Barmada_Casten

Yes I totally understand what you mean. I think the downgrades for these latest cold runs will begin in the next 12-48 hour timeframe. Them que the nw emotional rollercoaster with the high of chasing the fantasy delusional 1947 winter outputs - to the peak of being on the cusp of it - to the downgrade and breakdown ..... the big dip for white Christmas and then back round and round again till the end of March.

Yes, I’m trying to make it clear to a lot of people to expect the inevitable downgrades and disappointment as this cold spell will not deliver what it is showing now - however I only end being orchestrated and accused of being a troll. As I have said, the key to being a good weather forecaster, wether it be professionally or as a hobby, I’d to take into account past events. As an enthusiast it is important not to get too giddy or carried away. 19 years on this forum tells me every winter will be the same and people will continue to do so, but even if one person takes heed of this advice it is better than nobody. So in essence: *The current cold output will downgrade any time from to tomorrow. **Things will get cooler from next week as we transition into a late starting autumn. ***We will not see widespread heavy snow and sub zero temperatures with the exception of high ground in Scotland and possibly the highest parts of northern England. ****This winter will be largely mild, as most common British winters are with the odd interlude of cold and very occasional snow - however it will be nothing of major significance. Just wanted to get my point across before the wheels fall if soon!!!

The inevitable breakdown and downgrades will begin any time from tomorrow,’and whilst I do agree it will get colder in the coming weeks (it can’t realistically get any milder) I don’t see any sub-zero nights in the near-timeframe.

Interesting post, I am merely a few miles away and too noticed things seem slightly more ‘in bloom’ than usual for this time of year. I also saw a wasp yesterday which I don’t think I have ever seen in mid-November. I would attribute this to the fact that we have not had a total ground/air frost. With the high likelihood that this cold weather being spurred out by the models being downgraded to a whimper rather soon (believe me 19 years of experience counts!) one would really have no argument that climate change is really starting to affect our weather.

So I am wondering when the breakdown for the current cold snap being ramped up will be, I expect the downgrades to begin anytime from tomorrow! Let the 21/22 boom-bust cycle begin! I have been here 19 years I have seen it enough times!

Oh blimey, I have just looked at the radar. A band if intense rainfall is on-course.

The system has petered out and rain has all but ended here, which will give flooding and river levels a chance to subside quickly. It is surprising how quickly kevels go down once the rain stops.

Looking at the radar It would appear the rain and intensity in the Irish Sea appears to have intensified. The next few hours are crucial.

Worst case scenario is it stops around tomorrow afternoon, which is essentially pretty much 36 hours of persistent moderate to heavy rainfall and will cause some damaging flooding. The worst case scenario I envisage is the rain persisting beyond tomorrow afternoon and into Friday which would turn this Into a ‘superevent’. Another worrying thing to throw into the mix is that there is no significant period of dryness forecasted i the next few days timeframe.

Rain seems to have increased in intensity here. The morning is going to be Interesting and not in a good way.

In all fairness, I was actually only a few miles from Seathwaite in 2009 which was the location for the most amount of rainfall ever recorded in 24 hours in the UK until 2015. This event is reminding me very much if that. Where it was a case of ‘oh yeah we’re gonna get a lot of rain and it will flood to - hang on this is serious.’ If the rain co tiniest at this intensity until tomorrow evening and potentially, worst case scenario Friday afternoon - then this could be much, much worse. We are seeing significant flooding with another 24 hours if the same ahead of us. it is surprising have blazè some people are being about this.

There seems to have been a lul in rainfall here and looking at the system on the radar it appears to have nudged up and this could my well be it. Anywhere northwards is being hit.

It would take a biblical, end of times amount of rain for Derwent and Buttermere to join up!

Rain has intensified somewhat the last couple of hours. Road Inpassable from Ambleside and Hawkshead for normal vechiles.

Absolutely no chance for me, I think it will be the same as the last 10 - mild and wet dominated from the rest with the odd potential for snow and cold that will downgrade and fizzle into nothing. Buxton and Scafell Pike will get plenty of snow though ?? Anyway, back to the reason why I am here - the road into Ambleside is impassible for a standard car so o will try going towards Hawkshead and see how it is.

The lastest is that this period of rain and Intensity is set to last until Friday afternoon. The road from Ambleside into the Langdales is now impassible in parts. I am frightened.

I don't want to give my exact location away for privacy reasons, however I will say that I am just outside of Ambleside (within 2km.) Local roads may be passible but I know for a fact that flooding has accumulated around my area and some footpaths are inaccessible. River Rothay and Brathay are already very high. I know from my own experience living all over Lake District that, if this persists for 24 hours we are in trouble. In fact come morning we will have problems if it carries on. As I said the severity of the situation is worrying which is why I am posting - many of you will know I rarely post outside the December - March timeframe where my posts can be somewhat honest, but, controversial. I am posting now to give live reports on the ongoing situation. Fingers crossed for all of us in the Lake District right now. B.C.

Rain appears to have intensified slightly with the addition of stronger gusts of winds which is ominous. It has also gone dark. Rain is of the nature where it is moderate-heavy - not as torrential as during a thunderstorm, but persistent. And it is the persistency that is the worrying thing.

I rarely post here outside of Dec-March as I only get enthusiastic about weather in winter when there is potential for snow. I have posted this today because this could potentially become VERY serious. I will keep everyone up to date in the situation here.

I am in the Lake District, outside of a built up area and I am starting to get really frightened now. If forecast rainfall totals are believed to be true, and looking at the radar, rainfall amounts could easily exceed the 2009 and 2015 events. We are starting to see significant flooding and this is the only the beginning - we have another 24 hours of heavy rainfall ahead at least, falling on already over-saturated ground. This could potentially become very serious.

Almost perfect conditions for some quite intense thunderstorms for most parts of our region today, with some quite significant downpours.

A very Heavy rain shower a 16:45 for around half an hour or so with a coupon of rumbles of thunder mixed in. Not a thunder storm as such. First rainfall in a while which had cleared the air. Tomorrow has the potential for more for this location and the region as a whole, but it’s difficult to pin point exact locations and intensity at the moment.

29.C here (allegedly) in South Lakeland, could even be a degree or two higher. It has been consistently like this the last few days. Night times generally sit around 16.C although I am starting to get used to it, it is not pleasant. The best time to be outside is sunset when the temperature drops significantly in a couple of hours. A thundery cell appeared just north of me (around Thirlmere?) and headed in a south-easterly direction, giving thunder, lightning and heavy rain. However, it missed most populated areas in Lakeland and proceeded towards the Yorkshire dales. It did 'clip' us however, giving a minute or two of light rain in gloriously hot, sunny weather which was rather surreal. A welcome return to 'normality' (for some) for the region next week, with cloud, showers and daytime temps maxing in the early 20's and cooler nighttime temperatures.

Yes very subdued here now but very much looking forward to seeing a positive spring .

Yes although I must say that you can’t beat musing over the posts in the bleak mid-winter whilst eating a bowl of warm Cumbrian hot-pot and crusty bread followed by Spotted Richard with thick vanilla custard (all made using locally sourced ingredients of course!). I spent many an eve doing this during reflection over the last few weeks. I often put myself in the position of the shepherds working on the Cumbrian fells, especially over in the bleak eastern part of the county. It must be very cold and lonely work - certainly puts this into perspective!