To be fair it is like all models it can flip flop a bit, however I tend to watch the GFS (green lines) and the bias corrected runs as they are closer to the mark but even two of those just about reverse the winds. Its more looking at trends moving forward for me to see if the trend continues or indeed increases the chances but this is the first time I have seen 2 bias corrected runs reverse the winds at 10hpa.
I looked at the ens to see how many have some sort of snowy runners around 26th/27th and I found 7 with various degrees.
It will be interesting to see if future ens show an increase in this scenario.
Can I ask a question please? I know that the op run is at a higher resolution but heard the control isnt, so why do we always refer to the op and control in agreement, when we might as well say the op and perb 25 are in agreement? Genuine question
As I thought the op is very much at the bottom of the ens up to 192 and unless I am reading them wrong there are a fair few warmer options than the 0z. What makes me laugh is some of the ens have a lovely GL high and once again we are stuck in SWerlies.
Beautiful run by the 6z GFS however we need support from not only the ens but also the likes of ECM and UKMO before I start to take note. My take would be that this is either an outlier or right at the bottom of the pack, however i would be more than happy to be proved wrong. I might just have to take a few screen shots of this run mind
I Know the vortex isn't coupled but after the beating up of the upper vortex I was surprised to see this.......some of the CFS runs going for a record strength at 10 hpa