Brucie

I also feel that people tend to rely too much on heating. I see loads of people around here walking around outside and inside in shorts and t shirts even in the depths of winter, and then come home to the comfort of a heated house. Yes, quite a lot of people have a genuine need to keep warm (these are the ones who we need to think and worry about) but those who just take heating for granted cause: a) increase in personal expense on heating b) needless pressure on national grid c) unnecessary carbon footprint Just use your sense and put some more layers on when your house is moderately chilly (15c). Below 13c, even I might think again though!! David, Northallerton

Thanks Ben for that explanation. Let's hope for some rain then! Thanks also, Bluearmy.

Don't often post in here - but read messages daily. We really are facing an exceptional spell of weather, irrespective of whether the extreme temperatures materialise. Charts are ominous also due to the ongoing lack of rain being forecast for much of England and Wales in particular. IF we potentially have electrical 'rainless' storms next week like has been noted, wouldn't that run the real risk of grass / moorland fires given the tinder dry ground??

Very vague. 'Precipitation' and 'wintry hazards' seem the buzz words at the moment. I think even the met office are struggling to predict what will happen in detail.

What is interesting to me is how organized the polar vortex is over on the Pacific side of the northern hemisphere so far this winter (and late autumn). Recent winters have seen the bulk of the vortex over on this side of the hemisphere (and an angry one too). Why is this? Can anyone enlighten me? If this keeps up, then surely the Atlantic sector would be much more prone to amplification? David

Thanks. -AAM at our latitudes is what we want then for the upcoming winter to hold interest. However, I feel that there will be other factors at play. What we primarily need is something to implode the increasingly strong polar vortex, be it consistent wave activity, heat flux. At least then we have opportunities for cold. Unless this happens, then I think any high latitude blocking will probably just manifest itself as a mid-latitude belt of high pressure at best.

I seem to recall that the developing La Nina did not couple with the atmospheric state in the summer. Is this right? Whatever, we are in a 'new norm' where nothing goes as planned. Mind, I suppose there's always been chaos theory regarding the weather.

I can think of worse ECM charts. At least there's no raging zonality with a powerful polar vortex forecast. One would hope that a prolonged period of southerlies in the UK's vicinity (as forecast) would result in WAA into northern latitudes and place some stress on the vortex. That's the hope!! As an aside, I can't remember such a projected period of southerlies in recent Novembers. (Or is my memory failing??). Maybe, just maybe, this winter will deliver some long awaited cold. David

Here in the NE of N Yorkshire, it has been a poor summer. Aside from a few nice days, it has been noticeable for the lack of sunshine and a lot of rain. A lot to do with the relatively southerly jet stream, IMO. Indeed, these last few days have taken a turn for the worse with yet more rain and gloom. Bring back spring! David in Northallerton

High pressure is not likely to be 'sat' to our north or northeast: it is likely to be 'sitting' to our north or northeast. Grrr...even the professionals are getting sucked in by the modern state of grammar! This aside, I have never known as much chopping and changing as frequently as this from the Met Office. David

Yes, I have been thinking of other variables that might be prompting doubts on this SSW propagating down into the troposphere and I did self-moot the fact that we are in the process of transferring into a wQBO, which may be an obstacle to complete propagation. However, one would think that there would a lag of a few months (4 or 5 months) from the start of transition in the uppermost layers of the stratosphere to the wQBO affecting the tropospheric patterns. The fact that we are having another major SSW taking place so soon after the SSW in February this year leads me to contemplate that, in a warming world, we will see more of these SSWs in winter. This is due to anomalous warmth persisting into autumn creating more and more vertical heat flux and wave-breaking into the polar vortex. What do others think? David, Northallerton

Finding it fascinating following the sun's activity during its descent into solar minimum. The latest uninterrupted run of spotless days (15) must be one of the longest yet in this cycle and we are almost inevitably going to exceed 200 days this year now. I struggle to understand why, if the sun is our main global energy driver, I have not heard more about the increasingly low solar activity as a natural factor in the current reports about climate change. Anyway, how deep will be the solar minimum go when it's here!! David

