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Redbull165

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  1. Here in Slovenia on the SE part of the Alps we had an incredible bad snow season for now. On my elevation 300 m, and near the 1500 m high hills we had from december to now 15 cm together. Our average yearly snow accumulation is 125 cm! And barely 5 of snow days for now, it looks like the worst winter at least in 19 years. The hills from 400-1000 m got no snow now, from 1000-1500 m there is couple of cm. But such a winter near the Alps is a disgrace really. We saw a single Genoa low-pressure system this season. But its different on the northern parts of the Alps, which are seeing some snow
  2. GFS showing a gradual weakening of zonal winds at the top of the stratosfere after 10.1. The problem is its just GFS, I prefer the ECMWF model every day of the week.
  3. First signs of a potential SSW event kicking in? GFS.
  4. Finally the QBO is negative at around 30 hPa mark. Maybe all is not yet lost. It looks bad now, but it could well be the case, that the models arent taking the other factors into focus in prediction. Usually a strong Azores high means a "stronger" vertical wave activity. We will see if that will be the case, if not hope it will enough to move the vortex towards Sibiria in january. At the top of the stratosfere we can see the strong warming from all the sides, but that warming isnt yet strong enough in the lower parts, for examble down at 10 hPa. But slowly we can see that propagatio
  5. Its only for comparing reasons. But here is a zonal-wind chart from the top of the stratosfere to the troposfere from SSW winters 2017-18 and 2012/13. You see in both cases QBO- was the dominant thing. 15.2.2018. 8.1.2013, right after a technical SSW event, you see the propagation of very-weak zonal winds into the troposfere. And right now we are about here, QBO-east winter, now we need more of the wave activity, which will put the pressure on the polar vortex. We can currently see some similarity to winter of 2011-12. But we know what happened next and ho
  6. Also for the first time this winter season we are seeing a moderate wave 2 activity from the Azores high. Also the help with QBO- at the top of the stratosfere might be slowly, but surely kicking in. We know. Wave 1 = Aleutian pressure system (Aleutian Islands in north Pacific). Wave 2 = Azores pressure system Wave 3 = Russian-Asian pressure system (in the cold part of the year in the central part of Russia) I think we have interesting times ahead of us. Januar might suprise us in a good way, I have that feeling.
  7. The dynamics in the next few week will be quite favourable for wave (warming) driven activity. As the Azores high will dominate the circulation over the Europe, and will push a lot of warm air towards the north, into Russia, Scandinavia. And it might start to penatrate the vortex again slowly, but surely starting from the top parts of the stratosfere at around 1 hPa. Soon we might see also the QBO (east) effect, which propagation might help with slowing the zonal-winds down. As it is usually the case. Interesting time we have ahead of us.
  8. This is an absolute disaster, look at the zonal winds at the top of the stratosfere from 60-90N. The strong zonal-winds are progressing quickly into the lower parts of the troposfere. Which means an increase chance of the Atlantic (zonal-flow) for Europe dominating. I think we are about to lose the whole december, only a strong warming of the stratosfere with an increased wave1, and then wave 2 activity could change that. Otherwise the polar vortex will again regained its strenght and return to his roots at around Greenland. All we can do is hope, but for now it looks worse as in the start of
  9. On ECMWF model we can see the downward propagation is still lagging in the area below the 100 hPa in the troposfere. This SSW event is really slow with its effect. But I hope it will be worth the wait.
  10. New update, for how are the things looking with SSW effect later in the january. Great read. http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/latest-model-guidance-for-the-mid-late-january-winter-weather-across-europe/?fbclid=IwAR1o3oYT7AQejN6HpRGC2lcdeodlHy074x7GKYM6kP15hI3OXFmWDvzBCBk
  11. Very impressive GFS06Z chart also for us on the SE side of the Alps with a Balkan/Genoa low pressure system in the middle of next week. On the N-NE side of the Alps they have heavy snowfall in last few days, and here on the other side we get nothing, its sunny with strong NW wind and zero snow.
  12. http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/update-on-the-splitting-polar-vortex-and-winter-trends-across-the-european-continent-through-mid-january/?fbclid=IwAR3WdioMzXDSJ8Rl3Bmur2gh9IY0UEBFKgEMokYNb4fEnfXmIYi5_-qlSFk Great read.
  13. Some weak-moderate wave 2 (Azores high-pressure) activity is also seen. It could push the robust AC ridge more towards the north and into the area around Iceland or Greenland. Its still a "waiting game". I hope of course for the best.
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