Jordan S

Whilst higher pressure than we've been use to for last week of April is still favoured along with occasional brief wetter conditions especially from our south, there is obviously a lower possibility that the evolution below takes place which I was going to post on yesterday but got completely sidetracked, would take us to square one and my previous posts then being too ambitious shall we say of drier weather than we've been use to by then. Thankfully the synoptic pressure pattern being low though around 30% Not worth worrying about at this stage, with a fine few days to come further south at last in the meantime. Will try and do an in depth update later in the week, especially in regards to late April, but mental health isn't doing me well atm so may post less often. Take care.

Afternoon Just want to quote a couple of parts of my previous update for this upcoming drier trend around mid month, the outlook is fairly close to what looks like transpiring as we head past the 11th. Definitely looks somewhat better than we've been use to for a long time.. High pressure back on the scene, but unsettled interludes as expected, particularly in the north, but now with conditions not particularly warm at first and rather cool at times in the north/northeast with wintry precipitation on some high ground occasionally, driest weather tending to be in the south/southwest through the mid month period. Now as for last week of April onwards.. taking a snippet from my outlook for the end of April and through May.. I stick by this quoted post of mine below for now, It is more likely to be drier than we've been use to with higher pressure a more frequent visitor to the UK, but the potential for occasional but very wet/thundery spells from our south/southeast, causing potential flooding for brief periods. We'll see how this plays out.

Just a quick one today Yes @WYorksWeather A surge of unusually high upper air temps for Friday/Saturday in the southeast/east of England. An impressive low pressure system for April set to move north to our west later Friday and into Saturday party responsible for the surge in upper air temperatures, the low spreading heavy rain northwards through western and northern parts of the UK where it will be cooler, with over 3 inches possible in some areas exposed to the southerly wind, southern and eastern England generally drier though some outbreaks of rain could occur at times especially from a cold front on Saturday, very windy with gales in the west and north. Quite cloudy in the south and southeast of the England with surface temperature in the east of England upto around 19-21c in any sunshine, a bit less warm in cloudier parts of the east, though these drier conditions brushed away eastwards by that cold front, some drier weather at times on Sunday before a low pressure system brings more rain for many at times early next week, thunderstorms possibly following behind weather fronts into the south of England with the risk of hail.