The weather looks to be stuck in a rut over the next week or so and quite benign too away from the N & W. Dare I say mild or very mild too! I guess this is typical of a jetstream which is meandering wildly and is weak in nature. It can't stay mild and dry for the rest of November...or can it?? Oh...I'm hunting for cold too but we have winter to come. David

I share other people's fear on here that these amazing synoptics for cold have maybe come a bit too early...but you never know. It has been a strange year for weather & something has definitely impacted upon the coupling up of the stratospheric and tropospheric vortex in recent years. Looking at the charts, I can see there's a lot of Alaskan / Aleutian high pressure reaching right into the Arctic. Is this what we should be watching for in the next few weeks if we want a continued disruption of the polar vortex & a possibility of a canadian warming? TIA David, Northallerton

Just had a very heavy snow shower here (lasted about 10 mins but settled very easily as it's so cold, -3c). Plenty more snow to come by the looks of things. How things have changed down here n the space of 45 mins!

Things looking more promising down here now...shower incoming and wind gusting.

Lovely day here in Northallerton (just on border of Yorkshire/E England and North East - in which forum do I post?? lol). Hopefully we'll get more shower activity again later as I am getting withdrawal symptoms.

If only this was January??! All models are firming up on agreement with this easterly flow. If / when it does occur, it will be one of these very rare (relative to the old days) very cold easterlies and we will definitely know about it! The prospect of ice days in late Feb is highly unusual. We may even get more than 2" of snow from this here in Northallerton. David

One of the recurring themes so far this winter has been for the Azores high to be displaced further in the Atlantic and to ridge up towards Greenland when opportunity arises. This is undoubtedly because of a weather pattern much more susceptible to amplification than recent winters (could low solar activity be partly to do with this??). Because of this, I cannot see a flat W-E jetstream take hold across the Atlantic any time soon. Now with the Siberian/Russian/Scandi high in play, this will add extra notion to my (hopeful) idea that the Azores high can ridge up to Greenland and eventually (within the next 10 days?) assist in backing the anticyclone Westwards. I expect we would have colder air to tap into by then. Remember, it more often than not takes more than one attempt to bring in a cold E'ly. This has been a very different winter so far for several years. It's almost unheard of in recent years to have had multiple snow events in England and Wales before the start of January. David, Northallerton

I actually think we have not had any very mild spells of weather this November, unlike a lot of recent Novembers. It is usual to get some very mild weather at some point. This potential mild weather is not forecast to be prolonged though and if it is to remain unsettled, then I can foresee a polar maritime airflow continuing into the start of winter, particularly as the Azores high seems to be displaced further N in the Atlantic currently. Cold, ice and snow can wait for the winter months. David

Thank you for your reply Yarmy. I always access solarham.net/solarflux.htm but the table does not populate. Does it work for you?

Talking of Penticton readings, I used to be able to access the Penticton daily readings on Solarham but am no longer able to. The table of daily stats. is not populated any more. How can I access these readings? Thanks in advance David

....but with an E-QBO this winter and the anomalous warmth in the Arctic, will the vortex be on 'steriods' this winter when/if it does couple with the troposphere, and will it be more vulnerable than in times of W-QBO to attacks from above and/or below? Questions, questions...!! Davd

I knew solar activity had been on the increase over the last few days but to see it so high today (highest for a long time) was a big shock. All things equal and comparing this stage of the cycle with the equivalent in previous cycles, one should expect an equally sudden fall in activity before too long...unless the sun is being molested with! David Northallerton P.S. There used to be daily readings of solar flux etc. taken from Penticton, Canada and these were shown on Solarham but there are no longer there. Does anybody know why?

Yes, proper cold winters tend to crop up when we're heading out of solar minimum, not when we're heading in (like we are now). Not saying that this winter will not be cold though. In fact, this current solar descent is proving to be quite rapid and it did not start from a high level of activity relative to previous solar maximas As always, time will tell. David, Northallerton