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Convergence

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Everything posted by Convergence

  1. Understand, my point was more that we're finally seeing some tentative but inconsistent nuggets of improvement in the output. As for SLP over Greenland I'd not usually take much note of something like a 1040 in that locale however 1060 or above I wouldn't automatically discard as purely topographic.
  2. GFS 006 gets interesting from 216 onwards. Watch the pressure rise rapidly over Greenland from 1016 @216 to 1060 @ 252hrs. Edit: 1st image is 252, last is 216, wasn't expecting it to load in that order ?
  3. There are some serious gusts and squalls around this evening. I've not poked my head outside but its howling up the chimney hear near Uckfield.
  4. Very windy here in E Sussex, tried to drive to Heathfield but road blocked by huge Oak tree across the road just past Blackboys. Decided to head home and do some work there. Definitely not a good time to be driving.
  5. It's just to the SE of me, probably 10 - 15 miles (I'm near Heathfield), almost constant flashes and bangs, the whole sky lighting up to the SE - the dog is not happy at all!
  6. Was snowing heavily for about an hour in Heathfield from just after midnight until about 1.20am. Pavements and grass white and some wet but white areas on the minor roads. Dark slush on the main road. It was actually some of the heaviest snowfall I've seen all winter. Will try and post a pic.
  7. To my mind things are definitely looking up again. And although she's cleared her throat a few times the large lady certainly hasn't broken into song just yet. Over recent GFS runs in FI the mild sectors are getting smaller and the uppers getting colder with each passing system. If we do see some wintry action it will probably be a repeating pattern of heavy wet snow failing to settle or washed away within 24 hours but I'd take that in an instant given the winter we've had so far. I'm seeing repeated active systems with lots of precipitation passing NW to SE and with uppers just cold enou
  8. Fair enough, wish I could find some reason to laugh about our winter though ?
  9. Not sure the Accuweather historical data is accurate with it's 1mm normal amount for January. Some other sites give a normal rainfall for Jan in Madrid in the region 37mm. That would make this years Jan rainfall for Madrid about 30% of normal which ties in better with the "dry and settled" for the rest of Spain and Portugal.
  10. Just had 10 minutes of wet snow in Heathfield which has now eased off. Temperature -3
  11. Two mates turned up on foot yesterday having got their cars properly stuck on the school run and were asking for assistance. The problem they have is they live on a lane that's steep, twisty and has virtually no traffic. I just managed to drive the first one out with the help of the two of them pushing but the other one was hopeless. It was interesting for me as my car is fitted with winter tyres and this was a similar car to mine but with "normal" tyres. The difference was absolutely incredible. On "normal" tyres it was almost impossible to do a 3 point turn on the flat and completely impossi
  12. It's moved across the channel really fast, looks almost at my location already. I might have to get out of a very warm bed and check for snowfall in a minute.
  13. If it was to stay as it is now, I'd say the issue is simply everyone else getting stuck and blocking the road. Wherever there's virgin or packed white snow it's quite a nice drive, wherever people have been spinning wheels or packed it down so much it's gone black then it's very icy. At the moment most cars and lorries on ordinary tyres are going to be stuck on every steep hill and If they remain stuck it's hard for the gritters to do their job. If you've got 4 wheel drive, winter tyres, chains or snowsocks you should be able to go everywhere there's nice white snow without any problems. If it
  14. Roads are pretty grim around here (Heathfield area), just been along the A267 (Heathfield to Frant/Tunbridge Wells) and traffic was stationary going down the hill between Butchers Cross and Mayfield. It was basically the first steep hill I came to and all I could see was nothing coming up the hill towards me and everyone out of their vehicles in the distance further down the hill. The uphill Eastbound lane was pure white with lots of icy slither marks and about 6 cars including a couple of 4X4's stuck at various points trying top get up the hill. There was obviously no way through so I did a
  15. Amazing, you guys are psychic, you answered my question before I posted it. This forum really is stunning!
  16. What's the latest forecast, is it supposed to intensify later or not until the morning, the forecast seems to have been continually evolving today and I have no idea what the latest thinking is?
  17. I haven't been able to keep up with the latest over the past few hours, what's the latest predictions for tonight the SE corner?
  18. If it continues like it is here until tomorrow (which it won't) we'll be well and truly buried.
  19. Blackboys. Really good snowfall still, 50p sized flakes, lovely and dry and falling heavily. Looks to be about 4cm now on the garden table. Can't see the other half getting to London in the morning.
  20. And here we go again, home in Blackboys and it's just started up heavy again. Cracking stuff.
  21. Just driven from Ringmer up the B2120 to Cross in Hand. Very heavy snow almost all the way. Big flakes, very dense and lovely and dry. Settling on the road such that by the time we got past Blackboys there was about 3 - 4 cm's on the road. For about 10 minutes it was one of the heaviest, most intense snowfalls I've seen and that's coming from someone who worked 8 seasons as a ski instructor. It's almost stopped now but looks like I'm about to go under another intense blob. This is looking very promising indeed. Temperature was -4 throughout and there's absolutely no issue about it settling on
  22. 3 @ 9am 2.7 @ 10am 2.9 now (10.50am) Blackboys, E Sussex. I reckon between 12 and 1pm I'm going to see some snow falling, but not lying.
  23. I'm feeling more positive by the day. Last night was slim pickings compared with what we really desire, but - I've got lying snow outside at the moment, I've just checked the 06z GFS and we've got a possibility of some back edge snow on Friday, followed by another (very slim) chance of some sleet on Sunday. After that, it's probably a few days wait before we can tuck into our starter before the main course arrives around the 22nd or thereabouts. And there's a very good chance that the main course will be an Eastern dish which always goes down particularly well in this part of the world.
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