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Comandante

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Posts posted by Comandante

  1. Just now, snefnug said:

    But they have made a quite marked statement and given euphoria on mad thread, what is likelihood as an outcome?

    I think it this stage we are more likely to see the cold pool over the UK rather than south of it. The GFS 6z and most recent GEM, ICON and UKMO all back this up. Previous GFS and most recent ECM had the cold pool sinking south and a less cold (but still cold) NE to Northerly set in after a shorter-lived blast from the east.

    The 12z's from the GFS, UKMO and ECM will be crucial this afternoon/evening I feel.

  2. 40 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

    12z ecm. Saturday lunchtime. As expected, the breakdown has commenced. Showers and lots of cloud moving swiftly in. High uppers moving swiftly from west to east. 

    ECM1-96.gif

    The very same ECM has warm uppers across the bulk of the country and very warm uppers still clipping the SE at midday Saturday. The warm air stays over the country through Sunday and indeed Monday too. It'll be a little cooler then yes but still above average.

    96_mslp850.png?cb=94

    120_mslp850.png?cb=94

    144_mslp850.png?cb=94

    Fresher conditions finally make it across the country on Tuesday,

    168_mslp850.png?cb=94

    • Like 2
  3. 11 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

    I fully believe that to be conservative at the very least. I would love that to be the case don't get me wrong but just expect the worst.

    Can I ask for clarification regarding your opinion that we'll struggle to even hit mid twenties "going by the latest output"? 30C looks very achievable Fri and Sat especially in the favoured SE spots.

    • Like 2
  4. 4 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

    So... The downgrades have begun. Was as late as sunday/Monday yesterday now the latest 12z has the breakdown during Saturday. So the traditional 3 fine days and a thunderstorm it is then. Knew it was too good to be true. Never mind. It's still early days in the season.

    I link you to the ensembles...

    gefsens850London0.png

    gefstmp2mmaxLondon.png

    • Like 2
  5. 5 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

    So... The downgrades have begun. Was as late as sunday/Monday yesterday now the latest 12z has the breakdown during Saturday. So the traditional 3 fine days and a thunderstorm it is then. Knew it was too good to be true. Never mind. It's still early days in the season.

    It's a cool outlier. Most show the heat lasting into Monday. It's a dangerous game assuming one run in isolation will be correct. Best to hang fire and see the full data set before getting the razor blades out.

    • Like 7
  6. 29 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

    A really depressing forecast from Paul Hudson just now if you like your cold and snow!  

    I just cannot believe how much this cold spell seems to have imploded over the last 24 hours.  

    Can we at least squeeze out a covering of snow before the end of the weekend?

    Edit - At least the latest ECM run gives us coldies some hope from around mid month!

    It  seemed realistic to me?

    It is disappointing that those hoping for a good covering of snow are likely to be let down, but in fairness this cold snap didn't promise such an event anyway.

    Snow  showers most frequent in the east. I don't believe that any model forecasted more than a  dusting of snow over the weekend. The GFS precip charts are low res so can give the impression of greater snow  chances - whereas in reality we are looking  at snow showers with the greatest chance of accumulation over eastward-facing locations at elevation.

  7. 21 hours ago, Nick L said:

    Chelsea have never even looked like being caught this season, fair play to them.

    Bookies could be paying out a hefty sum on Leicester for the second year running, could get odds in excess of 50/1 for them to go down at the start of the season.

    It is indeed a strong possibility that Leicester could be relegated. I was interested in a  few discussions pundits were having over the weekend suggesting Ranieri could soon be sacked. In my opinion if they lose to Swansea away  then they should sack him. There is no room for sentiment in  football,  and Leicester's relegation would be very costly.

    You look at Hull who are improving under Marco Silva, as are Swansea under Paul Clement. Sunderland are  turning a corner, too. Only Palace are rivalling Leicester for bad form at the minute. The situation could be very dire come Easter if Leicester fail to improve. 

    Rowett could be  a good choice post-Ranieri.

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