Quite extraordinary model outputs atm, for example an ensemble model that I'll show below as a gif from last night of many models together, shows the UK being a low pressure magnet for its entire 16 day run, it's a typical synoptic that has taken place for a long time now. In these set of charts, barely a ridge of high pressure over the UK for the majority of the times with no high pressure cells setting up over the UK even for several hours, never seen that on this chart before, it's clear that unsettled or even at times very unsettled weather is likely to feature upto 10th April at least, for the majority, with confidence rating of 90+% of this occurring, less unsettled possibly at times after 11th-12th April particularly the south with increased temps for southern UK, but by and large higher pressure although closer to the UK to our south/southeast, not having much or any influence in the UK weather in terms of drying us out for any length of time before and over mid April and that hasn't changed from previous thoughts when I did my previous post. Part of the reason this unsettled weather has continued so long is partly due to a slightly self feeding mechanism this wetter period we are stuck in and have been stuck in for several months has produced. Saturated soils and landmass generally promote more instability/lower pressure, whilst bone dry ground will generally have the opposite effect without the presence and influence of wind direction shifts/water sources/significant background synoptical changes further afield. Works a similar way to heat domes/ frozen landmass under snow cover. It's uncommon to see sudden flips from long lasting extremely wet conditions such as the one we are in currently, to fairly or very dry sadly, though certainly not impossible, and what tends to happen if a drier spell is likely to develop for a more significant period of time (from natural variability of weather inevitably at our latitude and changes from further a field that are very pronounced) is more and more ridges of high pressure are "thrown" over a landmass particularly wet more and more frequently over a period of several days or weeks, this largely applies to areas such as the UK where synoptics can move along very quickly. In theory you'd say the longer this wet spell continues then bigger and bigger shifts in weather patterns further afield would be required to shift the pattern enough to change the weather conditions to dry but many smaller scale things changing at once would of course help produce a similar outcome, of course the pattern will definitely change to something dry and that's why as never ending as these lows are, there will be a shift to a more typical UK weather pattern or sustained high pressure, but perhaps not for a while yet.. If I am to really take an educated guess as to when this relentless barrage of low pressure systems may begin to change to a more significant and longer term degree and move more to our northwest and produce less intense weather fronts and higher pressure have a more significant frequent, larger influence over the UK, then I'd be inclined to think last week of April onwards, BUT like I said above from the 13th-14th April increasing incidences of drier conditions perhaps presenting themselves especially for southern and eastern areas, with unsettled weather more likely for the west/northwest of the UK by this time, for a short time, and that does link to my previous two updates suggesting the possibility of this outlook for this time.. BUT I mean less unsettled overall, with a few more drier days, not likely to overall be settled and dry nationwide for any more than a day or 2 I'm afraid given the lows continued proximity to the west of the UK, but perhaps somewhat better than we've had and will have in the next few days to 10th April if that plays out for mid month onwards. The latter part of April and especially into much of May, (may) generally be more likely to have more frequent occurrences of dry or drier days than we've been use to for some considerable time, partly given the time of year and warmer temps (higher evaporation rates) but I wouldn't be surprised to see frequent quick breakdowns to thundery/wet conditions particularly from our south/southeast, with the potential for these to cause further flooding problems where they do occur and that does seem more likely before it clears up for a few days at a time with warmer temps, indeed this thundery and overall less unsettled synoptic pressure pattern over Northwest Europe and UK is more realistic and in fact could easily remain for the Summer period in its entirety, but if this where to take place as per what I'm suggesting, then we would be more likely to have a thundery/ fairly, though not very or exceptionally unsettled first few weeks to meteorological summer, certainly less unsettled than what we've had upto now, with a shift to a much drier pattern later in the summer with higher pressure being the dominant player. As for temperatures more uncertain, could be much cooler than average or warmer than average tbh, I'd favour a cooler first part to summer in the south especially, then warming up later in summer to above average, perhaps significantly so. Whatever happens this unsettled spell will break at some point obviously, small chance we see a sudden flip to high pressure dominated dry and warm conditions late April onwards but I don't think so, looks like we will have to wait for a few weeks yet for any sustained long lasting high pressure systems over the United Kingdom. For the next 4-7 days though, very wet and that has flagged for a long time on my posts so not worth going into too much detail on this but 30-50mm is likely to accumulate widely, especially parts of England and Wales at first, locally a bit more, and upto 150mm on mountains. Take care.

It's rather clear now that this synoptic possibility quoted above that I deemed slightly lower likelihood around 40% is closer to the mark for the second week of April. Wetter conditions continuing, especially further south and then western UK later on, confidence rating in this being 70% A widespread drying trend from the northwest is less likely now for week 2 of April as a whole, would deem this 10% Upto 10-11th April, but still expect possible further wintry showers/longer spells of wintry precipitation on occasion in north and still it overall looks less wet than south at first, the wetter conditions favour the northwest/west for a time later week 2. Potentially still warmer by mid April in the south as the blocking shifts around slightly with a southwest to northeast elongated trough/areas of low pressure over us and especially to our west/southwest with higher pressure still over close to Greenland, heights also build to our southeast over central Europe but any drier than average spell over the UK and northwest Europe most likely from end of week 2 at the earliest, most likely for far north/ and or the south/southeast of England if it where to happen but the signal only loosely favouring a proper drying trend by then for now, with unsettled weather the main theme before then. Causing potentially large rainfall totals. Take care.

