Redbull165

I can show you also for other models. In the last few weeks ECMWF was the most accurate model, followed by UKMO, GFS. But in the last days GFS is surprisingly the best one. The point is, that every model has its flaws.

In terms of accuracy usually the GFS00Z, 12Z runs are better than 6z,18z.

Perfect GFS12Z run.

And its happening. For the first time this year when El nino developed, we are seeing Enso area 3.4 warmer with anomalies than 1+2. Modoki El nino slowly taking its place. Difference in last 7 days. The western part over the Pacific is seeing a lot of warming last few days, the eastern part quite the opposite around the coast of Ecuador.

Hopefully modoki el nino slowly developing. We saw a lot of cooling in the last few days over 1+2 area. Interesting read about MJO index.

GloSea5 is still showing transition into central based (modoki) el nino, towards the second part of the winter. December 2023. January 2024. February 2024. March 2024.

My mistake, I already deleted the post, right after you posted.

The ENSO area around 1+2 is cooling consistently in the last few weeks. The warming is going more towards 3.4 area. Also SOI (Southern Oscillation) index in the last few days is actually on the positive side. I see quite a big chance for central based (hybrid) el nino developing, towards the second part of the winter. But just my opinion of course. Glosea SST prediction. I am still waiting for a new update now in november. Different types of El nino events.

Indeed. The number of sunspots have gradually decreased in the last 15 days.

Interesting.

Oh look what have we here...

Mostly Scandinavia will see a massive extension of snow cover in the next 10 days. A good sign I would say.

Great post, yeah that area could be really crucial for the beginning of winter. Here is a CFS model showing further cooling of the ocean in the next weeks.

Quite interesting.

Yeah lets wait at least for november when the new ECMWF update comes out. It could be again quite different then this one which was posted today. I would say everything is possible. After all this heat/warm over Europe in last weeks/months, when the change will come it will be probably even more extreme. This anticyclone wont last forever. Fingers crossed.

Here is a composite of different winters with El nino conditions . We have three types. Winter SST expected over D,J,F 2023/2024 by CANSIPS model. As I am seeing the anomalies are looking the closest to the east-central based el nino. With hopefully modoki coming towards the end of the winter. All to play for. And I have some more interesting things to add to my post. This was posted on World Climate Service some months ago. "Added the newly-released 1940-1949 data to our ERA5 viewer. The notoriously cold European winter of 1941-1942 (coldest of the 20th century) occurred in tandem with an extreme +PDO phase, following a super-El Niño the prior winter. Extreme climate anomalies!" Greetings from Slovenia.

I am thinking ENSO might be the most important factor for this winter. The CFS model has shown that we already reached the peak of the El nino. This was the picture I posted on other forum in the beginning of May 2023. It is showing anomaly in terms of precipitation when el nino was present. Here in Slovenia and around the Alps we had the wettest summer in years. So I couldnt believe that reanalysis was quite right for our part of Europe. And in July this was posted for the entire fall. Again its showing the years with a El nino present in the atmosfere. So a dominant subtropical anticyclone over Europe. Analysis for winter 23-24 with anomalies when El nino+QBO east was present. I think there is a major difference between if we have east-based, central-based or modoki El nino. This could well define our winter in Europe. Many thanks to severe weather Europe for this amazing reanalysis. QBO- (east) winters (500hPa). As we are seeing we are currently in QBO- phase, and will stay in it for the remaining of fall and deep into winter. It will be absolutely fascinating to watch what will happen in next few months. Fingers crossed for at least some snow and cold in our vacinity. Cheers.

Here in Slovenia on the SE part of the Alps we had an incredible bad snow season for now. On my elevation 300 m, and near the 1500 m high hills we had from december to now 15 cm together. Our average yearly snow accumulation is 125 cm! And barely 5 of snow days for now, it looks like the worst winter at least in 19 years. The hills from 400-1000 m got no snow now, from 1000-1500 m there is couple of cm. But such a winter near the Alps is a disgrace really. We saw a single Genoa low-pressure system this season. But its different on the northern parts of the Alps, which are seeing some snow in nearly every week with the NW orographic (winds) effect from Atlantic.

Sadly its game over.

GFS showing a gradual weakening of zonal winds at the top of the stratosfere after 10.1. The problem is its just GFS, I prefer the ECMWF model every day of the week.

First signs of a potential SSW event kicking in? GFS.

Finally the QBO is negative at around 30 hPa mark. Maybe all is not yet lost. It looks bad now, but it could well be the case, that the models arent taking the other factors into focus in prediction. Usually a strong Azores high means a "stronger" vertical wave activity. We will see if that will be the case, if not hope it will enough to move the vortex towards Sibiria in january. At the top of the stratosfere we can see the strong warming from all the sides, but that warming isnt yet strong enough in the lower parts, for examble down at 10 hPa. But slowly we can see that propagation down.

Its only for comparing reasons. But here is a zonal-wind chart from the top of the stratosfere to the troposfere from SSW winters 2017-18 and 2012/13. You see in both cases QBO- was the dominant thing. 15.2.2018. 8.1.2013, right after a technical SSW event, you see the propagation of very-weak zonal winds into the troposfere. And right now we are about here, QBO-east winter, now we need more of the wave activity, which will put the pressure on the polar vortex. We can currently see some similarity to winter of 2011-12. But we know what happened next and how we got an extremely cold end of january and february in the most of Europe in the end.

Also for the first time this winter season we are seeing a moderate wave 2 activity from the Azores high. Also the help with QBO- at the top of the stratosfere might be slowly, but surely kicking in. We know. Wave 1 = Aleutian pressure system (Aleutian Islands in north Pacific). Wave 2 = Azores pressure system Wave 3 = Russian-Asian pressure system (in the cold part of the year in the central part of Russia) I think we have interesting times ahead of us. Januar might suprise us in a good way, I have that feeling.

The dynamics in the next few week will be quite favourable for wave (warming) driven activity. As the Azores high will dominate the circulation over the Europe, and will push a lot of warm air towards the north, into Russia, Scandinavia. And it might start to penatrate the vortex again slowly, but surely starting from the top parts of the stratosfere at around 1 hPa. Soon we might see also the QBO (east) effect, which propagation might help with slowing the zonal-winds down. As it is usually the case. Interesting time we have ahead of us.