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jordan smith

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  1. Wow that was intense, torrential rain and hail with some brilliant lightning strikes along with some very loud thunder. Aylesbury
  2. We have some mild daytime temperatures to start this week for central and southern parts but turning colder by Thursday for most. We'll see rain heavy at times that is currently effecting the far northwest move southeastwards through the rest of the day, during tonight and will be across central parts of England and Wales tomorrow morning, turning lighter and patchier though some heavy bursts remain possible mainly for parts of Wales before easing throughout the day. Icon.. ? By tomorrow afternoon a wave depression will be moving northeast bringing more rain some of it heavy across northern Ireland, northern England and southern Scotland with hill snow for Scotland too, the trailing cold front from this will only slowly move southwards through tomorrow night heaviest rainfall most likely for northwest England and Wales where 20-40mm may accumulate altogether in places here, this front will be stretching through central parts of England and Wales on Wednesday (my birthday) ? and will probably continue to gradually push south into southern counties of England by Wednesday afternoon/night some of it still may be heavy and perhaps squally in places, some uncertainty with how quickly this clears the south but it probably will linger during Thursday morning likely not clearing away until later in the day, with colder air behind this pushing south some of this rain could turn wintry also wintry showers move south into Scotland. During Friday and into the weekend Winds turn to the east then the southeast by Sunday especially for England and Wales with frost likely for many, it will probably be mostly dry for most over the weekend apart from the risk of a few showers perhaps wintry. ? Gfs.. Into Monday and Tuesday next week it probably remains mainly dry for England and Wales as high pressure will likely be mostly in control but more wet and windy weather may move into northwestern parts of the country.
  3. Later tonight into tomorrow morning rain with some hill snow at first moves into Western Scotland with 30-50mm of rain likely here by the end of the day then an active cold front with strong winds moves eastward across the whole country later tomorrow into Sunday morning with the heaviest rain then likely for parts of Wales and northwestern England where 30-50mm may accumulate in places here too. Gfs.. ? Behind this though Sunday will be showery for many some of these may be accompanied by hail with thunder a possibility also the risk of more organised showery rain in places too. Into the early half of next week it remains very unsettled with another band of rain heavy at times particularly again for Western parts of Scotland and England crossing the country later Monday into Tuesday accompanied by very windy conditions, Then after this band of rain clears further heavy rain is likely for the north during Tuesday particularly western Scotland hill snow also possible perhaps an additional 40-60mm accumulating here all accompanied by very windy conditions with a risk of gales in places. Potentially very mild for England and Wales on Tuesday temperatures possibly reaching 15-16c in places. It remains unsettled for the rest of next week with further rain and strong winds at times also the risk of sleet and snow on hills further north.
  4. Wintry showers already in western areas will continue throughout today although later this afternoon and through this evening an area of rain, sleet and snow likely moves east through Wales and into southern or central areas mainly a wintry mix to lower levels but some snow on higher ground is possible even in these areas, wintry showers continue for northern Ireland, Scotland and Western areas of England and Wales tonight with a few perhaps moving into central parts of England at times but generally becoming drier especially in the east. Icon.. ? Rain, Sleet and snow showers continue tomorrow mainly for northwestern parts especially Scotland and Northern Ireland. Rain probably moves east or northeast across England and Wales on Thursday morning on the northern edge of this a mix of rain, sleet and snow is possible for a time to lower levels with a spell of snow on higher ground but the track, timing and intensity is a little uncertain atm. Arpege.. ? Icon..
  5. Very wet tonight for Wales, Northern England and the Midlands in particular with 10-20mm in a few places more for parts of Wales and northwest England, winds strengthening throughout the next few hours for southwest England and Wales with gusts of 50-60mph developing along parts of the coast of Wales and southern England, wind gusts of 40-50mph developing quite widely across England and Wales towards dawn for inland regions before easing from the west after mid morning along with heaviest rain. Arpege.. ? Tomorrow night we see heavy rain pushing into Ireland and northern Ireland but this is likely to fall as snow mainly on higher ground but perhaps down to lower levels in a few places too, this risk moving into northern England through Monday morning with milder air moving back in this will likely turn back to mostly rain before clearing away from northern Ireland and northern England but a few cm's may accumulate to lower levels with fairly significant accumulations over hills. Through the rest of Monday morning into the afternoon sleet/snow then moves into southern and central Scotland with the risk of snow down to lower levels too here for a time with significant snowfall likely in parts of central Scotland throughout Monday especially on higher ground.. elsewhere for England and Wales rain pushing through early Monday from that warm front then the cold front moves southeast across England and Wales throughout Monday afternoon bringing further rain some of it quite heavy. Arpege precipitation type forecast.. ? The risk of stormy weather for southern Scotland and Northern areas of England has lessened but still the risk of 50-60mph in places here.
