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    Warm summers, wild or foggy/frosty autumns and cold winters

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  1. Thanks All clusters have that high anomaly just to the West of Greenland too which isn't great. But hopefully clusters 1 and 2 will be near the mark by keeping a robust high over us or near enough to the south
  2. A nice weekend next weekend (away from the NW - sorry!) when I'll be on the Norfolk coast Looks flimsy though
  3. Will be interesting to see the ECM ensembles later. It could be an outlier mid-run and late for very different weather types
  4. I think that's a fair comment. This morning's ECM was the reverse to tonight's! Ok up to Day 8/9 then it turned into a horrible run. This time it's horrible earlier on and better by Day 8/9
  5. There appears to still be an awful lot we don't yet know about the background signals. I know no theory is full-proof in a science so prone to the butterfly effect like meteorology but background signals have looked ok the previous two winters and they have been dreadful If this summer turns out to be a stinker, in my neck of the woods it would be the first poor one in quite a while. Probably since 2012. We've had ok/average ones since then but never a shocker. So it could be argued we're due a poor one
  6. This summer, with so many people staying in the UK for a holiday due to the damn virus, could have been a real shot-in-the-arm for the UK tourist industry But not if people go away in this country and experience this utter guff: October-esque
  7. I'll bow to John Holmes's greater knowledge here but I believe this shows the jet south of the UK (the red contour line?) http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html So unsettled and West/North-Westerly
  8. Ok, I've got stick for using some emotive language. Fair enough, so I guess I'd better explain why the above is a 'horror' show for those who want settled, warm summer weather in summer (fancy that!) Basically you have a negatively tilted trough, centred just to Ireland's west, with the UK's name on it and then some sort of block over Iceland and then another negatively tilted trough angled towards us, leaving the Canadian coast, following that. So a bit crap for summer weather prospects But it might not happen as it's a fair way into the future but the trend seems to be going that way. I hope it doesn't
  9. That might be aimed at me. I only made one post! I'm not saying that particular horror show is going to happen but just commenting on a particular model frame in the model output discussion. And it is a horror chart for anyone wanting summer and the trend, including the Met Office update, is that prolonged summer won't be a feature of our weather in July As is usual, the south will get some fine days but heatwave territory it is not
  10. Funny how different people can perceive things differently. I wouldn't classify this June as poor when I remember back to some Junes we've experienced. When I was growing up in the 80s we had some horrific Junes Granted it's not been a classic. Just a pretty average month really. Not sure what the CET or precipitation figures are showing but I'd be amazed if they're not within the 'average' envelope On to July and projections are for a poor start to that month. But, again, signals that week 2 will see us move back into summer Over-reaction to a signal? Maybe but let's hope it's on the nose and that the above chart typifies what we will end up seeing throughout July and August.
  11. Nothing too horrific here although the north may experience some poor-ish conditions at times
  12. On to the models - unsettled this week, probably lasting into the weekend and then signs of summer returning 8 or 9 days from now. Even this poor-looking (on the face of it) chart from ECM you can easily imagine that little bump of high pressure in the Atlantic visiting our shores to settle things down
  13. Are they anomaly (anomalous from the norm) charts? If so, with relatively high pressure normal for the UK at this time of year, even cluster 2 on Day 8 might not be a disaster as it could indicate a slack low with warm air still getting in the mix? Or am I reading that wrong?
  14. Hello chalk I'd like to introduce you to cheese Although, away from the UK and Iceland there are actually a lot of similarities! And, as said before, even with that UKMO 144 chart, it's headed SW so we'll end up warm and, possibly, thundery by 192 hours anyway
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