Models are in good agreement over the deep low and the positioning just to our west and that's been the case for days. Anyway.. The outlook quoted above from mine from the 18th and indeed the other updates I've done recently is largely very much still accurate in regards to the general synoptics and weather conditions expected for Easter and then through first week of April.. most unsettled central/southern England with generally drier and slightly colder conditions in the northwest in early April with wintry precipitation with high to our northwest, that is still most likely and that's been a theme in my post updates from the 15th March! although could be some longer spells of rain/snow for Scotland depending on how far north frontal boundaries reach at times, wind direction largely expected to be as my previous posts have mentioned, more northeasterly in north for a time and more variable in south with thunderstorm risk and very wet weather distinctly possible at times here with only very low risk of wintry precipitation on high ground in central/southern UK. In terms of Easter day itself it may actually be mostly dry in some areas with sunny spells bar some heavy showers and areas of cloud in some areas, wintry precipitation in parts of the north. Again an increased chance of drier conditions more widely through second week of April courtesy of higher pressure to our west/northwest moving in, but model output itself for this evolution and signal is rather weak at the moment. So as for confidence of said outcomes.. Confidence rating of a colder and less wet transition in north/northwest and unsettled first week to April overall for many further south, especially in south with temperatures around average/slightly below here 90% Confidence rating of a lengthier drier spell for the UK as a whole through second week of April courtesy of those heights to our northwest well advertised by me in previous updates, with temperatures around average at least at first? 60% Around mid April 13-15th and their are hints we could see a synoptic pattern evolve that results in our first generally very warm spell over England and Wales accompanying a lingering possible drier spell in the south, with a south/southeast wind, this quite typical of how blocking highs can align themselves after a colder spell but any particularly warm spell unlikely to last beyond a few days before either wetter, cooler and windier conditions may move back into southern or western UK or colder air is filtered within an anticyclonic drier pattern over the UK. In fact by then so around and even after mid April a more traditional synoptic pressure pattern for the UK may try to finally take full control over the UK building heights to our south with the Jetstream returning to the usual northerly positioning with variable conditions day to day in north, wettest northwest/drier south but too far out for any more detail on that. A lower chance that southerly tracking lows continue right through the second week to mid April and beyond, continuing the wetter than average theme for southern UK in particular and continuing the exceptionally persistent pattern that has effected the UK since July last year for the most part, worrying if that where the case and would raise questions as to just what this could mean for the rest of Spring, especially as I don't expect the wet weather to continue all the way to mid April and beyond, but the first week of April definitely likely which is problematic in itself, again especially in southern UK at times, but for those wanting late season snowfalls then there is interest in that regard further north if the lesser likely outcome further into April materializes, as well as the expected wintry precipitation at times in north early April mostly in form of showers/ especially high ground. Take care all.

Ecmwf showing the slightly warmer air signal attempting to move into the south though it’s very unsettled as expected so just slightly warmer rain This drier northwest UK likelihood I mentioned also certainly still looking a decent possibility with higher pressure trying to move into northwestern areas as we go through the first week of April but central/southern and southeastern areas still likely to remain more unsettled and even in the north, probably not completely dry atm. The drier signal I still believe is slightly more likely than not through the second week of April more widely atleast for a good few days with more sunshine than we’ve been use to although probably not warm at first… We will see.

Summer8906 I would say any lengthier drier spell from a high coming from north/northwest would be most likely given the overall pattern likely to take place but wouldn’t rule out a ridge from the southwest on occasion but this probaby further into second week of April because even into early April low pressure probably dominating our part of the world. But the hint I mentioned of perhaps more widespread drier weather in the second week of April from yesterdays post being from the exact evolution I’ve just said above let’s hope those slight more lengthy drier conditions do turn out correct for the second week.

Cambrian Really good post Cambrian I was also about to comment on the comments mentioning models only reliable to 5 days or 3 days etc, it’s actually more often than not a rather inaccurate statement otherwise for example I wouldn’t bother with my outlooks past day 3 but I see why they may think that with operational runs (excluding the ensembles) There is genuinely high predictability (if you are knowledgeable in reading and interpreting the model output) at days 6-10. Less reliability between days 11-15 ofcourse but the broad pattern has more often than not been accurately estimated/forecasted that far ahead and enough that you could on average get correct at least 25% of the time, I think the furthest ahead in time “ceiling” of being able to forecast (computer models/ human input) area of local parts of country precise details being around day 8-9. With relatively accurate broadscale hemispheric patterns and what they could entail for our part of the world excluding teleconnections being around 3 weeks time. For anyone interested I highly recommend those Noaa 500mb height anomaly flow charts that are posted every now and then, really useful forecast method I’ve found, even though I’ve only started looking at them as part of my outlooks in the last few weeks, they aren’t 100% accurate but they are accurate way more often than they aren’t but more for a general overview than any specifics in a location of course and that’s for the human to take apart and forecast from it. Easter still looks most likely unsettled in central/ southern UK and a bit colder and less wet further north with snow risk (probably mainly on high ground).

