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Everything posted by OfficialKevWX

  1. I’d say S London has a better chance than here near Heathrow! Good luck on getting snow tho
  2. Get the cold in first then worry about PPN! I’d happily take an easterly even if it short lived wk1 Feb
  3. Gone is a strong word, there is huge uncertainty after Day 6, so I wouldn’t discount more flipping within OP runs
  4. Snow being reported in parts of Midlands and North Home Counties, might start changing over under any heavy precip here
  5. Cant discount it though. Also last time I checked, Arpege was the higher resolution model out of the two and performed better in most recent snow events...
  6. Id think in this set up you would see falling snow that would struggle to accumulate but yes there is a chance this system moves more south and allows you to get into the zone of settling snow
  7. Last snow event of January possible on Sunday, arpege gives more snow to us before mild air returns
  8. We were never predicted a severe cold spell? Only those who looked on model runs at 240hr + would think that
  9. This thread is just as downbeat as the MOD thread... can’t write off January if models don’t know what’s happening T+96!! Certainly exciting times ahead with a reload of cold air possible if this cold spell dies out. In the more reliable time frame, wintry showers could spread well inland on Tues/Wed and there is a possible chance that the runner could be similar if not further south/north than Dec 10ths’ one which did deliver to many parts of Southern England. Don’t give up hope yet, winter still has until March, and even in spring we can get snow..
  10. I’d expect a reload of cold probably around the 23rd if the Atlantic wins out on this one
  11. The mod thread is Full of IMBYism they should keep that to the regionals!
  12. Unless you live in Central / North Scotland, I wouldn’t be hoping for a more N track, the more N and deep the LP is the more milder air it brings with it, so therefore less of a snow event. The further south and more shallower it is the more of a snow event it would be
  13. Hoping further outputs change the track further south and more shallow, wouldn’t enjoy this at all IMBY
  14. I’d expect a mix between GFS and UKMO outputs wrt the runner on Thursday
  15. Southwards corrections soon on that 06z low ?
  16. Much better ECM today compared to yesterday evenings run.
  17. I think it’s best you two (Steve and Crewe) agree to disagree on this case, and leave it to PMs not on this discussion thread..
  18. Thank you for noticing this, lots of IMBYism to whatever delivers snow to their neck of the woods, not very helpful for newcomers to understand what is happening... The models aren’t doing too well either which kinda causes this issue..
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