JBMWeatherForever
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Looks like north western parts will see quite a bit of snow during next week in the forecast synoptic set up. Northern Ireland the Isle of Man, North Wales, Lancashire, Cheshire, Staffordshire, quite favoured areas to get a build up of snow by the end of next week. Indeed significant snow chances for almost anywhere once the prolonged Cold Spell commences !
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Latest ECM looks good to me to, retrogression taking place, and then a repeat procession of northerly or north easterly outbreaks. Only very slight difference on this ECM run is the High seems to be intensifying a little which is good in terms of a prolonged cold spell. The initial High will give increasingly frosty nights and the exceptionally sodden ground will lead to Freezing fog over parts of mainland Britain, which in turn will keep temps very cold at the surface. Then when the blasts from the north and eventually north east develop the ground will be very cold.
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Significant and probably severe cold spell looking more and more likely for the UK , and in the heart of winter too !
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After a blip the cold spell is back on, again ! The GFS is showing some quite potent cold air for Christmas, again. It might be leading us down the Garden Path with the GEM, but perhaps there is a good reason for that. It's so we can get the sledge out of the garden shed !?!
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The GFS has consistantly for a number of days now, shown a cold north/northwesterly in the run up to Christmas. It's often the model that picks up on such trends before the others do, and the fact that it isn't dropping this evolution makes me feel much more optimistic of such an outcome than some on here seem to be. There is after all, still plenty of time for the ECM to gradually shift into line.
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7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
t240 from ECM 00z.
t216 12z. That HP over France and South UK will be ‘sucked’ back West.
T240 12z….it’s moving West
BFTP
Yes, and similar pattern to that of the chart below !
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Yes the GEM is picking up on the same signal. A cold spell beginning just before Christmas is certainly on the Christmas cards ! The exact evolution still to be determined , but with some very wintery solutions likely to come to the fore in the next few days I think !
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Looks like the less cold spell from Wednesday is going to be quite short lived if todays trend continues.
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Increasingly convinced we will see some deep cold arriving on our shores before Christmas. The models keep hinting and then dropping the block holding out, but only a matter of time before their default disappears and they start to show some excitingly cold charts which more closely support the back ground signals !
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Well the GFS really seems to have lead the way on this upcoming colder spell. What I like is the pattern that seems to be setting up as we go into December from which we could quite possibly see a notable cold spell eventually.
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The GFS as shown this morning is very good for multiple frontal snow events over parts of the UK in the coming days. Currently not so good for the south, but this could still change. One thing that now seems very likely is that in this battlegound situation/ as it currently stands, some parts are going to get lots of snow ! Most favoured at present, I think northern England and Northern and Central parts of Wales, the North Midlands, Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man. Also at times snow showers will effect North Eastern parts of the UK, and later many Northern parts and then perhaps more generally, as the cold begins to push further south again ! Will it be Snowmageddon ? Well currently it looks like for some of us it will be !!!
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First real signs now beginning to show on the models of a cold spell for the beginning of February, maybe sooner. Likely to be the coldest spell of the winter to !
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Increasing wintry potential from the weekend, and certainly at time next week. Also with such cold uppers closing in on us by the end of next week an increasing possibility now of severe cold reaching our shores from the east. Looks like the main course for this winter is being plated up in the kitchen.
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Maybe it will be a backloaded winter, which had a small taster in December !!!! Its only early days.
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The GFS seems determined to bring us into cold weather sooner than many think will happen. The synoptics are becoming increasingly interesting.
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We haven't had many cold Januarys recently, but the potential for this year to be different is now becoming easier to see, and its the trend that is now clearly our friend !
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January may well be a cold one, with the exception of the first few days, indeed the second half of the month may well be very cold ! There is as much chance of that as some of the predictions on here !
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Looks like the miserable models have just been visited by three ghosts ! The outlook is looking more positive, and maybe a cold northerly before the New Year too !
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1 minute ago, Chesil View said:
So we find ourselves this morning in that rather depressing place for coldies of knowing that our current cold spell (and snow chances for the southern half of the uk) will be swept away tomorrow. Without any of the modelling really showing a clear and precise path back to winter.
There is uncertainty in the medium range but any return anything more than transitory to cold is based around a lot of ifs and buts. ..... if the mjo can repeat its 5678 progression and if its high enough amplitude........if the Arctic high can move in our favour.........if the lows don't phase.
At the moment rather than relying on the ifs and buts. I,m taking heart from the fact that in my 60 odd years I think I can recall only one winter where a substantive cold spell in December wasnt followed by at least one more in the January or February.
Yes, or indeed followed by another cold spell later in the same month !
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Been looking at the latest model output and find that there is a bit of a disconnect between some of the comments this evening and what the models are currently showing ! There is still plenty of serious potential for the Christmas period, it may have trended away from the holly grail, but potential there is, STILL ! Northern parts especially have a higher than normal chance of a white christmas, and with the timescales involved that could easily shift further south !
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Looks increasingly likely that the cold will not be budged from northern parts this weekend. A complicated set up this weekend with only small adjustments needed for the cold to be just continuous. Will be interesting to see the ECM 12z shortly. Hopefully will start to follow the trend of the UKMO and others. Think it might, and also with the potential for a severely cold outbreak from the east before the new year also growing !
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The GEM seems to be far more consistant than either the GFS or the ECM recently, which both seem to be repeatedly flipped between different scenarios. Logically if it is more settled on a particular outcome then that is the most likely outcome, especially when other models cant make up their mind. Prolonged cold it is then !!!
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Things starting to look interesting across nearly all the models for a return to significant cold early in February. The signal being picked up today looks significant and I think some very wintery synoptics will be appearing imminently.