Morning, Just a quick one today, must of been half asleep when I typed this part there are north/northeast winds albeit brief along with colder temperatures, though nothing unusual with a few wintry showers in the north/northeast possible, especially on high ground. The latter frames of the models recently are typical of the extensive northern blocking that is set to build and dominate further, with any brief spells of drier weather most likely in the north/northwest during Easter and indeed early April as said previously, though unsettled is the main theme for the UK as a whole, cool for the time of year out of lengthy sunshine in the north with wintry showers a continued possibility but quite typical for the time of year, very unsettled conditions still more likely to move in from our south/southwest over Easter and beyond for southern and western parts in particular, only a remote chance of any snow here, just potentially again very wet with slow moving fronts, northeast/easterly winds especially in the north a high likelihood, more variable/southwest/southeasterly for the southern part of England, potentially some thunderstorms in the far south. Temperatures around or slightly below average overall in the south is favoured but could see slightly warmer air clipping the east/southeast for the Easter Period, this is a very consistent possibility in my recent posts but precise timeframes being different, but with how unsettled it’s likely to be, it may not be of much benefit with a large amount of cloud possible. Gfs update this morning seems to show the high to our north slightly too east, further west is more likely. Overall it’s a similar outlook to the one I did about a week ago. After first week of April there maybe a slightly increased chance of lengthier drier conditions developing further for the UK although temperatures may not be particularly impressive from neither a cold/warm point of view, but sunshine totals may be somewhat above average. Have a good day.

Addicks Fan 1981 An unsettled/very unsettled end to the month evident on the second chart from noaa, with less unsettled few days in the south then changing to a cyclonic one, heights over Greenland. Air not particularly warm nor cold but northern hill snow risk as is entirely normal for the time of year and ties in with my thoughts since 8th March, though perhaps less wintry aspect than I thought may be the case, would give widespread cold and snow risks no more than 10-20% chance for easter period. Could be dealing with very slow moving fronts parked over UK, as stubborn heights may reside over central/Northern Europe for a time, then that weakening into first week of April with a possible drying trend for a time in the north and northwest, and continued unsettled south/east UK though with winds east/northeast certainly possible for a time.

Well there’s the briefest of north/northeasterlies if you ever see one.. The key change from the quoted post of mine above being the northeasterly that looked a possibility in the third week of March, wont take hold with blocking to our north proving weaker than expected at first, this also means northwestern areas wetter overall than southern areas. In the next few days after a continuation of wetter conditions widely, there is a stronger attempt from high pressure from our southwest to settle things down somewhat over southern UK especially, early next week, but staying more unsettled in the north at times though throughout, nothing exceptional and even here may see some drier days , these drier though not necessarily completely dry conditions may even persist in the south until the 21st or 22nd but like my previous post mentioned, any settled periods rather brief, no more than 3-5 days. Slightly colder and more widespread unsettled conditions return over most or all of the UK in the last week of March, with renewed risk of snow on northern hills atleast at first but may fall to some lower levels in the north by Easter, with an increased northerly and more especially northwesterly a decent likelihood, the risk of snow further south very low now but not to be discounted. Confidence rating of a more drier few days in the south with only occasional small amounts of rain for a few here? 95% Confidence rating that widespread unsettled and colder conditions return to all areas in the last week or so of March and most likely from our northwest rather than north with snow on hills in the north? 80% Confidence rating of a notably warmer than average spell moving north atleast once before end of March, has recently lowered to around 20-30%, there is a small chance of a brief southerly from a cut off low either over Spain/Portugal or just to the west of the UK/Europe around 23-25th and higher pressure over central and Northern Europe for a few days helping to draw very warm air north. In any case unsettled conditions would follow behind it and like I said before, it’s fleeting. Higher pressure is still liable to be close to over Greenland especially late in the month.

