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Frostbite1980

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Everything posted by Frostbite1980

  1. Frostbite1980
    Hi mate i believe the typhoon has caused confusion with regards to the MJO progression as we want it to move through phase 7 and 8 as soon as possible to aid northern blocking however the typhoon has caused a little confusion as to how quick that happens if at all. The MJO will have an effect on what all the main models ie GFS, UKMO and ECM churn out.
  2. Frostbite1980
    For those that are concerned about huge height rises to the north etc etc please just look at this video, it is a little lengthy but shows even if you get mild northern blocking you can have great winter weather and believe this may well be how this winter turns out.
  3. Frostbite1980
    Shall we all wait to see associated ensembles before everyone goes to commit harry karry lol.
  4. Frostbite1980
    Rain turning to snow in my eyes remember with a continental flow 850s are not as important.
  5. Frostbite1980
    Agreed. It called the SSW last year well and even if it didnt no model should be disguarded.
  6. Frostbite1980
    Maybe wait until you do have time to read all the great posts most spend the time putting on here for all to see
  7. Frostbite1980
    I know this changes a lot but this is just taking the biscuit, nearly all CFS un biased runs showing a record breaking strength to the PV. u 60N 10 hPa WWW.WEATHERISCOOL.COM
  8. Frostbite1980
    I like the word trying in that statement - could be snowy for some
  9. Frostbite1980
    Thats one cold continent which if nothing else is good to see so early.
  10. Frostbite1980
    Totally agree, there are many options on the table but none lead us to westerlies unless i have missed something? As far as i can see at the worst we are looking at a UK high and at best raging easterlies.
  11. Frostbite1980
    Have you seen @Ali1977 post, there are still a fair few xmas charts that give a cold and possibly snowy outcome.
  12. Frostbite1980
    I have said it before and i will say it again, some of our best winters have taken a few bites of the cherry before we get something special and i believe this may be another of those scenarios. IF this cold spell does not materialise i believe it wont be long before it does. The atmosphere this winter is not one of our normal raging zonality...the total opposite in fact.
  13. Frostbite1980
    I still think a UK high is the form horse for christmas but into the new year...
  14. Frostbite1980
    Now that is a sight for sore eyes
  15. Frostbite1980
    Prefer a NE wind but suppose it will do
  16. Frostbite1980
    GFS ensemble mean no where near as good as the 0z lets hope we improve on these again later this afternoon.
  17. Frostbite1980
    Thanks for the reply but we also have to take into consideration that the models and suites can change to show the opposite in a matter of days so a 45% chance of anything like what the GEM op was showing seems very high at this juncture especially when we are talking of a raging easterly that the GEM showed at 2 weeks out.
  18. Frostbite1980
    Nice angle of WAA there
  19. Frostbite1980
    Sorry mate but how do quantify that, when it was the coldest in the ens suite? I think some are really jumping the gun here without the evidence to back it up. To me its clear that the form horse currently is a cool possible cold, dry Christmas and the the chance of something colder thereafter. If we do get the cold in quicker then great but IMO that is a rank outsider when looking at the models and their suites.
  20. Frostbite1980
    Snow row also picking up. 10% chance for chrimbo i will take that for now Meteociel - Diagrammes GEFS WWW.METEOCIEL.FR
  21. Frostbite1980
    I will gladly take those odds
  22. Frostbite1980
    Wow thats brave considering we have seen cross model agreement before and it has all gone wrong at the last minute.
  23. Frostbite1980
    I like this guy and always explains reasons behind his forecasts, so will just pop it here
  24. Frostbite1980
    Yes if that was how it panned out but far to early to say.
  25. Frostbite1980
    They change daily, i have been keeping an eye on this over the last few weeks
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