Devonshire

ahh, that answers one of my questions!

Some observations/questions Nick: - what part of the globe is that for? (our little country is rather small in the scheme of things!) - and how is 'success' measured for the sake of those performance stats (rained in London when it said it would?)? Also, if those are correlations (predicted/actual something), then 77% of variance explained by ECM compared to 66% for NAVGEM is not really so huge a difference - and how does that translate into snow/no snow in UK?!; Add to that that the SSW is likely to stretch these models to different degress (and the stats won't have been achieved in those conditions in any case!) CORE MESSAGE: stats (especially of 'fuzzy' measurements) can appear to be more authoritative than they actually are for any given purpose. I would think those figures are about as useful as a proverbial chocolate teapot at the moment. Happy to be convinced otherwise

I may be wrong, but I get the impression that the GFS parallel/FV3, or whatever it is best called, has been well-received of late - or is that just it has been providing the best-looking charts rather then most accurate?

MODS - any chance of a 'Happy New Year' thread for those who don't want to bother appending such worthy sentiments to some proper model commentary? - x hundred members might otherwise derail this thread at a rather interesting time!? (Bah Humbug)

... although interestingly on the charts you show, the mean looks more attractive than the operational!

Don't let the moaners get you down! (no snow flurries today, but a flurry of newly-ignored members getting me close to 22 pages of them now)! MODS - maybe 'the ignored' can be notified each time someone sets them to that status - or at least given stats as to how many people are ignoring them?! I actually think the last couple weeks and upcoming couple weeks of model watching are the most interesting for a long while - looking to see how the different models handle the SSW and indeed how the SSW will play out. I particularly look forward to the posts of the several forum members who take time to put together thoughtful posts, we all know who they are: the few who nobody sets to 'ignore'!!! I also agree, it is bizarre how some posters are nor only verging on calling winter over, but denying any taste of winter so far - even down in Devon this winter we have had several frosts, with snowfall up the road on higher Dartmoor, and several more frosts to come this week. Other more northerly/easterly members have had a proper taste. Happy New Year - and may it be a frosty, snowy, chilly one in the not too far off future! I am most definitely not going to be lowering my expectations!

Better still - make a NY resolution to stop moaning (or take it elsewhere)!

Realism as in "Let's just cancel winter"?! Ha ha - you are funny! Thanks for spreading some festive cheer and not suggesting cancelling Christmas!

Surely it is not?!

I'd recommend it too - I am on page 21 of blocked moaners - that's over 500 ignored in a couple of years! ??

I guess the ssw graphics do come from models - I quite like to see them as context to operational runs. I do feel that when ssw graphics are posted, though, more often than not they could do with a little more meat in terms of interpretation viz our hunt for cold (as often happens with other model graphics too)

Impossible to answer that question as you don't provide a reference point (much less likely than it was when?). Perhaps I will assume you mean since August this year - in which case I would answer 'no - it is much more likely now'! (chin-up)

I suspect the comment related to there being a lot of babble on here without any model evidence or discussion - I feel the same. And just as frustrated when a chart is posted with a one liner like 'extraordinary', without saying why, or just '18z' etc. All of which happen now and then

Your profile doesn't list a location - are you in a monsoon part of the world? ... because that sure doesn't sound like anywhere in the uk!

I am not sure how you know how his opinions are changing (psychic?)!

John, I can see the logic of this in terms of expectation management (and emotional resilience!) - but this begs the question - that has probably been asked (and answered) before somewhere; are the 0, 6, 12, and 18z runs (e.g. for GFS) different in the assumptions, algorithms, no. of data points built in (or anything else) - or is it simply a case of different starting data being put in? (notwithstanding weather balloons avoiding Santa's sleigh over Christmas and related myths)

You give us hope in world (& thread) where hope is sorely needed!

Hmmmm- something has to give between your two opinions!

ummm - Chaos Theory? Not sure if you are being ironic - if so, apologies - I am a little' emoji-autistic'.

Remind me; is this thread about the hunt for cold or the extremely persistent and wide-ranging hunt for mild?!

Thanks - so a good lead time for that to be finessed to ideal outcome.

What is the date/time of that Steve - cannot see from image.

Thank you very much!

Ah, ok - I wonder if there is an easy way of distinguishing the parallel run from the others - indicating which category it is in, to see its trends alongside the other trends?

I really do like visual presentations of trends - such as this. Am I correct in thinking this shows the distribution of gfs ensembles into your categories? If so, I would wager that a few on here might be interested in such presentations for other models - especially the gfs parallel! I guess similar information can also be gleaned from cluster images that are posted on a run by run basis, but I like this presentation of trends.