The couple of updates I made recently on those northeast winds after mid month over the UK looks “nailed” on.. lol ofcourse not, and no doubt will show a different theme by this afternoon (that won’t alter outlook thoughts in this post though) but the Gfs update this morning highlights the anticipated Greenland heights, very mild/warm air trying to establish from our south and colder conditions trying to establish from our northeast very well past mid month. The synoptics over the UK unlikely to look as extreme or as south shifted in terms of cold air and wintry precipitation as the Gfs is currently showing in reality and my updates recently have eliminated southern UK being in with a chance of wintry precipitation after thinking this could happen just after mid month when I did an update in the first couple days of March, but for northern UK, there is still a reasonable chance of colder (though not exceptionally cold) northeast winds trying to establish past mid month especially post 18th March to put a bit more detail on it, which is my 25th birthday. Due to the very cyclonic/unsettled nature of the weather over southern UK and across the “southern portion” of the Atlantic Ocean that looks to still feature throughout the second half of March and likelihood of high pressure nosing into western and Central Europe on occasion this is what will probably prevent colder than average conditions for the most part in central and especially southern UK, very wet at times still and that’s been highlighted well but with much more of the showery unsettled variety than the winter obviously due to increased convection so rainfall totals may actually vary somewhat from place to place here but could see some big showers developing, these wintry at times in the north, shower risk is though highest in the south with that ever strengthening sunlight especially in cooler upper air temperatures that look to be a feature behind southerly tracking lows that bring very mild air ahead of them either close by or over southern regions of the UK. Thought I’d add a confidence rating to my posts now so you can have an idea how confident a weather event or forecast per day may be to me atleast.. Confidence rating for the post mid month period attempting colder spell development in north UK: 50% so moderate confidence, most of the excess uncertainty coming from how much influence low pressure has in the north,high pressure more often than not largely close by here and that has been the consistent signal but there will be unsettled interludes in the north of the UK too with a continued risk of wintry showers along with dry drier days. Highs over/close to Greenland a 90% chance of that occurring at frequent intervals for the rest of the March. Confidence rating of 75-80% for southern regions seeing the wettest conditions overall and a bit milder with a consistent cyclonic pattern with low pressures moving mainly west to east being anticipated but also on occasion northwest to southeast and south to north through the rest of March bar fleeting high pressure systems that swiftly move across the country settling things down on occasion trying to form blocks elsewhere across our part of the northern hemisphere. Confidence rating of 60% that the synoptic pattern over west Europe will allow a temporary much warmer than average spell of temperatures into France and southern and southeastern England atleast once before the end of March, overall they look to be fleeting. The very end of March the Greenland heights may move and weaken slightly south and in the process bringing much colder upper air temperatures south across the whole of the country and into France, bringing the risk of a brief spell of below average temperatures with a bit of sleet/snow in places potentially including the south. Confidence rating for the very end of March potential colder than average blip nationwide, 30-40% with the main uncertainty being time frame given this is 3 weeks away, but to a lesser extent on exact trajectory of potential brief north/northeast air streams widely and whether they stay east of not around end of March. Have a lovely day

Morning guys, Subtle changes to the quote above here being the low out west more influential just before mid month (not talking about the lows in the next few days) but was highlighted as a possibility in my previous update, when high pressure tries to stay in charge of the UK just before mid month still but low to our west possibly interrupting an attempted developing anticyclonic pattern, spreading possible rain northeast across western and northwestern areas with snow on much higher ground possible. The Gfs seems to want to go with this above quote to a large degree in its latter frames, with the increasing chance of northeast winds into the north with snow showers and the risk of more persistent wintry precipitation once again being possible from advancing weather fronts moving northeast into northern areas from the south, with higher pressures tending to float around to our immediate north/northwest ie more Greenland as said previously, the wettest weather which will probably be all rain still looks to be for southern UK overall, with very mild air trying to establish further north into the UK aswell still likely, on the whole it does still look like often being drier in the north with some pleasant spring sunshine in the latter part of March but some colder nights could be a feature in any absence of winds from our south, potential is still there for southern and southeastern areas to tap into some warmer than average temperatures after mid month in an otherwise cyclonic wet spell, but there will be some drier days even here ofcourse, so yes looks wetter than average for March here but not as much as February. Very low chance <10-15% of widespread very cold northeast winds and wintry showers in south and snow persistent snow showers in north beyond mid month, this would be fairly akin to an update I made I think about a week ago for the same period highlighting that perhaps being more likely, ofcourse risk lowered now. The noaa chart below again shows the outlook anticipated well with heights likely to be prevalent near/over Greenland with any unsettled weather largely over southern UK and especially further south slightly still.

Ecmwf again today a good example of the above, before the Atlantic lows begin to make their move across particularly southern UK post mid month.

