LRD

blizzard81 Nowt to worry about at this stage, though. Detail will change. EC46 has been rock solid on this for a while now. If, IF, we get cold from around the 12th/13th/14th it'll be a big win for the model Temp anomalies are lower than average from week of 12th to the end of the month

EC46 would be perfect Cold from about the 12th Feb until early next month and then getting milder by the 2nd week in March Of course it won't pan out like that

Don't want to dampen the enthusiasm for UKMO's chart (and to a lesser extent GFS) but MOGREPS is not convincing: Carlisle Brum London (cold, what cold?)

MJB Unfortunately the control is an 850s outlier for a couple of days around that time (bar one other member - so, for the pedants, not a technical outlier I guess!). Good run though The lack of members getting near to -10 850s-wise is not a great sign. There's a few cold runs in the ensembles but there's also hardly any very cold ones

Cambrian Those big red blocking bars on that ECM regime graph doesn't necessarily mean high latitude blocking of course. It could mean mid-latitude blocking too. I know you know that but for any new people in here it's worth highlighting Meanwhile, GFS 6z ensembles look far colder than the op - in FI

Lukesluckybunch Yep, it's just the same old boring story for UK winters. Day 9 and 10 are the snowiest places on Earth! I do happen to think things will get colder in mid-Feb but snowy nirvana, I suspect, is pretty unlikely. Met Office and EC46 are promising. But promise is nothing until it's delivered on A poor NH view on the 6z GFS. So even day 9 doesn't look great on this run

Big picture may look good but ICON still leaves us bathed in warm SW'lies Very mild end to Jan leading to a very mild start of Feb. Tedious stuff

Or whether we travel in a Porsche, Ford Fiesta or horse-drawn carriage

Cue another bunch of posts having a pop at EC46! Remember EC46 shows pressure anomalies. Not where high and low pressure will sit. Weak anomalies to our NW could just mean lower pressure than normal - but it'll still be some kind of low pressure. However, I might be imagining this but EC46 signals are usually not so ambiguous. And the clear signal in last night's run was for temp anomalies to be colder than average too from about the 12th - much more worth taking notice of If it's wrong, the natives will have their pitchforks out demanding the model be struck from existence! Simpsons, comet, observatory...

No it doesn't. You're putting words in people's mouths. I gave you a response to the point of your first question and now you're making another one so, no, I'm not missing your original point at all The models will do what they do - it's not the fault of some silicon chips and electronic circuits that people misinterpret them or put their emotions and hopes in what they show. Nor is it a machine's fault that people misread what other people are saying about them

@johncam To push science and understanding? That's what's always happened throughout human history. Push the science. Test things, see if they work. If they don't, learn why and how can it be made to work. What can we learn from mistakes and how can we improve things - medicine, computing, technology, engineering. travel, space exploration. You name it, we've improved scientific (and other) understanding and improved how we make/design things by learning from failures Humans haven't advanced by not trying to improve science and understanding What's your solution - forget the weather modelling and don't try to improve it? While I acknowledge that chasing cold/snow in winter is increasingly tedious, that doesn't mean that computing, meteorology and climatology should give up improving just cos things are less than perfect

Not an outlier but GFS 6z remains right at the bottom of the pack all the way from the 10th/11th

Underwhelming GFS ensembles. 6z not especially representative 850s-wise in FI

@Atmogenic Wow, they say sarcasm is the lowest form of wit and you've proved it mate

@Jason M Yep, agreed. I think we will get cold winters in the future but instead of say, 1 in 3 cold ones, and what it sort of used to be, it's going to be 1 in 10. If warming isn't arrested by the end of this century we won't have winters at all. But that'd be the least of humanity's worries by then! Mid-March to mid-Sept: yes, I'm always looking for warmth!

Is there a more fruitless and boring hobby than chasing cold/snow in a UK winter? Was interested early in the season. But I've been fining it an increasingly dull, pointless past time over the last few years Despite last summer's disappointment at least late spring/summer is generally more reliable these days. Well, IMBY anyway. Just wish we had more thunderstorms

@johncam Just not true. The EC46 signposted the mild spell (after the largely pathetic cold we had the other week) we're in very well. Admittedly it saw a relatively quick return to cold which has gone wrong But it's a model that goes 6 weeks in advance! Of course it's going to be wrong a lot of the time! I find it quite reliable for 2-3 weeks in advance. Even had is successes at 4 weeks. But anyone pouring their emotions and hopes into what the EC46 shows... well, more fool them MOGREPS has flipped.........drum roll....... mild. What a shock!

Unfortunately Dennis that 2nd chart still maintains an Iberian height anomaly. With pressure usually pretty high down there, that looks a strong high pressure cell The Scandi High anomaly is interesting but, as it's an anomaly chart, it could just mean higher heights than normal but pressure still being relatively low and not enough there to reduce the Iberian High's influence Still better seeing 'something' up in Scandi than not, I guess

Felt like mid/late March out there when I was walking the dog just now. Remarkable really. These very mild spells/days are just getting more and more common in a UK winter now Another burst of 'heat' towards the end of this week for a day or two and then MOGREPS shows an 850s down turn with a lot of scatter. 2 or 3 members retain incredible warmth. Will it be a significant drop or is it just going to go from very mild to bog-standard mild? I know what I'd be backing if I was to bet on the outcome

Now I AM interested! Ahem, MOGREPS still showing remarkable warmth late next week/weekend. Possibility of a quick down turn after that

Indeed - I'm fascinated by how warm it could get next week. I don't want to see it but it's interesting nonetheless

GFS doesn't have 850 temps as high as MOGREPS and this morning's UKMO run. But still time for, er, 'upgrades' if you can call it that Hope we do get some kind of cold spell next month as, unscientific observation though this is, I always feel we pay for Feb warmth with crap March's and April's. A cold March I can just about live with but after the clocks go forward, it's warm, warm, warm all the way please (well, until late Sept)

Or, in other words, between a rock and a hard place This is a ridiculously warm chart from UKMO Less than a week away

MOGREPS ensembles show some astonishing warmth for the start of Feb May as well chase spring as chasing winter is a complete and utter waste of time! And 15Cs and 16Cs are surely possible this time next week. Incredible. I want cold and snow this time of year but, even so, it's going to be interesting to see what temps we will experience. It does look quite windy so that will take the edge off but if the sun breaks out anywhere in the east temps could rocket. Night time temps are going to be potentially record-breaking Feb really is turning into a spring month (although I still suspect there will be some cold in the 2nd half of Feb) but I still didn't think the above was possible, so early in Feb, despite what's happening climate-wise All those positive signs and this winter still looks like being another huge fail. It's been October or March-like conditions for most of the first 2 months