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  1. Well you lot needn't worry too much as I'm thinking of takng my family to Laplamd this year which more or less guarantees it's going to be cold and snowy.
  2. I expect the ECM to back it later, looks like the GFS is lagging behind a bit a per usual.
  3. There's now talk of another warming, hopefully it ends up leading to more mid latitude blocking so we get a nice start to Spring.
  4. Really it's now time for model wathcers to either to looking for Spring weather or look for another Hobby, as for the sunspot count well at end of day that's just one variable just like other certain other background signals
  5. There still a chance of something but that would probably come at time when things are more marginal and most people are already over it ala February 2005.
  6. I see that the "potential" may now be shifting to late February, in real terms that probably means a toppler at best which is no better than offerings from recent winters.
  7. The better news from the 12z suite is that retrogression hasn't been completely muted, at least for the time being.
  8. Recent ECM runs, the retrogression may still get there on this run but it looks there's been a definite shift towards it.
  9. Dismiss the ECM at your peril, could tell very early on that this run wasn't going be good in the medium/longer term.
  10. There's definitely Febuary 2012 vibes about recent output, wouldn't surprise if 2nd half of the month did turn out to be above average, at least I got some Snowfall during that winter which was ironically when things were more Zonal.
  11. Can't help but get a sense of deja vu here, I'm pretty sure the ECM was the first to suggest a warm up/the strat not really playing ball back February 2012 and it was proven correct.
  12. The ECM isn't first to go with a swift breakdown, the possibility has been suggested/hinted at on previous runs, as for background well they didn't end counting for much in December 2012.
  13. One thing I've been meaning to ask since unfavourable trend started a day or so is it to with the Strat suddenly not looking as good or more to do with the dice not rolling in our favour post the warming effect?
  14. As I've said before after this winter has gone it'll take something akin to 09/10 or 10/11 to draw people back into the model watching hobbywhich is highly unlikely.
  15. It's not the first run to suggest as such either, there's been hints of it since yesterday's 18z, start of a new trend?, probably is knowing our luck.
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