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    Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters

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  1. To be fair there are plenty of weird holes in the Midlands Increasing likelihood of colder weather for the last 10 days of January. According to some longer range models, an even more robust cold pattern could take hold next month
  2. Very impressive GMAO? For me at this moment in time that acronym stands for Grinning My A**e Off! Let's hope it verifies
  3. If is the biggest word in the English language but... IF that verifies anywhere near like that and IF the HP just south west of Greenland and the Arctic High stop merely making love eyes at each other across Greenland's frozen dance floor and just hook up and actually use that dance floor, then the Met Office forecast would verify... spectacularly. Hope some ensembles sniff similar possibilities out too
  4. Agreed. Looks fairly ridgy at the Pole too if I'm reading the northern hemisphere charts correctly
  5. From promise last night to another GFS nightmare Look at the size of the Atlantic High in the last frame (the S'ly high pressure belt never really relents from about 174 hours). Grim Almost tempted to trot out my usual stuff about the trend for tropical high pressure cells to be horribly bloated and displaced too far north (in winter/autumn) over the last few years*. But I won't *Maybe the Azores High will get so far north in a decade or two it'll start to make it to Greenland and plunge us into cold winters by accident!
  6. I said I wouldn't be surprised. Not necessarily that I thought so. Surely it's possible for anyone to pay the Met Office for access to Glosea5? Or is it strictly not for sale? I would doubt the MO would turn income down
  7. Don't want to go off topic but it's caution only in the sense they don't want idiots from the media spouting off that the Met Office are calling a big freeze. They have to choose their words very carefully. So even if they're confident of a cold spell, until it is absolutely 100% nailed, they are right to use cautious language. Doesn't mean that they are changing their minds on anything at this stage
  8. I wouldn't be surprised if MeteoGroup pay the Met Office for access to GloSea5, though
  9. ECM 240 looks ok. Can definitely see a route to a cold pattern for the UK from that
  10. Hmmmm, where is that Azores High headed on the ECM 12z at 192? Encouraging!
  11. Very, very good Scandi High. Disrupting trough. Azores High sniffing a trip to Greenland Let's hope we reel this in
  12. Ha ha! It looks bad now but, despite my last few posts, I am sill cautiously optimistic that something of cold significance will happen this winter. A lot of respected weather folk on here and elsewhere are fairly bullish about it. No guarantees of course but the SSW modelling gives me hope that it will eventually downwell and impact Europe (especially NW and North Europe) in a snowy way
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