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Devonshire

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Everything posted by Devonshire

  1. Devonshire
    There may be no "strong" signal, but there may be a signal - maybe a moderate one - also, as I understand it, there is no strong signal in the model output. Moral: don't be devastated, just chill, like weather is set too!
  2. Devonshire
    What is obvious about this to you, and one or two others (aside from the different colours), might be lost on many reading this - myself included! Can you please explain the subtleties in terms of the hunt for cold in the UK?
  3. Devonshire
    Job done - happy sheep.
  4. Devonshire
    No choice for me - have to walk a mile and a half up the hill to hay the sheep and dig them out of their huts if it is really drifting! That will serve me right for my wishing this on!
  5. Devonshire
    No - of course not: it is 10 days out and provides detailed indications of snow depth at a great many points across GB, Ireland and NW Europe - it has as much chance of verifying as you have of winning every Euromillions jackpot between now and then buying one ticket in each draw.
  6. Devonshire
    Most accurate run against what? Genuine question.
  7. Devonshire
    There - fixed that
  8. Devonshire
    When I last looked the Gulf Stream was an ocean current - not sure how you are seeing it in that chart - unless the weather expected to give you a downturn in fortune, leading to goodbye personal jet - in which case, commiserations!
  9. Devonshire
    Is that when the ensembles are out? Still a little under 10 mins to wait ...
  10. Devonshire
    The Sahara has already had snow this month
  11. Devonshire
    I say, that's a little harsh on some of the well-reasoned responses to a flurry of Wa***** posts (thanks Wa**** for opening up page 13 of my 'ignored' posters - for those getting exercised by some of the irrelevant stuff on here, hover over the poster profile, click on ignore ... they tend to be serial offenders and reading the thread without them makes for lower blood pressure! Be your own moderator!). Anyway, thanks for the serious/knowledgeable posts from the usual people at this time of intrigue and excitement - the less experienced on here benefit greatly from your posts
  12. Devonshire
    I am not sure I will trust your weather predictions given that you fail to predict Easter accurately!!!
  13. Devonshire
    My App is also showing that Although since neither South-West nor South-East see snow on that - and barely anything South of the M4 - then I'm not sure there is any chance of snow in the South on that chart!
  14. Devonshire
    I am definitely in the camp that appreciates solar/lunar (have to be careful about saying 'extra-terrestrial'!) influences on climate and weather - I am just interested that a couple of times you have made a comment on this thread about strong solar wind and it's upcoming effect on our weather patterns and I wondered what was behind this. Maybe someone has done research looking at arrival of solar wind and co-incident (I am not saying coincidental!) changes in model trends and patterns. If this is 'out-there' it would be useful in interpreting the model outputs. Maybe in the not too distant future we will be considering solar activity (current and far-side/incoming) as teleconnections - and maybe they will be factored into (some of) the models?
  15. Devonshire
    Thanks Northernlights - I will take a look. I am aware of sunspot-cycle - climate links, but was really quite interested in shorter-term solar links to terrestrial weather, of the sort that could possibly be incorporated into (or inform interpretation of) the gfs/ecm/ukmo model output that we look at here. Sudden changes in trends/patterns (such as disappearance/downgrades of cold events!) are interesting/frustrating - I have little doubt that non-terrestrial events have an influence (not sure I should call this a 'long-range teleconnection'!) I will watch the video...
  16. Devonshire
    I think I missed the detail on this - are you proposing a link between (coronal hole stream) solar wind and terrestrial jet-stream behaviour? If so, could you please post a link to scientific publications that outline this - and ideally research (and especially models) that predict future solar wind streams that are Earth-directed? I find this area really interesting but haven't come across any papers that set this out in a way that is meaningful for weather forecasting. MODS: I think this IS thread-related: it would be great if a link were established and models available that could inform forecasting using the usual models discussed here. (Is it possible that Met O and others have models that incorporate solar activity, but which are not available to the public?)
  17. Devonshire
    Thanks for keeping it short and to the point - although you classify yourself as a 'learner', your posts always contain some interesting angles. I appreciate brevity that does not compromise by missing anything of importance out. I look forward to visiting the teleconnections thread.
  18. Devonshire
    I am not sure where you are getting a 'strong solar wind' hit from - there are 2 small coronal holes on Earth side of Sun - certainly nothing out of the ordinary to my eyes, especially in light of much larger ones that trundle round periodically (days, not weeks). I will keep an eye on the jet though in case it exhibits any extraordinary short-notice behaviour - same with LPs, though my (limited!) understanding is that flares/CMEs are more implicated than solar wind in affecting strength/track of storm systems. To appease mods: if there is a sudden effect on the Jet I guess we can look at sudden (actual) departures from modelled jet track /LPs in very short term - as well as any sudden large shifts in models' track of jet/LPs, wrt timing of solar wind inpacts .... maybe. It would be great to think that Solar teleconnections could be included in (public) models - or at least included (mechanistically) by those who are switched on to teleconnections. I suspect this conversation is for another place though ...
  19. Devonshire
    Um, no. Unless you are off on holiday next week? "A tropical climate in the Köppen climate classification is a non-arid climate in which all twelve months have mean temperatures of at least 18 °C (64 °F)." Edit: Ah, unless you mean comparable to half way up Kilimanjaro?
  20. Devonshire
    Would you be kind enough to say why?
  21. Devonshire
    Sorry to hear that ... in other news, the models suggest that even us down in the SW might see snow- even next week.
  22. Devonshire
    thanks Southender - looks interesting, but not quite what I was thinking of (unless I just couldn't see the controls) - I was thinking of a model that would allow you to slice down through one 3d image (taking a vertical section or plane, if you like, so as to see what is happening at different heights) - I realise that it would require a lot of data/bandwidth to do in realtime. I have seen some 3d representations of what happens to the vortex in a warming event somewhere - a smaller representation of different sliders over the UK is what I would find very interesting...
  23. Devonshire
    You appear to be missing a dimension BM! I also sometimes wonder whether a 3-d representation (in 2-d of course - not talking holograms) of model output is available (to the public) - it would make things a lot clearer to me (possibly). A 3-d representation of a slider would make an interesting video - does anyone know of one?
  24. Devonshire
    Not to mention ...
  25. Devonshire
    I disagree - these gentlemen are far more dyer than ANY strat charts you will ever see:
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