are a result of the Atlantic sst profile. As I said before though fingers crossed the models are making a meal out of them.
  7. The Ukmo charts again look positive. The 0z t120 chart almost identical to the 12z 144 chart yesterday when i said the high closest to the UK would slide away southeast with delayed Atlantic heights then building. This can clearly be seen on the 0z t144 chart this morning with post t144 looking very promising. Nothing to get hung up about I would expect a good afternoon and evening model watching to come.
  8. Good runs tonight. lets just hope they now build on this and not backtrack into another pickle again tomorrow.
  9. Good model output so far tonight even the UKMO run is not to shabby although a slight delay in Atlantic height rises until the high just to the west of the UK slides away southeast. Definitely get the feeling that there could be colder upgrades on the way. Lets hope the ECM run keeps up the positivity tonight.
  10. Yes I would take the ukmo t144 chart over the other two without question. There seems little point looking beyond this time frame until the models can reach agreement.
  11. The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    Take what the Met say with a pinch of salt, that would be my advice. Mind you If they happen to be right then a pinch of salt for winter 17/18 would probably be about right.
  12. Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

    You are quite right. If memory servs the lowest actual figure we can obtain is 69.5
  13. I would not worry yourself to much, we had plenty of this in depth analysis during the summer, last winter etc, etc which at times was less than accurate shall we say. There are no experts on this or any other forum that know what lies ahead during the coming months.
  14. Wave 2 geopotential height rises in FI now showing on gfs instant weather maps. Got to be one of the longest sausage shaped vortices at t300 70mb before heading towards a split at end of run at 50,70 and 30mb. Now that has got my attention.
  15. There was warming in the strat prior to the cold spells of 09/10 and Dec 10. Also more importantly we had increased geopotential heights up to 30mb and above None of which is being shown in the strat forecasts.