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About MattStoke

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    Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

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  1. ICON ramping up the rainfall total's Friday/Saturday again. Widely 50-60mm of rain for the Midlands and Wales. 80mm or so over hills. 24 hours or so of continuous rainfall for some. Aperge not too dissimilar but with the core of the largest rainfall amounts a little further south and including the South West.
  2. Which raises the point that increased northern blocking, caused by low solar activity or otherwise, can also lead to some areas (including the UK) being exceptionally mild. All depends on where exactly that blocking sets up and what side of the blocking we're on. We saw a lot of northern blocking through this summer, which is probably why it was a poor one but with some extreme temperature spikes. Nothing is ever straight forward in the world of weather!
  3. CET was 0.7 degrees above average for September and is bang on average for October so far.
  4. Low solar activity is supposedly linked to increased northern blocking which can lead to colder winters for North West Europe. That doesn't necessarily mean colder temperatures globally though.
  5. Don't know whether this has already been mentioned but, the Euro4 model is now on Meteociel - WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine EURO4 0.04° du UK MetOffice (météo angaise) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est... High resolution model that runs out to +52 hours. I believe it's one that the pros look at for short range detail.
  6. Foggy morning Plenty of moisture in the ground to fuel the fog.
  7. First mention of wintry precipitation this season.
  8. ICON mounting up the rainfall totals for Friday.
  9. Isn't that model just a higher resolution version of the GFS, drawing off the same data?
  10. A recurring theme throughout the summer and Autumn so far. Frontal systems bringing copious amounts of rainfall to the central swathe of the UK. No doubt that pattern will change as soon as we're into the winter months and the systems that would have brought snow in those cold months will finally bugger off.
  11. Probably hills only. Unless we get some very strong evaporative cooling.
  12. Some wet snow for the top of Snowdonia and the Pennines. Cold rain elsewhere.
  13. 2 in a row? Every winter is a letdown compared to what the models show in ‘FI’
  14. Sounds like high pressure to our north/north east into November, with low pressure to the south/south west. That would be an interesting setup in winter.
  15. -8'C uppers into the South East. Would make for a nice and 'seasonal' Bon Fire night.
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