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JBMWeatherForever

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Isle of Man
  • Interests
    Weather, Rugby, Sport, Movies, Walking
  • Weather Preferences
    Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything

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  1. As Paul Gambochini would say it's now back to the 80's, and with some classics about to be played. Thames Streamers, Battleground Snow, and eventually significant blizzards ! Both Frankie and the man from Del Monte says yes !!!
  2. The models are starting to smell the coffee, and a good cuppa it's going to be. The next few weeks looks like being exceptional for weather watching, especially if you like very cold and snowy weather.
  3. ECM is closer to how this will pan out come the end of the week. And not because it's a better outcome but because historically it has always been better at reading a breakdown "if it happens" ?
  4. Once the cold becomes inbeded then any breakdown will gradually be pushed back. This is going to be a longer cold spell than some seem to think !
  5. Usually when watching for a noteworthy cold spell I watch the GEM with some nervousness as it is often more realistic and smells the coffee when the other models show Narnia. So the fact that GEM is showing the best solutions at the moment gives me more confidence than I would normally have that a significant cold spell is on its way.
  6. Unless i'm very much mistaken today is the 3rd of January. We will see what the first half of January was like after the first half of January !!!
  7. As ever it only takes very small changes in the near term synoptics for a major change further out. But that is particularly apparant at the moment. If the trend continues for blocking in the artic to strengthen, then we will soon be seeing a significant number of cold synoptic runs from the models, foretelling the commencement of a significant cold spell from the north east. The model output is looking very interesting and a cold and wintry christmas period is now more than a distinct possibility.
  8. Seemed strange yesterday when only the GFS was going for a more prolonged colder outlook. If any model was suggesting the return of the Atlantic I would have thought GFS would be it , not the ECM (UK Met is usually somewhere in between in such battleground situations). Today it seems to have come back to what I would have expected, but the fact that the GFS has already shown us a colder outlook makes me think all three models will be doing so shortly.
  9. Models continually showing interesting potential for cold during early December either from the north or the east. And even if we don't get a direct hit from the north, with the jet heading well south an increasing likelyhood of gradually developing our own cold pool with time.
  10. Certainly at this range there is still a good chance of some very cold weather before January is out with plenty of time for upgrades as far as a northerly is concerned. Also with the Polar vortex heading for Scandinavia we could yet end up with prolonged very cold weather too.
  11. Yes, hopefully today is the start of a more positive outlook with a possible major pattern change later in the month, but also if the current trend for the jet to move further south continues, then even more doors will be opened to cold and sooner than some seem to think.
  12. Increasingly interesting from a cold perspective as we move into November, certainly looks below normal at the very least. November snowfalls a distinct possibility this year.
  13. Strengthening signs of an early onset of winter by late October.
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