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Frostbite1980

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Stevenage, Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow and storms
  1. Yes statistacly the coldest month of winter however we have easterly winds with 850 temps above 0 so statistics and the time of year does not guarantee conditions. Warranted the NWwesterly will provide some interest to favoured spots that do well in this PM situation however although a biting wind for others I feel it’s mainly dry and those sheltered from the wind could feel quite pleasant. i do believe this could be a starter before the main course though and if we can get a SSW all could join in the fun and games 😊
  2. She’s going under and pressure rising over east Greenland just need another trough to slide se before the high in the mid Atlantic belly flops over the U.K.
  3. Well at least the states go back in the freezer again
  4. I may not post in forums like this but I also have watched NWP for years and I can tell you as any other honest person on here would have to say the same that the GFS has had a better verification of certain situations in our locale in the past than the likes of the ECM and UKMO in the past (please forget the verification stats as they are not specific to the U.K.) im not saying any model is right but to call one rubbish is short sighted! As you say if the GFS is so bad why is everyone waiting for it’s 4 runs it churns out daily?
  5. NWS why do you keep insisting that the GFS is so wrong? The event hasn’t passed yet so has not verified and as it is sticking to its guns like other models I wouldn’t be so sure it is wrong. Do you know something we don’t? And if it does verify will your opinion change? Im not looking for altercation however there is far too much GFS must be wrong it’s unreal....
  6. Can you back that up? The way I see it, people only see what they want to see and god forbid a million $ super computer shows something you don’t like it’s useless. I watch all models and don’t take any as gospel but look at the trends! If in two weeks the GFS picked out a stonking run most would be saying it’s the best model in the world and has out done the ECM many a time...seriously let’s take on board all models and not pick and choose which one shows us the best outcome....
  7. Wind picking up a fair bit now. Still only rain at this point. edit it’s snowing now
  8. However the forecasts are based on old data. The last event only gave this area significant snow chances after the event was nearly done. Not saying they are wrong this time though.
  9. The forecast though would have been made with old data? The last snow event was wrongly forecast in this area until it had been snowing for several hours and then the forecast from the Met changed early that morning.
  10. You know its a bad GFS run when, when its finished there are no comment lol. All in all pretty uninspiring however i still hold out hope with the MJO entering a more favourable phase as explained by more clever people than myself! I have a feeling the output may look a lot different in the next 5 days.
  11. Wednesday night is not without interest some with elevation may see a little white stuff as the cooler upper air (-4 850) undercuts the precipitation. There maybe a few surprises again. SM any thoughts?
  12. Still not buying it with the position of the low right now....I think a correction west by say maybe 50 miles! Rain or snow, I still think anyone over 150m could see something of interest! Now I really am going to sleep lol
  13. It is but looks further nw to where it was modelled at this time....could be wrong though been a long long day for me but looking at the position of her she would near enough have to go due east from that position to miss most and even then Kent would get clipped...but as I said a long day so will see what’s happening at 7.30 tomorrow morning lol night all
  14. That looks a lot further nw than forecast TI unless it swings more e/ne it could get interesting for some
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