Weather vane Should be drier today aswell as tomorrow, except for the far west and southwest of Ireland then here by Thursday too. Anyway, for the mid month period/slightly before, reiterating the outcome and lows over southern areas as expected, clearing away slowly to our south and east with higher pressure likely moving over large parts of the country drying things out for a time once again for the 12th-14th along with slightly colder upper air temperatures of between -4c to -7c or perhaps -8c and this Ecmwf and now Gfs update shows this well, the window of drier weather may be shorter lived around this time frame if some model runs are to be believed, though more likely a case in reality of rain bearing fronts/low pressure system developing at short notice just to the west of the UK perhaps briefly interrupting an otherwise a developing anticyclonic weather pattern over the UK but the Ecmwf pressure pattern forecast should be largely representative of what will happen. With the ECMWF above and Ecmwf AI model below you see those Atlantic low pressure systems lining up again heralding the expected return of wetter conditions beyond mid month for mainly southern half of UK. There may be a delay to the unsettled conditions but not by much more than a day or so past mid month. Drier north with Greenland high hinted past mid month, briefly mentioned that likelihood yesterday, so it’s all very similar to my previous posts. The main takeaway beyond mid month being? Northern UK, increased albeit now lower risk than thought previously of northeast winds trying to establish over parts of the country and increased risk of sleet/snow showers especially on high ground, though unlikely to be anything exceptionally cold, typical spring wintriness to be honest if this does indeed play out, doesn’t rule out more persistent wintry precipitation, this increasingly from advancing north/northeast moving frontal systems from the south and west and whilst trending less settled in the north with winds possibly changing to a milder southerly or southeasterly with time, Again it isn’t likely to be as wet as southern areas of UK, with longer drier spells and higher pressure overall, especially in the far north. But for southern UK frontal systems moving north/northeast is more likely still, with again very mild air trying to establish over the UK, temperatures may trend somewhat above average in sunny spells in the south/southeast but otherwise feeling rather cool in any wet weather even with reasonable upper air temperatures here. Potentially much warmer than average for a time over Western Europe mainly along eastern parts of Western Europe ie eastern Spain and then into eastern France even in an otherwise very wet and unsettled cyclonic pattern overall, with winds likely originating from North Africa and higher pressure traversing northeast from Spain then moving north through Central Europe. Not much to indicate much has changed with my thinking from yesterday. Goodnight

I somewhat agree with @Met4Cast in terms of a flattening out pattern around mid month, and it would to some extent tie in with my thoughts of higher pressure moving south over UK around same time that I’ve mentioned previously which would ofcourse be a precursor to the Atlantic lows return along with milder air and subsequent unsettled weather attempting to cover all areas with some form of “flattening” of the pattern over our part of the Globe, with declining blocking from high latitudes around mid month, though perhaps slightly different thinking with me thereafter in that some form of high pressure may retreat to Greenland also and that would still result in the synoptic likelihood I have mentioned previously with two potential opposite transitions, a colder pattern trying to develop from our northeast but an equally very mild pattern trying to establish further south, note with heat beginning to really build over Northern Africa by this point.. , low pressures are aiming right for southern UK by this point pretty sure of that past mid month, sadly that means further potential rainfall issues, possibly making March somewhat wetter than normal for the south even with the drier few day’s expected around mid month, but not as much as February, northern areas may see a drier than average March with a more wintry period for a time past mid month before a milder and wetter regime returns here too by months end and declining Greenland heights .we’ll see Showing these anomaly charts below because they highlight the north/south split very well, especially synoptically. The unsettled conditions returning to the south only for a short time from 8th anyway, before the drier conditions return for a time here. We’ll have to see if these charts below show a similar or same synoptic pattern as I’ve described for mid month onwards above when the time in question is properly within the charts time scale. But I would say it’s a reasonable bet they will. @Mike Poole the Ecmwf ai model has also been introduced on the charts I use, couple of them I posted yesterday, was a pleasant surprise to see those appear and with the same variables as all the others to look at.

Ecmwf ties quite well synoptically with yesterday’s update, to be honest all models do for the most part. For northern areas yeah easterlies look possible from around 10-11th, but southern and southwest England again winds more southeast to eastsoutheast so cold rain at times with a drier trend afterwards still more likely and slightly milder temps generally here again with those lows over the south/southwest and France, at first keeping the weather largely unsettled during this beginning and middle part of the second week of March before slipping to our south, and relatively cold in the north, a few wintry showers possible at times here, perhaps slightly more than thought yesterday, but entirely normal for the time of year, colder upper air temperatures already in the north very slowly envelops the rest of the UK within a developing anticyclonic weather pattern over the UK towards mid month. So the settled spell for most of the UK still favoured for 12-14th with models showing this clearly now in comparison to yesterday, any potential slightly colder than average 2m temperatures largely look to be the result from some colder nights that look to feature, daytimes may still feel rather pleasant, especially in the north with the odd snow shower here. Slightly beyond mid month unsettled weather does look as thought it previous post yesterday like probably returning for all, temperatures are more uncertain than yesterday I think, due to slight uncertainty with position of the high to our north and over country, I would say weakening heights to our north and over the UK and clash of much colder air moving south or southwest from north/northeast and rather warmer than average air moving up from the south/southwest from over southwestern Europe looks again more likely though with approaching lows to our southwest once again. That heightens snow interest still for north especially with frontal systems moving northeast, so this is rather similar overall to my update previously.

