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MattStoke

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    Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

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  1. MattStoke

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    My photo on tonight’s national forecast.
  2. MattStoke

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Day after day of boring, dreary weather now. People were actually rejoicing at the arrival of this weather. Unbelievable.
  3. GFS 12z for this time next week. Blowtorch incoming.
  4. 18z has warmer uppers further north and over the southern half of the UK next week.
  5. MattStoke

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Reached around 30’C here. Hottest day of the year so far, but cooler than my family in London have seen on many days this summer
  6. GFS ups tomorrow’s max to 35’C. Add the usual 2/3’C, and the July record could well be under threat.
  7. Well it reached 35’C around London today with lower uppers. Only thing that might scupper it is cloud cover.
  8. ECM builds high pressure too far west to advect the warmest uppers towards the UK. Would still be warm/very warm.
  9. Very dry ground (aside from some rain the next few days), unusually warm SST’s and a large heat pool across Europe. If we can tap into that heat being shown on the models, records will surely go. Will be a chance missed if we don’t!
  10. I hope it’s a cold outlier Weekend will be a shock to the system. The coolest conditions for quite some time but there is still plenty of support for a return to very warm/ hot conditions from around mid next week. I don’t think rain amounts during the cooler blip will be huge either, aside from places that catch the thundery downpours on Friday. South eastern areas in particular may not see much rain at all.
  11. GFS puts the highest uppers on Friday further west again. It has modelled that so poorly.
  12. ECM out to 216 hours. Anticylonic and increasingly warm.
  13. Around 30’C would be my guess. Probably reaching 35’C in some south eastern spots. I think 36/37’C is a bit of a stretch for Friday. Might be a lot of cloud from the approaching frontal systems but you never know. There must be a decent chance if the pros think so and, like I said, you can normally add a few degrees to raw model output.
  14. Finally the GFS has the highest uppers further west on Friday and mid 30’s possible at surface level as a result. You can normally add 2/3 degrees to raw GFS output as well.
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