Comandante

Can't see any backtracking now from this westerly nudge everything has had over the last 24 hours. Could well be heading for a westerly -NAO pattern.

Too progressive perhaps? Though it has been a recent trend to introduce less cold uppers to the south towards the end of next week. Too far out to really worry about anyway.

I think it this stage we are more likely to see the cold pool over the UK rather than south of it. The GFS 6z and most recent GEM, ICON and UKMO all back this up. Previous GFS and most recent ECM had the cold pool sinking south and a less cold (but still cold) NE to Northerly set in after a shorter-lived blast from the east. The 12z's from the GFS, UKMO and ECM will be crucial this afternoon/evening I feel.

It's a possibility and nothing more. That scenario has existed ever since this easterly was first modelled.

How is it more progressive when it isn't until Tuesday when the fresher air arrives, despite "the breakdown commencing Saturday"? Bizarre post!

The very same ECM has warm uppers across the bulk of the country and very warm uppers still clipping the SE at midday Saturday. The warm air stays over the country through Sunday and indeed Monday too. It'll be a little cooler then yes but still above average. Fresher conditions finally make it across the country on Tuesday,

Can I ask for clarification regarding your opinion that we'll struggle to even hit mid twenties "going by the latest output"? 30C looks very achievable Fri and Sat especially in the favoured SE spots.

Any evidence or just a hunch? Even the BBC and Met Office forecasters are predicting the strong possibility of 30C anytime between Thurs and Sat.

I link you to the ensembles...

It's a cool outlier. Most show the heat lasting into Monday. It's a dangerous game assuming one run in isolation will be correct. Best to hang fire and see the full data set before getting the razor blades out.

It seemed realistic to me? It is disappointing that those hoping for a good covering of snow are likely to be let down, but in fairness this cold snap didn't promise such an event anyway. Snow showers most frequent in the east. I don't believe that any model forecasted more than a dusting of snow over the weekend. The GFS precip charts are low res so can give the impression of greater snow chances - whereas in reality we are looking at snow showers with the greatest chance of accumulation over eastward-facing locations at elevation.