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  1. Lol at the ECM. Never seen such poor inconsistency as this from the model. Some of the old rules are the best, if something works leave it alone. They should have kept that in mind years ago. Deep cold and heavy snow now showing up regularly in the ens and this is the direction of travel regardless of any shortwaves etc, we should be concentrating on. Strat in total control over next few weeks, no need to get any more technical than that.UKMO run on the money this morning. ECM in the bin.
  2. The 12z run so different from the 06z in the earlier stages, therefore not much confidence in what it is showing although it will probably show what most poster want to see in the extended and FI range.
  3. Well it didn't take long did it for the models to show a stronger more northerly block. Already I think we are nearly at the stage now where we can almost guarantee a very cold continental set up for Europe and the UK. The question will then be how cold and how snowy. It certainly looks as though we are in for a very wintry couple of weeks at least, starting in about 8 to 10 days time. How often can you say that at that time scale with confidence. Not surprised to see NOAA lagging behind they always do when there is big pattern change.
  4. I would of thought that as the models get to grips with the SSW the blocking will be stronger with more latitude. Peak blocking I think could be anywhere from late Feb till second week of March. Just my opinion of course. The gfs ens look great but I think there is much better to come with some really mouth watering charts.
  5. The gfs still manages to muck it up with a highly unlikely FI but at day 13 plus I suppose it can be forgiven for losing the plot. Of course a very encouraging run in the earlier stages with quite a potent and snowy easterly. What we want to see now is model inter run consistency with all three converging on the same synoptics. Just one day out but it looks as if today is the day when the models start to show some consistent downwelling effects from the strat into the troposphere ( don't let us down EC). Ens should be make for some great viewing tonight I would of thought.
  6. I posted this on the 5th of Feb. Despite some peachy runs showing a qtr I still think that the timing ( 25th to 30th ) holds true. How often have we seen the models to quick to jump when a big pattern change is on the way. This again looks to have been one such time. Still plenty of time to get some serious cold and snow over the next two to four weeks.
  7. Quite agree the strat will be the main player for several weeks. The high AAM and MJO is all linked to the strat warming and now that is in decline the strat forcing will take over. The ECM should smell the coffee soon.
  8. Yes.even one or two of the more experienced and knowledgeable members were getting flustered by a couple of rogue runs. Winter is most definitely on the way.
  9. GFS has made a complete dogs dinner of it again lol not that this run bothers me in the slightest. looking forward to the mornings runs. cheers.
  10. Some posters yesterday suggesting even saying that posters were trying to second guess the outlook. Well no guessing here. Its going to get very cold and very wintry. If the Scandi high is the correct solution for initial trop response ( I think it may be slightly further west) then any regression will I would of thought help to bring colder uppers In quicker. By Sunday there should be no more hiccups from the models with all (except UKMO of course because of its range ) showing some magical winter synoptics.
  11. You never know if everything falls in place we could see a period of weather ( cold and snow wise) that could make its way into British folk lore Can not wait until we see the first heavy fall of powder drifting snow that will lay for many days hopefully.
  12. Good to see the gfs smelling the coffee but I think the actual outcome will be much, much better than this both in terms of snowfall and cold. Looking forward to viewing the ens.
  13. I think some posters and people just viewing the thread should realise that this run is very much a distinct possibility in a couple of weeks time. Virtually on par with Jan 87.
  14. A warming such as this with the split almost straight to our north should almost certainly deliver the goods. We have seen frigid cold spells from less. I would be rather disappointed if the best we can manage when all is said and done is -11/-12c uppers (although they are plenty decent enough). I am confident we will see some very snowy periods as well. Great model watching to come I am sure.
  15. This is a downwelling strat split. The vortex split is still 2 or 3 days away at 10mb. To get a signature like we are seeing in the trop at day 10 which is just over a week from said split at 10mb is a very quick response. Synoptics will then get better and better and better. With such a strong signal I would have thought by Sunday many will be salivating at what is around the corner. Patience Grasshopper, patience.
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