[Winter methodology tables]

Very useful resource ?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Good night peeps, I guess some of you will wake to a covering, so please post the pics, unlikely here in south London tonight, though stranger things  have happened ...

I’d say S London has a better chance than here near Heathrow! Good luck on getting snow tho 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

8 minutes ago, shotski said:

Absolutely speechless ? 

when was the last time we saw a mean like that at t-360 ??? 2010 ?? 

It’s not a mean btw, it’s the control run 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Just now, lassie23 said:

if you listened to them lot in the MOD thread, we were going to struggle to get to 1c

That was for later in the week anyways..

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Get the cold in first then worry about PPN! I’d happily take an easterly even if it short lived wk1 Feb

[Model output discussion - mid January]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS mean now as flat as a pancake even out to 264, another chance gone I'm afraid.

Gone is a strong word, there is huge uncertainty after Day 6, so I wouldn’t discount more flipping within OP runs

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

A few snowflakes falling here!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Arpege decent again for parts of this region..

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Snow being reported in parts of Midlands and North Home Counties, might start changing over under any heavy precip here 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

Categorically NO. The GFS shows rain for most if not ALL southern England south of the m4 I'm afraid expect cold rain and you won't be disappointed (again) some people never learn 

Cant discount it though. Also last time I checked, Arpege was the higher resolution model out of the two and performed better in most recent snow events...

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, DonnaThw said:

I need it to come down just a tin tiny tiny ny bit more. Do you think that might happen

Id think in this set up you would see falling snow that would struggle to accumulate but yes there is a chance this system moves more south and allows you to get into the zone of settling snow

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Last snow event of January possible on Sunday, arpege gives more snow to us before mild air returns

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

We were never predicted a severe cold spell? Only those who looked on model runs at 240hr + would think that 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

This thread is just as downbeat as the MOD thread... can’t write off January if models don’t know what’s happening T+96!! Certainly exciting times ahead with a reload of cold air possible if this cold spell dies out. In the more reliable time frame, wintry showers could spread well inland on Tues/Wed and there is a possible chance that the runner could be similar if not further south/north than Dec 10ths’ one which did deliver to many parts of Southern England. Don’t give up hope yet, winter still has until March, and even in spring we can get snow..

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

I’d expect a reload of cold probably around the 23rd if the Atlantic wins out on this one

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

The mod thread is Full of IMBYism they should keep that to the regionals!

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

2 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Nope, however it could well produce some decent snow as it moves over... Many factors depending, as ever it will be different again in morning... But like everyone else on here we are all hoping it is in the right place to deliver something wintry.

So the further north the better 

Unless you live in Central / North Scotland, I wouldn’t be hoping for a more N track, the more N and deep the LP is the more milder air it brings with it, so therefore less of a snow event. The further south and more shallower it is the more of a snow event it would be

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Hoping further outputs change the track further south and more shallow, wouldn’t enjoy this at all IMBY

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

I’d expect a mix between GFS and UKMO outputs wrt the runner on Thursday

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Southwards corrections soon on that 06z low  ?

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I cant access the Ec snow depth charts as im in work..can anyone give an update please

 

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

Much better ECM today compared to yesterday evenings run.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

I think it’s best you two (Steve and Crewe) agree to disagree on this case, and leave it to PMs not on this discussion thread..

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nothing iconic to open the 18z output I'm afraid.

Isn’t that the 12z?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Does seem to be a regional bias to thinking how the models will pan out looking at alot of posters locations!

1. If you live anywhere but the SE of England = polar maritime westerly / northwesterlies likely to win out

2. If you live in the SE of England = the Atlantic may not win out because blocking is underestimated, the Atlantic break through / Pm flow is not in the reliable timeframe anyway, look east at cold continental flow, etc.

Me, I think there's a good chance that the Atlantic trough axis will remain intact and push through close to the north of UK, with a PM flow ensuing, but it maybe more delayed (day or 2) than models indicate, increasingly cold surface flow off continent before then.

 

 

Thank you for noticing this, lots of IMBYism to whatever delivers snow to their neck of the woods, not very helpful for newcomers to understand what is happening... The models aren’t doing too well either which kinda causes this issue..