JBMWeatherForever

Things starting to look interesting across nearly all the models for a return to significant cold early in February. The signal being picked up today looks significant and I think some very wintery synoptics will be appearing imminently.

Looks like north western parts will see quite a bit of snow during next week in the forecast synoptic set up. Northern Ireland the Isle of Man, North Wales, Lancashire, Cheshire, Staffordshire, quite favoured areas to get a build up of snow by the end of next week. Indeed significant snow chances for almost anywhere once the prolonged Cold Spell commences !

Latest ECM looks good to me to, retrogression taking place, and then a repeat procession of northerly or north easterly outbreaks. Only very slight difference on this ECM run is the High seems to be intensifying a little which is good in terms of a prolonged cold spell. The initial High will give increasingly frosty nights and the exceptionally sodden ground will lead to Freezing fog over parts of mainland Britain, which in turn will keep temps very cold at the surface. Then when the blasts from the north and eventually north east develop the ground will be very cold.

Significant and probably severe cold spell looking more and more likely for the UK , and in the heart of winter too !

ECM has taken another step towards a cold Christmas ! Looks like the GFS is leading the way again !

After a blip the cold spell is back on, again ! The GFS is showing some quite potent cold air for Christmas, again. It might be leading us down the Garden Path with the GEM, but perhaps there is a good reason for that. It's so we can get the sledge out of the garden shed !?!

The GFS has consistantly for a number of days now, shown a cold north/northwesterly in the run up to Christmas. It's often the model that picks up on such trends before the others do, and the fact that it isn't dropping this evolution makes me feel much more optimistic of such an outcome than some on here seem to be. There is after all, still plenty of time for the ECM to gradually shift into line.

Yes, and similar pattern to that of the chart below !

Yes the GEM is picking up on the same signal. A cold spell beginning just before Christmas is certainly on the Christmas cards ! The exact evolution still to be determined , but with some very wintery solutions likely to come to the fore in the next few days I think !

Looks like the less cold spell from Wednesday is going to be quite short lived if todays trend continues.

Increasingly convinced we will see some deep cold arriving on our shores before Christmas. The models keep hinting and then dropping the block holding out, but only a matter of time before their default disappears and they start to show some excitingly cold charts which more closely support the back ground signals !

Yes, it currently seems to be the ECM that is evolving, and not GFS, so quite possible that the current ECM evolution could well be wrong, and end up looking like that currently shown by the GFS, on this occasion. It has certainly happened before.

Well the GFS really seems to have lead the way on this upcoming colder spell. What I like is the pattern that seems to be setting up as we go into December from which we could quite possibly see a notable cold spell eventually.

The GFS as shown this morning is very good for multiple frontal snow events over parts of the UK in the coming days. Currently not so good for the south, but this could still change. One thing that now seems very likely is that in this battlegound situation/ as it currently stands, some parts are going to get lots of snow ! Most favoured at present, I think northern England and Northern and Central parts of Wales, the North Midlands, Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man. Also at times snow showers will effect North Eastern parts of the UK, and later many Northern parts and then perhaps more generally, as the cold begins to push further south again ! Will it be Snowmageddon ? Well currently it looks like for some of us it will be !!!

First real signs now beginning to show on the models of a cold spell for the beginning of February, maybe sooner. Likely to be the coldest spell of the winter to !