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Frostbite1980

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Posts posted by Frostbite1980

    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, fromey said:

    How accurate Is this? It is the cfs. Just curious not having a dig at you 

    To be fair it is like all models it can flip flop a bit, however I tend to watch the GFS (green lines) and the bias corrected runs as they are closer to the mark but even two of those just about reverse the winds. Its more looking at trends moving forward for me to see if the trend continues or indeed increases the chances but this is the first time I have seen 2 bias corrected runs reverse the winds at 10hpa.

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    Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, supernova said:

    Inconsistency run-to-run makes it hard for me to have even the slightest confidence in any of the output currently (longer range stuff in particular) so a good time to seek out trend-spotting posts from some of our more experienced members such as @Kirkcaldy Weather's insightful note above or the sort of stuff @bluearmy@nick sussex@johnholmes (amongst others) are always so good at sharing. Mid month and beyond still my main focus of interest especially if we keep seeing a potential Strat warming (tho nothing currently to suggest a full SSW) such as on this evening's GFS. Slim pickings for sure but not unfamiliar territory over recent years...

     

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    First signs, moving into Feb.........2018 anyone?

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    Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    I would say personally that we still have a bit of time on our hands - perhaps until the end of the year before upper zonal winds will start to propagate to the trop. Until this point the coupling will still be broken.

    At every level except 2hPA the strat u wind is around average and this decreases the lower you get

    2hPA

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    10Hpa

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    70Hpa

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    !00Hpa

     

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    Thanks for that Chio, does this mean that the chances of a SSW is decreasing if the trop couples in the new year?

    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Frostbite1980

    36 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

    Have we had any op runs yet that keep the cold air that comes down from the north/northwest behind the big low circa 19th in place over us instead of moving it straight on?

    See my post above, Perb 19, although after that, it goes down hill. This is the only ens that shows this scenario though.

    Sorry didn't read your post properly, no, no op runs just the one ens.

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    Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    The dynamical recovery of the AO probably has a lot to do with the unstable inertia that has propped up the -VE AO state losing it's support with a loss of AAM and therefore the Eddy's 'retreating' across the Northern Hemisphere battlefield as the Rossby energy transfer retreats to being mostly across the tropics with a flatter Atlantic to probably come into place by early next year. Signs that we could get an increase again in January but for now I'd treat it as signs.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

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    The GWO supporting my view of the jet coming into line with the thermal wave northward transfer (of the jet momentum so the jet reverts back to normal) and eventual pattern flip into circumglobal ridges and it's been a general trend recently. Circumglobal ridges linked with Atlantic influence and mild and wet.

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    So beyond Christmas things may return back to normal with the occasional colder chance but I keep saying it...

    Take this chance on the face of it and it is the best early Winter chance since 2010, as simple as that, we've still got till Christmas before any chance of severe cold setting in goes and even beyond then we don't know for sure that we won't get helpful background influences.

    Do you not see a possible recurring pattern in January at the moment then EE?

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    Much of N.Europe would be bitterly cold next week in this set up.

    Notice the Scandinavian trough has been pouring deep cold south for some time.

    The GFS 06z would send even colder air this way on any easterly.

    That's the problem though, we just seem to be stuck under slack conditions and no sign of anything (yet) that will be bringing snow but to the usual locations, it would be such a shame to have such a prolonged cold spell and nothing to show for it but higher gas and electric bills.

    • Like 7
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