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Everything posted by OfficialKevWX
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Model output discussion - mid January
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gone is a strong word, there is huge uncertainty after Day 6, so I wouldn’t discount more flipping within OP runs- 2,804 replies
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This thread is just as downbeat as the MOD thread... can’t write off January if models don’t know what’s happening T+96!! Certainly exciting times ahead with a reload of cold air possible if this cold spell dies out. In the more reliable time frame, wintry showers could spread well inland on Tues/Wed and there is a possible chance that the runner could be similar if not further south/north than Dec 10ths’ one which did deliver to many parts of Southern England. Don’t give up hope yet, winter still has until March, and even in spring we can get snow..
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’d expect a reload of cold probably around the 23rd if the Atlantic wins out on this one- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unless you live in Central / North Scotland, I wouldn’t be hoping for a more N track, the more N and deep the LP is the more milder air it brings with it, so therefore less of a snow event. The further south and more shallower it is the more of a snow event it would be- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hoping further outputs change the track further south and more shallow, wouldn’t enjoy this at all IMBY- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’d expect a mix between GFS and UKMO outputs wrt the runner on Thursday- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Southwards corrections soon on that 06z low ?- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Much better ECM today compared to yesterday evenings run.- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - into 2018
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think it’s best you two (Steve and Crewe) agree to disagree on this case, and leave it to PMs not on this discussion thread.. -
Model output discussion - into 2018
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Isn’t that the 12z? -
Model output discussion - into 2018
OfficialKevWX replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thank you for noticing this, lots of IMBYism to whatever delivers snow to their neck of the woods, not very helpful for newcomers to understand what is happening... The models aren’t doing too well either which kinda causes this issue..