@Weather vane Not likely to see snow here, mostly rain or sleet. Lovely snow pic

Justin1705 The wintry precipitation moving north for later tonight into dawn much more likely I think, would say Gfs is off on one for Sunday, though it was backed by UKMO model a few days ago.. Though the UKv would suggest only snowfall for some high ground areas and rain to lower levels, tbh if its heavy then wouldn't rule out maybe some wintriness to lower levels before dawn, but that isn’t of any excitement to anyone who wants proper settling snow ofcourse, just simply explaining the output But snow falling is certainly lovely to see even with melting. Interesting to see this appear and be in short timescale.

So after 3rd-4th outlook seems to mostly be accurate from previous posts of mine, with the drier and milder spell over southern and eastern areas, extending further to our northwest for a short time, chilly nights though, remaining unsettled in far western parts at first ofcourse, particularly Ireland with south/southeasterly winds during 5th-8th with high pressures to our east and northeast. The only significant change recently is the drier spell likely spreading to western parts by the 7th and more especially hanging on in the north beyond 7th-8th, with low pressure although still expected to move into southern and southwestern areas of England and Wales by around the 8th, it isn’t now likely to move into all areas, with Scotland and Northern Ireland remaining drier, though the fronts may just about reach northern England, Northern Ireland for a time producing hill snow before the precipitation moves south and fizzles out but more than likely further south than over these areas. By the 10-12th.. High pressure ever so slightly more dominant to our north and northeast, and this higher pressure will probably be over Scotland and still to our northeast/north towards mid month with Scotland in particular seeing a continuation of drier weather with just the odd wintry shower,these drier conditions probably effecting Northern Ireland and northern England too by the 11th or 12th with wet and windy weather possible further south, though eventually looks like the low pressure’s influence in the south will lessen somewhat for a day or so and higher pressure taking hold more widely by the 12-14th, this ties in well with my previous thought of a possible hint of nationwide dry weather by mid month. For this same time period as the drier conditions winds are expected to mostly blow from the southeast/eastsoutheast dragging in some milder air into the south, though not necessarily feeling milder in any wet weather. Perhaps some colder upper air temperatures of close to -10c briefly drawn from off the north sea northwestwards into the north during the drier spell here, especially northeast but any snow looks to be small and in the form of isolated showers. A smaller risk ie 20-30%, a colder easterly for all could take place from the 10-11th with more significant snow showers into eastern areas in particular, drier for all at first if this where the case, increased chance of snow in southern parts as precipitation would move up from the south. This is low probability. Just after mid month unsettled conditions are more likely more widely with east/northeast winds a more likely than southwesterly winds, bringing in somewhat colder air down from the northeast. Disturbances liable to form in the flow and travel southwards over northern and especially northeastern parts and although later in March by then, could produce significant lower level snowfalls to northern UK and on high ground in central, southern UK. Much wetter than average in the south increasingly likely once again as lows make another break for southern UK spreading precipitation northeast along with attempts of very mild air, Significant snow accumulations possible on the Scottish mountains in this period.

If we take this morning’s model updates at face value, perhaps more widely drier conditions for a few days than just for southern and eastern areas that I’ve been anticipating? Certainly now a possibility, though most likely a west/east split until around 8th from 3rd/4th with drier weather east and a bit unsettled west/northwest which would be a slightly better outlook than I suggested recently, even with my eye on drier weather probable developments over southern and eastern areas for the same period. So a 3-4day more widespread settled spell and a bit milder? Would say now a 30-40% west/east split ? 40-50% Only southern and southeastern parts of UK being drier and milder? ie what my previous updates have suggested ? 10-20%. The overall synoptic pattern isn’t expected to be any different really overall if we compare to what I’ve been saying, so that by around 10th unsettled conditions are more likely still overall to be nationwide again, with southern regions liable to be wetter than Scotland by then. By mid month northern areas may see more longer spells of dry weather with lows over the south/southwest. This last part is rather similar. Have a good day all hopefully we see some drier conditions more widespread than just southern and southeastern areas for a time after cold unsettled first couple days of March.