  6. The wettest weather tonight for northwest England and parts of western, southwestern Scotland where 40-60mm could accumulate perhaps even more also very wet for parts of Wales and Northern Ireland too.. Arpege.. ? this rain band pushes eastwards through tomorrow, becoming very windy for England and Wales after dawn with wind gusts of 35-45mph locally 50mph developing ahead of and within the cold front bringing the rain. GFS wind gusts.. ? Also a chance of some sleet and snow on the back edge of this for parts of Northern England and north Wales in particular during tomorrow winds will ease behind this front introducing colder air across the country. Upper air temperatures.. A fair few wintry showers move into northwestern parts of the country these most frequent for Scotland. Further heavy rain effects northern Ireland and particularly western Scotland and Northern England during Friday this sinks southwards with wintry showers moving back in. The weekend is looking quite cold and windy a disturbance probably moves through Central England on Saturday night into sunday with hill snow possible but also more heavy rain this may effect southern England too with strong winds accompanying this. A deep area of low pressure will likely develop and move into Scotland or just to the north early next week bringing the potential for a spell of heavy snow for a time for Scotland from an active warm front and also the risk of Severe gales here too. Icon.. ? Next week after Monday it probably turns colder generally with wintry showers around perhaps longer spells of sleet and snow in some places. ?
  7. After some very wet conditions in many areas this weekend with significant flooding in places and After a very windy night where winds gusted 45-55mph widely for central southern areas with the far southeast recording wind gusts close to 70mph Close to the coast all ahead of an intense squall line. it's looking comparatively calmer in the next few days, although before that it will remain very windy for northern areas especially Scotland and in particular the western Isles and the far north of Scotland tonight where gusts could reach 60-70mph for a time as well as a fair few showers effecting many western areas and northern areas with some areas of central, southern and Eastern areas staying mostly dry the showers being wintry on hills in the north more specifically Scotland. GFS.. ? Gfs wind gusts.. Winds ease tomorow for many but it stays quite windy and showers continue. As for the rest of the week windy and wet at times especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland with the risk of gales again later in the week, remaining mostly mild perhaps things becoming cooler during the following week but remaining unsettled but there will be dry days ofcourse especially in central and southern areas. 19th..? 20th.. 21st.. 23rd..
  8. Looks like wintry showers some heavy will continue tonight into tomorrow for parts of northwest England Scotland and northern Ireland in particular with some fairly significant additional accumulations possible on hills although this becomes confined to parts of Scotland later tomorrow as it turns drier elsewhere. ? Gfs..? Risk of snow on the northern edge of a low pressure system moving east or southeastwards during Thursday as I've seen Phil has mentioned above, very windy conditions likely for the southwest and the coast with this for a time while this system weakens as well as heavy rain moving through many areas. Icon.. ? So another storm on the way for next weekend but looks like the centre will stay to the Northwest of the UK while developing rapidly but the frontal system associated with this could be potent. The centre may end up closer to Scotland and Northern Ireland giving some very strong winds here on Saturday too but some uncertainty with this part, the main focus on very strong winds is on England and Wales for Saturday perhaps into sunday too, this all once again from a very strong jetstream perhaps over 200mph. Gfs wind gusts.. ? There could be one or two wave depressions forming along the southern part of storm Dennis which could bring lengthier periods of very strong winds through sunday even once the main frontal system has cleared to the east, this would also bring the risk of quite a lot of rain through Sunday too for central and southern areas. Signs of it turning drier for central and southern parts of the UK at least for early next week but showery conditions probably continue for northern Ireland and Scotland in particular these may be wintry too.
  9. Gust of 60mph recorded at high Wycombe and 64mph at Luton Airport.
  10. Not really just a more organised area of mainly rain showers.
  11. So as many know Sunday looking stormy as storm Ciara rapidly deepens as it approaches the uk. Gfs wind gusts.. Some very heavy rain moving across the country during sunday but the most rain is likely over parts of northwest England, Wales, parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland this may fall as snow on the hills in Scotland the weather front being very squally moving through all areas by Sunday evening. Winds very strong through Saturday night for many from a separate weather system this merges with storm Ciara, winds will strengthen further for many parts during sunday with gusts of wind likely atm to reach 55-70mph widely inland for England and Wales in particular but on hills and along the coasts in particular around 80mph is possible.
  12. Those seemingly less strong winds are just in association with the frontal system of that storm the main core of strongest winds is further to the Northwest on the image. ?
  13. Saturday evening overnight could be very windy for northwestern areas in particular but Stormy weather for many is looking likely for Sunday a powerful jetstream in excess of 200mph will likely develop across the Atlantic helping to really deepen this system as the centre moves close to the north of the country.. Many places likely to see 50-60mph with the potential for 70-80mph in a few places exposed and coastal areas mainly all this accompanied by heavy rain moving across the country this could be sqaully too. Ecmwf.. Gfs.. Upper air temperatures.. Wind gusts.. The wave depression that's modelled by this mornings Gfs and Ecm for Monday/Tuesday is not the storm that they've shown which could bring a stormy midweek period the low pressure system is there but the difference is its shown moving across the Atlantic towards us by Wednesday/Thursday instead of tuesday/Wednesday. Yesterday midday Ecm.. ? This mornings update for same time.. This is the system.. Other models make this wave feature on Monday/Tuesday into the more significant low but uncertainty in this time frame. The potential is there for a storm but its something to keep an eye on but that's all atm. Sunday is one to watch though as it could bring some damage and disruption.
  14. The Gfs hasn't dropped the low at all its in a different position and a different intensity at that time frame compared with previous updates that's all.
  15. The Ecmwf and Gem have also shown stormy conditions for that time frame a couple of times aswell and with a powerful jetstream currently shown and a big contrast in upper air temperatures developing across the Atlantic through the weekend and early next week which I said yesterday ofcourse. Its no suprise that some outputs are showing secondary lows developing rapidly and bringing stormy conditions.
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