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Everything posted by LRD

  1. ECM 192 I was wrong... the High Pressure holds on Cool nights and bright days away from the far north and north west where there'll be more cloud and precipitation
  2. 850s on the GEFS for London on 12z basically indicate the next couple of days of cold, then less cold for a couple more days, then slightly colder again for 2 or 3 days, then inconclusive. An unconvincing attempt at a warm up later on but it's obviously at long range so not worth too much thought yet. But, I'll take a punt and say that this April is looking like it's going to be a cool and dry one GEFS Image won't paste in for some reason. Sorry
  3. ECM 168 High pressure doesn't look that convincing here. Could easily be pulled west to allow rubbish in. The High looks even less convincing on Wetterzentrale
  4. So? This is the moans thread. That's what this is for. Plenty of people are in here when another phantom cold spell fails in winter but that's more acceptable, of course. That's 'good' moaning! I think you've missed my point, too. If this upcoming 2 or 3 day wonder was genuinely going to produce some unusual conditions (not even snow necessarily but some dramatic cloudscapes and thunder and unusually heavy showery precipitation for example) I'd have, well, not egged it on as such, but I would have been interested in how it panned out, even if I didn't want it. I think I've said that on at least 3 or 4 occasions in this and the model thread. Just think individuals should be free to moan about current or forecast weather in a thread designed to do just that. One member was swarmed over the other day when he dared moan about the incoming cold (which looked like it was going to be much more dramatic then, than it's looking now). I think people took offence that he called those wanting extreme cold now as a bit weird, which he shouldn't have done but I like to think he didn't mean it in quite the way it came across. Lots of nuance gets lost in the written word I certainly do not moan about heat in the summer. I just wish we had more electrical storms to accompany the heat Also people can't have it both ways. 16c in winter is extreme, I'd say, but would people on this forum, including me, embrace that? Of course not (although some did enjoy and follow the novelty of the very warm spell at the end of Feb 2019 to be fair. But, ordinarily, that would not happen). But then we can come on to this thread to have a good old moan and talk about how we're all hating it being 16c on New Year's Day or whenever
  5. So, first, I've had to defend myself against inaccurate claims that I've had a pop at folk for liking cold at this time of the year and now I'm getting you claiming that I don't know what conditions a certain weather pattern will MOST LIKELY result in, in a place where I've lived most of my life I know where I live and I do know what I've experienced in previous cold April spells. I tend to find previous, lived experiences to be as much - if not more - of a guide than what a computer is showing!! I know what is MOST LIKELY to happen. Yeah I know I said NEVER in my previous post but that was being dramatic, which is the norm for on here when cold is shown in the outputs. No need to be so literal. I don't know how much more OBJECTIVE I can get than remembering past experiences. Having said that I dunno when the last time -10 uppers hit this part of the world in April (they will hang around here for about 36-48 hours if current forecasts are correct) and I can't be bothered to check so, ok, maybe you're right and maybe this spell might have produced 5 or 10 minutes of snow on 2 or 3 occasions through showery activity, here, if the instability hadn't eventually been killed off across the model suite... but I can tell you that snow or snow showers in April in this part of the world is a very, very rare thing indeed even in a N'ly or NE'ly airstream and that the type of weather that is produced here, most often, in a cold April spell just leaves me cold (in more ways than one). Even hailstorms and thunderstorms in a cool April spell are rare here now. If that was the MOST LIKELY scenario for here, I'd have been cheering it on. But it wasn't based both on modelling and history. So, with that in mind, it'd be madness for anyone to expect a different result to what they usually experience in a certain situation. That's all I'm doing here As for the arbitrary point - it stands to reason that beyond mid-March then the chances of snow are getting less and less because the sun's getting stronger. And because the sun's getting stronger so the chances of something properly wintry is very unlikely here and the probable outcome is a bit of an unpleasant mess. Again, based on personal, local experience. Also, on this point, I think you'll also see me comment in the model thread that even I was getting intrigued about what might be produced even if I didn't fancy the cold. It was starting to look interesting and I was sort of looking forward to what we'd have seen but then it moderated (precipitation and instability, that is, rather than the cold). The squall line coming down from the north doesn't even look like producing anything now and that's what I was especially intrigued by. So I was trying to be pretty open-minded, which a lot of cold-weather zealots on here aren't The bit of your quote I've bolded - yes, agree and that was an important part of my overall point. I'm struggling to understand why what I'm saying is so controversial and getting people all angry
  6. Where have I moaned about other people's preferences? I might have mentioned something once but, honestly, I don't give a flying one about other people's preferences. I sometimes can't quite get my head around them but I never criticise anyone for wanting what they want even if it might not be my cup of tea. I only worry about my preferences. The only argument I've been making this past week is that I would not have, personally, enjoyed the conditions that the more dramatic of model runs were showing because, where I live, we were NEVER going to get the wintry conditions some were predicting - it would have been a right mess of cold rain and hail maybe with a touch of sleet. Or even worse, just slate grey skies and nothing else. Now things have moved away from those more dramatic runs. For many in inland areas - and south of a line from the Wash to, say, Manchester - and for those on the south coast it'll be a case of folk wondering what all the fuss was about. A bit of frost and a chilly breeze. Scotland will still probably do ok (if snow in April's your thing) and some coastal areas in both east and west This incoming cold 'spell' being watered down would have disappointed me if it was Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb or even early March so I get that folk will be disappointed that it's not looking as dramatic as it did at one stage. I'd never gloat about the disappointment of others 'cos I get it and gloating would be a rather ****ty thing to do. The only friendly advice I'd give (and I really don't mean to be patronising when I say this because that is absolutely NOT my intention) is something I've learned to do since being into this hobby is to try to keep a lid on expectations no matter how difficult that is sometimes - as most of us can and do get swept along with the hype. It's natural
