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Redbull165

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  1. On ECMWF model we can see the downward propagation is still lagging in the area below the 100 hPa in the troposfere. This SSW event is really slow with its effect. But I hope it will be worth the wait.
  2. New update, for how are the things looking with SSW effect later in the january. Great read. http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/latest-model-guidance-for-the-mid-late-january-winter-weather-across-europe/?fbclid=IwAR1o3oYT7AQejN6HpRGC2lcdeodlHy074x7GKYM6kP15hI3OXFmWDvzBCBk
  3. Very impressive GFS06Z chart also for us on the SE side of the Alps with a Balkan/Genoa low pressure system in the middle of next week. On the N-NE side of the Alps they have heavy snowfall in last few days, and here on the other side we get nothing, its sunny with strong NW wind and zero snow.
  4. http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/update-on-the-splitting-polar-vortex-and-winter-trends-across-the-european-continent-through-mid-january/?fbclid=IwAR3WdioMzXDSJ8Rl3Bmur2gh9IY0UEBFKgEMokYNb4fEnfXmIYi5_-qlSFk Great read.
  5. Some weak-moderate wave 2 (Azores high-pressure) activity is also seen. It could push the robust AC ridge more towards the north and into the area around Iceland or Greenland. Its still a "waiting game". I hope of course for the best.
  6. What I find great to watch are the zonal wind anomalies at the equator. We know that the QBO (-) and (QBO (+) cycle usually last for about 12 months. And we now have a strange looking situation, if we look at the top of the stratosfere (1hPa-10hPa) we already see the QBO (east) filtering slowly down. The real QBO (+) is currently based from the 10hPa-50hPa stratosfere area. But if everything was normal there should be the strong QBO (+) now reaching the troposfere. But in my opinion something is "lagging" the westerly (QBO) response, which is usually a very good thing for us, if we want a colder than average winter. If we look at the zonal wind index for november at 50 hPa, there was still a QBO (east) present.
  7. Statistically in terms of accuracy I would always prefer the morning ECMWF 00z run with ensembles over 12z. But thats just me.
  8. If we look at the conditions this winter. We have a transitional QBO (east) around equator to (QBO) west index. The first time the QBO was positive on 30 hPa was this november if we look at the numbers. But that doesnt tell us the whole story. There is usually a 1-2 month lag between this two phases. So tehnically below the 30 hPa towards troposfere area we still have a negative or east QBO index. We are in neutral to weak el nino ENSO state if we look at the 3.4 area around Pacific. The el nino is central based (modoki). Which is for Europe much better than the east based one, if we look at the average anomalies at 500 hPa, comparing the years back. Comparing winters with traditional (east-based) el nino with hybrid and to the one we have this year (central based modoki). Solar activity is very low, we are about just one year away from a solar minimum. Low solar activity usually means a weaker polar vortex in general, which might be happening this year. But we have to combine other factors as well. It is usually true, that the combination of QBO(east) and low-sunspot activity promotes the chance for a colder than average winter in Europe, which is also true for the QBO(west) and high-sunspot activity. I was analysing this things back a couple of years back on the other forum. So in my opinon the current ENSO conditions are very good for us, we dont have a moderate-strong el nino or la nina events, which are in most of the winters the worst for cold winter in Europe if we look in general. I find neutral to weak el nino ENSO conditions to be the best for this winter. But its just my opinion. And with the SSW event happening right now, I think anything is possible. We have to hope for a MJO index (phase 7,8) and some help with the propagation of weaker zonal winds into the troposfere. The morning ECMWF (00Z) run was very impressive for the most of the Europe, and the GFS 06Z (P) followed him. The GFS (P) is actually a new FV3 weather model. Whats happening with the NAM, is it already predicted to go into the negative state in the lower parts of troposfere?
  9. If we look at the GFS (ensemble) scenarios it doesnt look that bad. 12/20 of them on GFS06Z are seeing the rise of height with the Azores high pressure system that pushes towards the north in the area around Greenland. With this SSW event already in progress we really dont know what will happen, the PNA index looks to stay positive, thats good news. AO index is currently slightly positive, but will probably go to neutral to negative state in the next few days. NAO index is now negative, but is predicted to go to into positive state in 7-10 days time. But that isnt done and dusted yet. I think interesting days, weeks are ahead of us. This forum is quite amazing, I already learnt a lot of new things from you guys here. And I respect that. Cheers.
  10. Is that the first sign of downward propagation that I see on this GFS zonal wind chart. What I mean with downward propagation is when the effect of weaker zonal winds is seen below the 200 hPa area in the troposfere. And some of that might now be seen, starting around the second dekade of january 2019. What do you think, am I missing something here? It might be also the case that its just one run, and the new one will change that, but it doesnt look that bad at all. Situation now. And the zonal winds (with EP flux) on 13.1.
  11. There actually is, the webpage is called weatheriscool. You can find many interesting things there, in terms of stratosfere, troposfere that page is based on GFS weather model. You can also find some CFS zonal charts there on the graph. http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratosfaren-zonal-mean-u-wind-60n-vcs/
  12. There is quite a difference if we compare the yesteday ECMWF 12z (main) run to the one we have today at 96h. The high pressure is moved a little bit more to the NW near Iceland.
  13. Amazing morning ECMWF 00z run for parts of central,SE,and also NW Europe. The ensembles are pretty solid as well. But we need to push that ridge more towards Greenland, this is the most important thing.
  14. Thank you buddy for this information. We can only hope for the best. In the evening runs I find the UKMO model quite interesting at 144 h. Statistical comparision has shown us that if we compare the GFS, ECMWF, UKMO models together, that UKMO model was even the second on the list right behind the ECMWF model. The GFS came just third on the list. It also depends on the situation.
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