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Devonshire

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Posts posted by Devonshire

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, RabbitEars said:

    OK because I can't trawl 10+ pages of ramp and moan in here during working hours, can anyone provide either a link to a clear synopsis created on the thread, or a brief overview of what is being projected please?

    Short sentences like "this is a coldies wonderland" or "boom", or "wait for more runs"... don't help our learning and understanding!

    I suggest start going through how ever many pages you can handle and start compiling an 'Ignore List', adding those who you think are wind-up merchants or have little to offer in way of analysis. You'll soon find it manageable going though 20 pages in no time! (I have about 28 pages of 25 members on my ignore list)

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    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    You’re number 5 to the block list...goodbye. 

    You are a tolerant sort - I am on page 25 of blocked 'members' ...

    speaking of which, can anyone (ideally Mr M himself) confirm if the following shows a couple of Christmas chipolatas whose link might unravel to form a 'Murr Sausage'? (I like to think I have learnt something over the years, but sometimes doubt it...)

    image.png.a2d438399489ea9269a5455cb15f3ecc.png

    • Like 3

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    so many deniers lurking around? Things sounding a bit desperate this evening as we are now talking about other planets! Where is your evidence to back the statement you made?

    Only lurking until the nonsense starts appearing    - some evidence (for you to deny):

     

    • Like 1

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Timer said:
    4 hours ago, Catacol said:

    2 things I don’t want to do now - firstly to suggest that winter is over now (my more pessimistic recent posts have been guilty of that) and secondly to ignite a debate on AGW.

    But ...

    Great post!

    for goodness sake, get a grip the two of you. Yes, there are fluctuations and variability in climate - always have been and always will be (remember a few years back we were told our children would never see snow?!). If AGW is to blame, how do you explain recent climate change on other planets in the solar system?!

    The climate IS changing - better look at the decay of our magnetosphere and simultaneous upcoming grand solar minimum. Human pollution and environmental destruction is bad, and needs to stop - but there are other, bigger things going on with the climate.

    In the meantime, get braced for some very cold winters after the next solar cycle...

     

    • Like 5

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Catacol said:
    16 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

    That is interesting. I guess you are talking about something other than the Contingency Planners forecasts that are publicly available on the Met website - I don't see a 2-5 day option on there. How would a local council get hold of that information (not sure our Parish Council has it!).

    Insider info....

    I guess that it is distributed to County Council (Highways) departments and not lower tiers of government - which is all good for main highways, but not so good for local routes that smaller local councils have to keep open! Off topic I know, but important nonetheless...

    ... back on topic - is no-one able to post a chart or two demonstrating what the 'pivot' issue is regarding likely snowfall totals?

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Meanwhile rain here for the SW today and I've seen the MetO 2 - 5 day outlook given to councils for their gritting plans. Snow not a feature

    That is interesting. I guess you are talking about something other than the Contingency Planners forecasts that are publicly available on the Met website - I don't see a 2-5 day option on there. How would a local council get hold of that information (not sure our Parish Council has it!).

    • Like 1

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    (Upgrades this morning! - for Dartmoor that is! IMBY is where it is at! Four days of little snowlflake icons on the Met-O forecast! Woohoo - IMBY! South correction, Dartmoor-centric correction!)

    - there, now I have begun with a nod to the current thread modus operandi, I wonder if anyone can explain what this 'pivot' issue is and how it might happen - ideally with charts (no need to be with respect to Dartmoor!)

    • Like 2

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

    Named after the areas they affect "North of M4" and "South of M4"

     

    And while I'm here, I'll repeat my question from a few days ago, could the two "North of M4" and "South of M4" merge and if they did would that give us an intense low?

    I was't going to mention this until successful, but I have proposed to Highways agency that M4 be re-located to run along the Tamar - thus keeping Knocker and everyone else happy with their respective snow fortunes ... sorry, back on topic ...

    • Like 1

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
    6 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    the low hasnt even developed yet

    So? You can't ignore the trends for it.. MetO are keeping a close eye, they run dozens of options. Yes we won't have nailed an exact track til Sunday/Monday.

    All about trends at this stage.

    There are several lows that I have seen modelled to affect us over the coming week to 10 days - for sake of clarity, can we start naming them?! (or at least post a chart and indicate which one is being talked about)

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Devonshire
    typo!

    2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    No just telling it like it is ! I don’t do spin .

    Given your location, sometimes I am not sure if your reading of the models - and consequent up-beat or down-beat reactions - concern SW France or UK. Most on here interested in UK, and might be mislead if you are giving a downbeat analysis that is based on your neck of the woods. I know you sometimes mention where you are referencing, but not in the post above about flattening pattern. A southerly tracking jet might bring mild,  wet and windy to SW France when we are in cold and snowy land in UK - and flatter in SW France is not likely to be so much a problem for UK coldies!

    • Like 3

    The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

     

    12 minutes ago, More Snow said:

    Mean while ive got an incredibly itchy bottom.... just about as on topic as many other posts in here tonight. jeez its hard work.

    Sorry to hear that mate hope you get well soon.

    I think MS is just sharing the latest folklore weather divination tool - I've heard of crinkling seaweed, dancing otters etc, but not that one - must be related to a black hole anomaly down south ... in other news ...

    does anyone know of any verification stats or studies on modelling downwelling of SSW to trop - either globally or for a particular locale. I would have thought this to be an area of academic interest.

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    The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

    I see many of the "respected forecasters" (you know who they all are) 

    ... yes, thankfully we do know who they all are!  - and they are respected for many reasons - notably, depth of knowledge, and balanced reporting - albeit with a twinkle in the eye when they see a sniff of some Wintery interlude . They are easy to distinguish from others who post on here with a less developed knowledge, fragile emotional outbursts, or even deliberate attempts to sow despondency in what is otherwise a very optimistic thread! ?‍♀️

    • Like 14
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