LRD

@Methuselah I do like a wind/rain storm (I know I'm in the minority on that) but we've seen enough of those the last 3 months or so. Like a N'ly between late March and late September is a waste of a cold pattern, warm/mild and dry synoptics in late autumn through winter to very early spring is a similar waste of a warm pattern!

Labouring a point but look at the GEM in FI. Incredible that computers are even modelling this. Uppers of over 10C in January. Approaching 15C IMBY. Crazy stuff Just got to wait and see if we'll experience one of those instances where stupid warmth flips into something much, much colder next month

@Gowon Not ruling anything out for the 2nd week of Feb onwards, of course, but it's looking very bleak for coldies at the moment. A winter that had so much potential could be melting into puddles of disappointment

@Uncertainty That's a superb illustration of how pressure anomaly charts can be very misleading. I do use them on EC46 to see if there is a direction of travel but I generally take little notice of them @AO- Agree - but we have to see a start somewhere I guess But for those chasing cold, I'd be taking a break from model-watching until this time next week. Can't see much happening before the week of 12th Feb. If anything happens at all. All the 'interest' (I use the word loosely) will be around just how warm it could get next week

If you're one of those people who don't like seeing wintry conditions in, er, winter, the GFS ensembles are good viewing. For the rest of us, however...

At least the PV leaves Greenland in the last frame of tonight's ECM

Good grief - this is potentially record-breaking stuff What could we expect from that. 17 to the east of high ground in Scotland? 13C-16C elsewhere? Remarkable. Utterly remarkable. For southerners, if only it was July New Year's Eve/NYD 2021/22-esque. I've seen some horrible charts (for winter cold) down the years and this lot are right up there.

Typo intended?

Yes, good points I am getting a feeling of 2019 at the moment. There was a projected cold spell in Jan of that year that looked like it had potential to become quite severe. That ended in a bit of a damp squib and the prospects of a SSW looked promising for Feb. We all know how that turned out. What was it... 19C/20C right near the end of Feb '19? Remarkable warmth However, a cold, wintry Feb certainly feels possible at this point in time, although EC46 has backed off that further tonight with high pressure over or very near us looking favoured. It will change, I expect Feb charts. Week of 5th: Week of 12th:

I said the VERY mild charts might not come off I realise it's going to turn warmer week of 22nd. I've been saying that warmer conditions looked on the cards since last week. I'm just putting it out there that the EXCEPTIONALLY mild stuff some models are showing might not come off. But, as I say, mild is mild! 9C and 14C - all the same to me!

A) the very mild charts might not come off B) does it even matter if ends up being mild or very mild. It's still mild! I never sensed any real prospect of a snowy transition but, you're right, some did. The evidence was never really, consistently there though

This is what EC46 was showing (pressure anomaly-wise) this time last week for week of 22 Jan. And it has been remarkably consistent since Not bad that far out. For a week, the evidence has been there that next week will be much warmer than this. No denying that this week will be another load of 'meh' in many central and southern areas and looks like another pretty boring cold spell. I sense that frustration on here and people are lashing out a bit

Tonight's EC46 pressure anomaly headlines from week 2 onwards: -Mild week of 22nd - high pressure to the south -Weeks 29th and 5th - high pressure anomalies over the UK. Probably too close to generate what people on here really want. This can still be represented as blocked (in red) on the ECM regime charts - it's not necessarily indicating a Scandi block -12th and 19th - pressure anomalies start to rise to our NW and North again Summary - not exactly spectacular (the signals wouldn't be for Feb this far out anyway) but not bad either

Just a few points on this 1) I agree with the general gist of your post. Looks like this is in danger of being another underwhelming spell after looking like it had potential to be pretty eventful (still might but I reckon those chances are diminishing now). I wouldn't say 'high probability of a major snowstorm' but it looked promising. Got to say model-watching/snow-chasing in winter is becoming a bit of a boring, fruitless hobby despite how interesting the countdown to this forthcoming cool/cold interlude has been. If this winter doesn't deliver something significant, I really would start to wonder and lose even more interest 2) The teleconnections have got it right. Detail, they won't predict. And, alas, it's the devil in the detail that looks like making this an uneventful cold spell for MOST of the UK. That still might change of course 3) The mild weather from next Saturday/Sunday was always on the cards. There have been nods to this in the models and within this thread but they were quite often shouted down as 'looking for the breakdown before the cold is even here' by some. It's a mild spell that might not last that long, though

I hear what you're saying but this is one of those scenarios where the longer term (from next weekend) broad picture is easier to predict than the shorter term detail Several models including the EC46 (which I think has done well in predicting this chilly/cold weather) have long advertised a return of the Atlantic week of the 22nd. Might not last though

Let's face it. the boy 'Arctic' has been a pretty disappointing signing and has delivered little the past 6 years so he probably owes the team a few goals this season (and next and the next)

To control the narrative from as early as possible They know so-called journalists from nasty, horrible rags like the Express and Mail will hype it up and say the Met Office said this, that and the other when they didn't. These vids give them a bit of a head start (and proof) on all that guff Onto the models, cold is nailed as I said as early as last week (shameless self-congratulation there, I know. But, hey, why not?). It likely won't last beyond 22nd/23rd but I suspect it will be back towards the start of Feb. Who gets frontal, disruptive snow next week (IF anyone does) won't start to become clear until Sunday at the earliest. So, in terms of the micro detail, it's not really worth getting too high or too low until Sunday evening. Even if it misses everyone there could still be surprises Happy hunting for those who want snow

Doesn't effect us on this run but, again, GFS is wanting to raise pressure over Scandinavia in FI

The GFS was back in the cold game with last night's 18z. It's just upgrading now. Still looks like it made the right call cutting of the initial N'ly Will a signal for Scandi Heights emerge once again later in this run?

Well, as Warren rightly says - it ain't happened yet. But it's difficult to argue that the other models have not moved, significantly, towards it overnight. Could be more interesting cos of it. I am still hugely confident of cold happening, which I've been for the last 2 weeks. Could be disruptive too although less confidence on that

All evidence pointing to it being right though, Warren. All other models have followed it. Yes, it could flip back. But it probably won't Splitting hairs of course - cold via a N'ly or cold via wedges and a S'ly tracking jet. Result = cold. Could be disruptive with the latter option

Got to be said that, synoptically, this is a big win for the GFS op. Even going against its ensembles it sniffed something that might disrupt a clean northerly flow beyond a day or so and it was basically right. However, what it got wrong was that it would turn mild because it still doesn't look like doing that except maybe in places like Tropical Teignmouth and the rest of the SW That's not to say it will be mild. Just looks like a different type of cold (messier and possibly more dramatic because of that) than what was being shown for a few days last week/weekend when a clean N'ly looked likely to last all next week I've said it before and I'll say it again - a really interesting watch this. I'm not pinning hopes on any particular outcome - although it'd be nice to see a couple of weeks of proper winter in January - and it's all the more enjoyable because of that. Still think it's going to be a cold, disruptive 2nd half of next week. Which areas will experience the most disruption is the question

Ha ha! Yes to be fair Scott and a couple of others did call the potential for a scandi ridge last week. I think you might have mentioned something too. It's only one run of course and longer term models like EC46 haven't picked up on that yet. Probably a phantom in the GFS machine again but let's see if it's somehow latched on to something

Yep, what a win for GFS this would be. I don't think it will be but...

You went to bed too early