Anon90

This would be taboo to say in the main MOD thread but lets be honest here once the dust finally settles on this latest model drama I think we all really know where things are headed....

Looks like a more typical winter type pattern setting in later on this run and you certainly wouldn't bet against it being bang on money.

The ECM 00z didn't look that great to me this morning so not surprised about the latest update, what we really need to see is a trend towards what the GFS 12z was showing yesterday (very wishful thinking I know)

'Colder weather ' as in colder than the upcoming days and my thoughts areprimarily based on what the morning output is showing, that said due to all of the uncertainty over the arctic high you can't completely rule anything out.

There still a chance of colder weather next week but based on current available data it looks to be just a blip (at most)

Just when you're finally about to give up the chase the model's do something to pull you back in, hopefully the ECM doesn't play pooper again later.

I just had go and open my big mouth to my parents about things turning colder and now it looks like the trend is mild again. God damn it!

What further reinforces my point is this chart: tbh I expected a stronger consensus on a stronger PV by this point but as of now that certainly isn't the case which means we're still very much in the game.

Things don't quite go to plan on this run but the state of the northern hemisphere makes me keen to keep on watching.

So is that it then? Drip, drip, drip here.

Looks like the weather predictions weren't far off after all, it been cold and dry for the most part in this Runcorn old town micro climate.

At this moment it looks like a breakdown to milder conditions is an inevitable, we can only hope that this a case of 'waxing and waning' as some have suggested and not a permanent return to the usual heights to our south/lows to our north setup.

Not even that here in this Old town micro climate lol

I hope against hope that you're right, that was one of the biggest falls of snow I've ever seen if not the biggest.

So in terms of Snow falling in the Merseyside/Halton/Cheshire area which time period looks most likely?, still tomorrow night?