Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Frostbite1980

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    499

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Frostbite1980

  1. Frostbite1980
    CFS Now picking up a reversal at 10hpa........although the end of Feb is not ideal this could well be bought forward if it happens at all!
  2. Frostbite1980
    To be fair it is like all models it can flip flop a bit, however I tend to watch the GFS (green lines) and the bias corrected runs as they are closer to the mark but even two of those just about reverse the winds. Its more looking at trends moving forward for me to see if the trend continues or indeed increases the chances but this is the first time I have seen 2 bias corrected runs reverse the winds at 10hpa.
  3. Frostbite1980
    First signs, moving into Feb.........2018 anyone?
  4. Frostbite1980
    First signs of a possible SSW with the reversal of winds moving into Feb, I would take another 2018! One to keep an eye on.
  5. Frostbite1980
    I looked at the ens to see how many have some sort of snowy runners around 26th/27th and I found 7 with various degrees. It will be interesting to see if future ens show an increase in this scenario.
  6. Frostbite1980
    The problem is the closer it gets to the event the more chance there is of it occurring and seeing we are only 5 days away.....
  7. Frostbite1980
    Can I ask a question please? I know that the op run is at a higher resolution but heard the control isnt, so why do we always refer to the op and control in agreement, when we might as well say the op and perb 25 are in agreement? Genuine question
  8. Frostbite1980
    Only a 15 degree 850 difference between the control and op at the end
  9. Frostbite1980
    As I thought the op is very much at the bottom of the ens up to 192 and unless I am reading them wrong there are a fair few warmer options than the 0z. What makes me laugh is some of the ens have a lovely GL high and once again we are stuck in SWerlies.
  10. Frostbite1980
    Beautiful run by the 6z GFS however we need support from not only the ens but also the likes of ECM and UKMO before I start to take note. My take would be that this is either an outlier or right at the bottom of the pack, however i would be more than happy to be proved wrong. I might just have to take a few screen shots of this run mind
  11. Frostbite1980
    What a pretty site. I wonder where this month will end up! Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download.html
  12. Frostbite1980
    Thanks for that Chio, does this mean that the chances of a SSW is decreasing if the trop couples in the new year?
  13. Frostbite1980
    Maybe Chio or Blue will be able to help answer this one
  14. Frostbite1980
    I Know the vortex isn't coupled but after the beating up of the upper vortex I was surprised to see this.......some of the CFS runs going for a record strength at 10 hpa
  15. Frostbite1980
    This isn't what you want to see if we are looking for a SSW?
  16. Frostbite1980
    See my post above, Perb 19, although after that, it goes down hill. This is the only ens that shows this scenario though. Sorry didn't read your post properly, no, no op runs just the one ens.
  17. Frostbite1980
    Perb 19 please
  18. Frostbite1980
    Will that allow heights to build over greenland though or just a transient NW flow?
  19. Frostbite1980
    Do you not see a possible recurring pattern in January at the moment then EE?
  20. Frostbite1980
    This is what we want to evolve!
  21. Frostbite1980
    That is correct, however it is the trend I am looking at.
  22. Frostbite1980
    The AO is trending slightly negative to now suggesting the loss of heights to our north and the NAO is trending neutral long term. Make of it what you will.
  23. Frostbite1980
    That's the problem though, we just seem to be stuck under slack conditions and no sign of anything (yet) that will be bringing snow but to the usual locations, it would be such a shame to have such a prolonged cold spell and nothing to show for it but higher gas and electric bills.
  24. Frostbite1980
    Where have I heard that before..... Could well be true though
  25. Frostbite1980
    My god peeps how much fun is this? Normally its how wet and windy it will be..... this is a real treat
×
×
  • Create New...