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  1. You give us hope in world (& thread) where hope is sorely needed!
  2. ummm - Chaos Theory? Not sure if you are being ironic - if so, apologies - I am a little' emoji-autistic'.
  3. Remind me; is this thread about the hunt for cold or the extremely persistent and wide-ranging hunt for mild?!
  4. Thanks - so a good lead time for that to be finessed to ideal outcome.
  5. What is the date/time of that Steve - cannot see from image.
  6. Ah, ok - I wonder if there is an easy way of distinguishing the parallel run from the others - indicating which category it is in, to see its trends alongside the other trends?
  7. I really do like visual presentations of trends - such as this. Am I correct in thinking this shows the distribution of gfs ensembles into your categories? If so, I would wager that a few on here might be interested in such presentations for other models - especially the gfs parallel! I guess similar information can also be gleaned from cluster images that are posted on a run by run basis, but I like this presentation of trends.
  8. There may be no "strong" signal, but there may be a signal - maybe a moderate one - also, as I understand it, there is no strong signal in the model output. Moral: don't be devastated, just chill, like weather is set too!
  9. What is obvious about this to you, and one or two others (aside from the different colours), might be lost on many reading this - myself included! Can you please explain the subtleties in terms of the hunt for cold in the UK?
  10. No choice for me - have to walk a mile and a half up the hill to hay the sheep and dig them out of their huts if it is really drifting! That will serve me right for my wishing this on!
  11. No - of course not: it is 10 days out and provides detailed indications of snow depth at a great many points across GB, Ireland and NW Europe - it has as much chance of verifying as you have of winning every Euromillions jackpot between now and then buying one ticket in each draw.
  12. Most accurate run against what? Genuine question.