JBMWeatherForever

As ever it only takes very small changes in the near term synoptics for a major change further out. But that is particularly apparant at the moment. If the trend continues for blocking in the artic to strengthen, then we will soon be seeing a significant number of cold synoptic runs from the models, foretelling the commencement of a significant cold spell from the north east. The model output is looking very interesting and a cold and wintry christmas period is now more than a distinct possibility.

Seemed strange yesterday when only the GFS was going for a more prolonged colder outlook. If any model was suggesting the return of the Atlantic I would have thought GFS would be it , not the ECM (UK Met is usually somewhere in between in such battleground situations). Today it seems to have come back to what I would have expected, but the fact that the GFS has already shown us a colder outlook makes me think all three models will be doing so shortly.

Models continually showing interesting potential for cold during early December either from the north or the east. And even if we don't get a direct hit from the north, with the jet heading well south an increasing likelyhood of gradually developing our own cold pool with time.

Certainly at this range there is still a good chance of some very cold weather before January is out with plenty of time for upgrades as far as a northerly is concerned. Also with the Polar vortex heading for Scandinavia we could yet end up with prolonged very cold weather too.

Yes, hopefully today is the start of a more positive outlook with a possible major pattern change later in the month, but also if the current trend for the jet to move further south continues, then even more doors will be opened to cold and sooner than some seem to think.

Increasingly interesting from a cold perspective as we move into November, certainly looks below normal at the very least. November snowfalls a distinct possibility this year.

Strengthening signs of an early onset of winter by late October.

I'm going for below average but quite dry overall. 7.1c

Big improvements all round overnight ! Lets hope it continues. A slight delay in the near term, but hopefully this time it will be worth it !

Monday night /Tuesday looks good for snow showers through the north channel and into the Isle of Man as well. Also the milder incursion at the end of the week now looks very brief with increasing confidence of a very cold northerly blast as soon as next weekend, and then a very cold outlook after that. Certainly lots to look forward to !

With things still so finely balanced, any short term changes may still be enough to flip the charts back to an easterly, the very fact that the trend of moving away from the easterly has now reversed is very encouraging. Could we yet pull victory from the jaws of defeat - I would not be surprised, very pleased, but really not that surprised !

ECM looks better to me ! The trend away from an easterly seems to have been halted. This is still far from over !

Still to early to say "This ship has sailed", there is still time for an easterly for next week. Still much uncertainty, the models have still not settled on the final outcome just yet ! There also seems to be a perpetual theme by the GFS to bring us a north easterly eventually ! But maybe still later next week.

I don't think we should give up on next weeks easterly just yet, I quite understand how recent runs of the ECM and GFS have made many disappointed, but this complicated picture for next week has still not been decided and I would not be surprised at all if we get a flip back to an easterly again very soon - But perhaps more watered down initially from what GFS was showing yesterday. Also the further outlook is still a cold or very cold picture !

Thank you for the response which I totally agree with, but my point is that they are giving a forecast supposedly based on the current best information, and in it they are not stating that they don't know what is going to happen, or that the most current information favours a very cold outlook, they are boldly stating that it will only be below normal next week. Hopefully the 0z will be a step forward tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

The BBC News Channel weather outlook is stating, a few weeks of normal British winter weather ahead, but with next week having below normal temperatures, yet what we can see, shows the greatest likelihood to be for very cold weather next week with an easterly and the promise of more cold or very cold weather after that. I know that they no longer have the Met Office data to view, but they can still see what we are seeing so why is their forecast at odds with the current model output?

Just checked models for first time since yesterday and very encouraged by the continual theme of Very Cold air plunging south from next Wednesday. Infact it looks quite similar to December 2010 ! Some big snow totals by the end of next week especially in northern areas and then more generally.

At last some snow to look forward to ! Looking very interesting indeed for the last 10 days or so of January and beyond. Different scenarios being thrown about, but all seem to lead to the same eventual outcome - COLD and SNOWY ! The uppers might not yet be showing as excessively cold, but they are cold enough for many for most of the time, and the more borderline situations often lead to the biggest snow events. Eventually it may turn even colder anyway!

First proper sign from the models of a colder pattern developing for British Isles as the block gradually re positions itself with northerly developing eventually. Hopefully this will also be brought forward too.

Looking forward to lots of fine settled weather over Christmas with some frosty mornings in places making it feel a bit more seasonal and perfect for that Boxing day walk. Of course by then, we may have celebrated Christmas, but will likely be by then continuing to celebrate, but this time because of the model output that we will hopefully be seeing by or even before then. I really think that the continuing evolution we are currently seeing is moving in a direction that will start to show much colder scenarios quite soon, with quite a good chance that our much anticipated January cold starts earlier than currently expected too.

Output looks increasingly interesting as we head towards the end of the year, following a settled and potentially frosty Christmas. I think we may like where things end up though. Models still playing with how we are going to get there, but I think 'there', looks increasingly like a potent northerly or north easterly. Once the evolution is settled then the commencement of this cold spell may well be brought forward as well, perhaps before New Year !

The GFS 18's does look like a realistic possibility. Hopefully this trend will continue and gain more support. Snow for some over the Christmas period is a distinct possibility.

Latest Fax chart has the block further west again. I still think there is time for notable revisions in the next 72 hours, when the Atlantic actually hits the block. Its then that we could still see revisions in output, with more enhanced trough disruption for the weekend still very possible, and with a subsequent positive knock on affect for the Christmas period.

Latest Fax chart showing the cold air starting to filter in. Likely to see big changes soon in the output as the Atlantic hits the buffers and then just fades away! East is where to look , not west !!!

I don't think there is much point looking at the day 10 charts at the moment. Its the hear and know which needs to be looked at very closely, as that is what is continuing to trend us towards an eventual full blown easterly !