LRD

Wasn't having a dig or anything. Thanks to Feb1991 who provided the temp anoms I just feel quite strongly how misleading pressure anoms are. Bang on about it all the time. As you and others will know, a high anomaly in the Iceland/Greenland/Northern Scandi region just usually means that there might well be higher pressure in those regions than normal - but it's still low pressure that's there. Just not as intensely low pressure relative to normal. Even in ensemble means I don't think they are very helpful. People who are new and/or learning can misinterpret them - I used to. For the sake of inexperienced model watchers, I've learned that you need to be seeing deep red or even black over Greenland, for example. And very dark blue over Europe. If the colours are pale, they're just not worth taking much notice of

Apologies if this is a daft question and the answer is blindingly obvious but are there surface and/or 850 temp anomaly charts to accompany these - what I feel are - misleading pressure charts? I know EC46 has something along those lines but I don't think I have ever seen one for the everyday model output. Granted I've not looked very hard

Spectating rather than playing (my playing days are long gone!) but, yep. I normally want cold and snow up to about mid-March and if it happens I will enjoy it but I'd prefer it not to. And looking at the ECM ensembles the first 3rd of Feb looks 'safe' from cold and snow

According to this morning's suite, absolutely NOTHING is happening

If only it was July Dunno if there would be frost under that this time of year but what an awful set of Sunday morning runs for those wanting cold and snow. The GFS is a bit out of kilter with the 850s mean but it essentially gives us no weather for 2 weeks. If these projections are correct, then February will continue its march (pardon the pun) towards becoming a spring-like month. Good for me this year - lots of football to go to next month and don't really want the weather getting in the way

Those 2 longer range clusters look very mild. Possibly extremely mild depending on how wet and stormy (or not) it turns out to be. A high anomaly in places where pressure is usually relatively high is a strong old signal

Yep. I said similar on the old thread just before it closed. Anomaly charts often look spectacular (even the longer range ensemble mean charts) but they are very misleading especially for people new to viewing weather models The ECM extended ensemble clusters often have dark red anomalies over Greenland and Scandi but very often do not verify or they do verify but do not result in anything near as dramatic as the charts might suggest The main 3 models are looking very boring with nothing conditions in the reliable. Nothing cold and, in fact, hints of very mild conditions in the distant future

Yep. Just bring a waterproof for the cold (or warm) drizzle

Apologies

Only a couple of weeks away. What could possibly go wrong?

Poor ECM 850s if you want cold although some might involve cold surface conditions despite the 850s Fortunately for me, I don't want cold now as I wanna get to some football matches next month and don't need the weather getting in the way

This the actual chart from the same time Just goes to show how misleading anomaly charts are

This is going WILDLY off topic but in 2013 I saw about 10-12 days of cold and snow IMBY. In 2021 I can't remember anything of note

Seasonal these days would be about 8C and rain. No thanks. Either significant cold and snow or spring-like warmth please. The in-between is too grim for words

Well, 10 years I'd say. 2013 was a cold one. But that is exactly my point. Jan has been such a pathetic 'winter' month this last decade that 5C and a bit of frost is now considered cold

Ah, why not Don? If we can't get decent cold then let's get ridiculous warmth

Totally agree. But the bar has been set so low that 4 or 5C above freezing and a bit of frost overnight is now considered good January cold for some of us

Boooo, more (eternal) autumn But I'm sure the MoJO and the brewers droop circulation and all other sort of stuff will give us a freezing March which hardly any one wants. Can not wait

Lovely. If we can't have winter, then let's have spring. More autumn would just be utterly boring

In other words... mild for the rest of winter without a favourable SSW Roll on a warm spring and summer

Yep, I remember claims last year that April was going to be even colder than the grim April 2021. Thankfully those predictions were very, very wrong and it was all quite pleasant

Yep. Short ensembles suggest the op is very close to being an outlier. A cold run relative to the mean

Lots of snowy fun on those 192-240 options... for the Balkans and Greece!

If it's lager, make sure it's COLD

Isn't that his point, though? That the air we tapped into from N'ly airstreams used to be much, much colder?