  7. Things might switch back in the morning. But going by the model runs from the last 12 hours or so, shower activity in the south is being significantly diminished. It'll be cold though with some very fresh nights and early mornings. If it's clear and the sun shines it will feel ok once the wind drops despite the cool/cold uppers Will the predictions of wintry scenes nationwide be proven right or wrong? Frost guaranteed I'd have thought. For something more than that? It's gonna be tense! Arf
  8. Cold GFS 18z Next week is looking very cold for Scotland and some other parts of the north with snow. Hillier areas will see a fair bit of snow I reckon. For southern UK it's looking cold with some frost but also bright and sunny. Nuisance breeze for 36 - 48 hours from Monday morning but once that drops out it will be ok daytime. Showers looking more and more isolated with every run down in the south
  9. That'll feel fresh but quite pleasant in my part of the world
  10. ECM Ensembles in graph form: Op pretty representative of the mean until Day 8 when the op becomes amongst the coldest members Aberdeen ensembles Scotland in for a longer cold spell on this evidence (no surprises there I guess). Easter Day mildness has increased for the south. Easter Monday/Tuesday coldness has also increased
  11. Damaging frost to end the ECM: But that would bring lovely bright, fresh conditions
  12. Indeed Like many of us, Rob liked it hard and penetrating It's the frost I'm worried about. If we could, somehow, see some lively showers and no frost, I'd cope with this spell
  13. To quote Chris Kamara, unbelievable GEFS Mean is getting lower for Monday/Tuesday. I don't want this cold spell but even I'm getting intrigued as to what conditions we'll end up with. Uppers do seem to lift a bit quicker than previous GEFS though EDIT: sorry again @General Cluster you beat me to it
  14. Unfortunately, I think a reload is NAILED (sorry @General Cluster) on:
  15. Agree to an extent. For the southern half of the UK that is true. For the north the cold looks set until next weekend on the Op and Control
  16. Think you're getting me mixed up with someone else pal. I've never taken anything seriously on here. Seems you are. You're coming across as pretty angry
  17. So those who don't want this cold spell come to the right place - the moans thread - to moan about it and then get moaned at for moaning in the moan thread. Good grief I dared disagree with someone in the model thread a few days ago, suggesting the cold might not come off (hey, I was wrong - **** happens) and got jumped on like a ton of bricks. I'm interested in the weather and like to see it warm in the summer with proper thunderstorms and cold and snowy from mid Nov - mid March but some folk take it all far too seriously. I hope the mods don't mind me posting this in the moans thread but a BBC report on the incoming cold weather: UK weather: Cold and gales forecast amid 'spring swing' in temperature WWW.BBC.CO.UK After this week's warm temperatures, colder weather over Easter could even bring snow in some areas. One quote from a Met Office spokesperson - "For Easter Monday, the daily high forecast for London is 7C (44.6F) and 6C (42.8F) in Leeds and Manchester" That is really not that unusual for April. Cold, yes, but not out of the ordinary. Reading the model thread you'd believe there were polar bears about to start roaming the 'arctic landscape' of the UK. I get people getting excited and I like cold and snow in winter but some just go a bit OTT. I've just had another mediocre winter IMBY but, reading the model thread in the winter, you'd think we were entering a new ice age at times. This hype was especially prevalent in January The irony being that when/if a lot of folk in Southern England get not-a-lot (of what they think they're getting) next week they'll be in this thread moaning
  18. Monday and Tuesday look utterly foul. But GFS and ECM op runs are, again, near the coldest in terms of forecast upper temps next week so it might not turn out that bad where you live for beyond Tuesday. Too early to say at this range of course.
  19. I agree. But it probably won't even snow for the majority of us. Not in any significant way anyway. There might be a little bit of snow falling in one or two of the showers. Scotland, NI and also Northern and Welsh hills might do 'well' for snow. Some coldies in the model thread are getting their hopes up. That's NEVER happened before of course!
  20. I think ECM and UKMO have actually slightly intensified the cold (albeit the very coldest uppers have been pushed out to Tuesday now for the south if ECM ensemble guidance is correct). A mean of -8 uppers in London in April is cold whichever way you look at it You could see quite a lot of wintry-mix action in your location. Coldie folk are getting quite excited about this upcoming spell and in Scotland, NI and the north of England (especially higher parts) they're probably right to be despite some slightly over-hyping it. For some parts of the north this could be a relatively long-lasting cool/cold spell but, as you say, the coldest air looks like it might get mixed out for England and Wales after 2 or 3 days... but that is FI and could be wrong of course. However, what I'm seeing in the models this morning for lowland southern UK I'm not seeing anything THAT unusual. Cold for the time of year, yes, but nothing extreme. At least not yet. Models might start to see something for the south in time. For now though, for the south, it looks like we'll get an interesting squall line early hours of Monday and then some hail and rain showers, maybe a flake or 4 of sleet on occasion, in between sunny spells. Nuisance cold with a nagging, constant breeze This is a bit of an IMBY post. You'll have better chances of seeing snow in Lincs I should think
  21. Extreme? Is it really extreme? Uppers of -7/-8 in April aren't unheard of. Pretty cold, yes. Extreme? I'm not so sure I think Stodge is right. Might be a flake or two in southern, lowland England but nothing of significance. North of a line from Manchester to Lincoln could see something unusual I s'pose. Scotland guaranteed to see winter for a few days
  22. Wouldn't worry. Something will turn up. I'd like to see a thunderstorm lasting for an hour or two. Don't often see them in colder weather so that'd be of interest, at least
  23. Ha! No worries mate! I've only got one who is young enough for that sort of stuff now. Sorry mods. Delete if necessary
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