Cheshire Freeze I agree, except for the drier* and milder couple of days that are likely after 3rd further south/southeast curtesy of transitory heights moving across areas south of the uk on the dates shown on the charts below.. It’s looking generally very unsettled for many, especially southern UK through first half of March as a whole especially later in the second week of March, Scotland may fare better by around the 10th onwards with blocking highs set to feature to our north as my post yesterday and indeed as your post would also indicate. Gfs 12z certainly the more extreme wetter scenario it has to be said, but I think the pattern it shows is quite accurate going forward, stalling cut off lows in abundance to our southwest.

Looking at this low for tomorrow again quick, those higher totals are a small possibility for far southeast England and far southwest England. Those 10-20mm rainfall totals fairly widespread elsewhere over southern England. Lower chance now though of hill snow for southern Wales from this precipitation, this area is where the northern boundary of the rain will probably be and this applies for the south Midlands and southern part of east Anglia, this was evident from previous post. The rain looks set to linger into Monday now though too in the southeast of England. Confidence of cyclonic and fairly cold conditions for UK for first couple of days of March continues to be high. I’ve quoted the post I made 2 updates ago just above as opposed to the one quoted from the 16th in previous post as although they are both overall the same expected conditions for the UK, the “sluggish” area of low pressures aspect is proving to be more likely than the quicker pace northwesterly flow that I quoted on Thursday. Putting in a bit more detail, we see snow is a possibility for this time period in showers/longer spells of wet weather for northern high ground, especially as little features potentially spin up in an overall “sluggish” series of lows over the UK, slight emphasis that wasn’t picked up on previously is for higher pressure to our east helping the slow down of lows 1st-3rd march. Overall though largely unchanged from above quoted post of mine. As for that more likely than not drier and possible much milder spell afterwards in the south.. I wouldn't say much has changed from this..both scenarios on offer there though could occur back to back.. So beyond 3rd, increasing chance of those drier and milder temps for southern uk temporarily with higher pressure more likely than not making an appearance to our south/southeast, though it’s important to note given the models themselves are undecided, I wouldn’t want to sound certain of this but still confident. 60-75% chance would be a good estimate. Western and more especially northwestern areas of the UK again more likely to remain unsettled at the same time 3rd-8th and possibly less cold, but still with temperatures around average to slightly colder than average in places in the northwest.. high to our southeast or actually now even east probably easing away from the UK by the end of this period, heralding more nationwide unsettled and average/slightly colder than average conditions beyond the drier interlude in the south (if it indeed takes place).. this renewed unsettled spell widely still looking more likely overall post 7th-8th March since my previous post first suggesting the possibility, with synoptics suggestive of slow moving lows in the vicinity of the UK and Western Europe, in addition to add in all of this of further chances of snow on high ground further north, especially for Scotland, though on balance less unsettled and longer drier spells here than over southern/southwestern UK later in the date period just mentioned above, this seems the most probable outcome right now, with very wet weather more likely than average for southern/southwestern areas and indeed Western Europe. If this set up does take place there would be a chance of warmer air clipping eastern and southeastern areas in a southerly flow. Drier nationwide by mid March? Subtle hints this may be the case, though as for temperatures, could go either way with these blocking highs, which look to be a feature still by then. Very mild or slightly colder than average weather both equally as likely at the moment.

Highlighting what I mentioned for this weekends showers being possibly wintry for hills of Wales,southwest England for this weekend. Definitely some risk of those showers being wintry though maybe not the southwest. Okay this does look like going pretty much exactly as expected when yesterday it was under some question just how quick the westerly winds would return during 27-29th, apologies for the temporary slight doubt yesterday, I think those rogue Gfs runs of messy synoptic development for the time period puzzled me but planted some brief doubt in my own thoughts. Seems the track of Sunday’s low pressure system was the reason behind subtle differences in the synoptics for early next week from the Gfs. Centre of low pressure for Sunday moving over far southwest then into channel and France with the high risk of persistent rain into southern counties of England and perhaps Wales, a moderate east/northeast wind making it feel distinctly cold, but feeling more pleasant in sunny spells to the north of the rain and cloud. The above quote looks largely accurate. This above quote does look largely accurate so far. Gfs this morning a textbook example of the brief warmer and drier south increased possibility, with heights building to our south and southeast bringing winds more from the south, maybe not 20c though, but mid to high teens certainly achieve-able, not to say it’s certain but gives even more confidence to the synoptic occurring. We will see how this evolves as the time period gets closer. I still don’t think it will be long lasting though (more than 3 or 4 days) before cooler and unsettled conditions return a few days later. Which would take us to around 8th- 10th March. Have a good day all.