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jordan smith

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  1. A change to dry and settled weather is coming as we know from tuesday. Before then we've got one more very wet spell in some places later tomorrow and through Friday. Unusually wet especially for the time of year on high ground across parts of Wales, frequent showers and organised bands of rain moving across, this very heavy at times and prolonged from tomorrow afternoon to Friday evening. Over 100mm will probably fall over the wettest place in Wales by the end of friday with upto 130mm a possibility, 75-90mm more widely on high ground, other areas will get showers and longer spells of rain too throughout the day with some places of northern England, Scotland and possibly northern Ireland getting around 25-50mm. The Arome and Arpege probably very close to the outcome for these areas. Even a little snow on the mountains of Scotland later in the day. Here's the high pressure over most of the uk next week, not completely dry everywhere all the time but for most it will be. Although temperatures will be below average for most, they might rise more widely to average by next weekend.
  2. Having another look at that low pressure system for later this week, coastal gales do continue to look likely, very windy for the south and west inland, winds gusting 50+mph along some coastal parts on Friday, then very showery after the initial frontal band of rain later thursday. Gfs.. Gem.. More low pressure probably moving through on sunday and monday so showery weather continuing with longer spells of rain in a few areas.. Tuesday next week high pressure probably moving in from the southwest into many areas with the weather becoming settled and drier especially in the west and southwest.. further ahead to the end of the working week so uncertainty at the moment, but high pressure more likely than not will remain over atleast some parts of the uk until next weekend at least, with the Gfs as an example. Probably in a position that keeps temperatures average to slightly below average for much of the week but feeling warm enough in sunshine..
  3. Does look like that shift in wettest conditions being more for central and southern areas midweek will likely happen, with a low moving slowly northwards on wednesday night bringing heavy rain into southern parts, then slowly moving north during the day on thursday, locally it could be thundery.. around 25mm probably accumulating for some but possibly as much as 40-60mm in a few places. Gfs.. Rainfall accumulation.. Icon.. low pressure close by during the weekend so a continuation of sunshine and showers some heavy and possibly thundery but a few places may stay dry with sunshine. A longer spell of rain likely moving east into the west and south of England and Wales on saturday and then possibly another one on sunday. Next week showery with some sunshine though longer spells of rain will move across some areas occasionally. Stronger winds and coastal gales may return more widely again during the middle or latter part of next week perhaps more for England and Wales. Temperatures likely similar to this week, winds probably mostly northwesterly and westerly. Middle of next week..
  4. Morning Certainly a good chance of a few thunderstorms in the far south east during the evening time, some strong thunderstorms possibly develop over France. Here's the airmass satellite this morning, you can see the thundery developments to our south.. Could be some more purple colours appearing in some of those thunderstorm cells moving across and out of France this evening, also over Belgium with quite large hail possible in a few of those, a small chance of this in any isolated ones that may manage to get to the far southeast of England this evening, something to keep a close watch on.. no guarantees ofcourse and though unlikely it could all be to our southeast with limited or no thundery activity over the far southeast. The Arome.. Something that was being suggested yesterday by the models and looks like the ukv above shows it too, which @Mr Frost has also shown is a second possibly organised system moving northnortheast out of France during the early hours of tomorrow, heavy showery rain/possible cluster of thunderstorms with suggestions of it coming out of France slightly west of the preceding thunderstorms this evening, still probably moving in a mostly northnortheast direction. either way looks to be frontal rain later in the far east by the morning tomorrow and clears away.
  5. The low pressure system later tonight through the morning will be further south to what I previously thought was likely, but rain moving into the southwest of England in a few hours but the majority of it remaining over the English channel and into northern France, this rain also probably moves along other southern coastal counties further east though during the morning, some cloud around to the north of this with an area of showery rain looking to develop during the morning over north Wales into the Midlands, which could fall as sleet or snow on high ground at first, turning to rain before moving southeast during the early afternoon. Looking at the low pressure system for Saturday again, windy for many and much of the rain heavy for a few hours.. widely 10-20mm accumulating including the far southeast of England, particularly wet for south Wales, still likely to be snow on some high ground of Scotland for a time though possibly the highest ground of Wales and northern England too briefly. The rain continues on sunday morning for some western parts especially Wales where altogether from saturday 50-80mm accumulating locally. Ahead of this wet weather some heavy showers with the chance of thunder possibly developing later on sunday for central and more especially eastern parts.. showers likely for northern Ireland and Scotland some heavy with one or two thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rising on saturday but becoming much warmer for southern and particularly eastern England on sunday, they will probably reach between 17-20c in sunny spells, possibly locally upto 22c. Another look at early next week it will turn cooler again in the east but not as cold as this week. heavy showers around on monday but probably in particular for Scotland and more especially northern Ireland again where there is more likely to be a few thunderstorms bringing hail, strong winds and locally torrential rain. Heavy showers developing quite widely though for other places, except the southeast where there will probably be few. This weather looking likely to continue on tuesday with further heavy showers around but the wettest weather looks to be more for the northwest instead of the south with low pressure from this weekend still around.. perhaps the wettest weather shifting to central and southern areas by wednesday with showers and the possibility of longer spells of rain most likely here. Showers will probably be around for much of the uk aswell though but sunshine at times. The outlook for later next week seems similar more emphasis on lows moving right over the uk, particularly western, central and southern parts of England keeping it unsettled but probably remaining less cold than this week.
  6. Nice looking shower clouds along the grand union canal near broughton buckinghamshire this evening.. A rainbow too..
  7. The Arome on the rainfall in the south this afternoon.. A squally back edge of the rain this evening. Showers behind this tonight some of them heavy and potentially accompanied by strong winds. For tomorrow a distinct line of heavy showers developing and will be slow moving across central areas.. falling as snow on high ground of northern England and north Wales later. Wednesday similar, snow potentially in the showers in northern areas again mostly on high ground but possibly to lower levels in places.. Looking back to the low I mentioned in my previous update for midweek so for thursday and the models differing on the track and to a lesser extent intensity of this, some models bringing it north into more central parts England and Wales and others moving it south of us into France. Rather tricky for them to get the detail correct, But nevertheless most likely outcome is low pressure moving through southern areas of England on thursday morning bringing rain for the south some of it possibly heavy. Temperatures very unusually low for May maximum temperatures of 5-7c in the wet weather in the south. Also depending on the exact development of this low, there is a small chance of some of the rain falling as snow on high ground in a few places on the northern part of this, a more northerly track (which is a possibility) taking precipitation upto central parts of Wales and the Midlands being where the greatest chance of snow on high ground would be. Arpege.. Likely scenario. Icon.. unlikely scenario with the low over France.. Not much change for later this week, low pressure developing quickly another very wet and windy spell on saturday for some especially the south and west of the uk, another spell of snow likely for mostly high ground of Scotland too which may be persistent and heavy, much warmer upper air temperatures (particularly compared with the next few days) moving into the south and east of England.. like others have said the Ecmwf probably closest to the mark this weekend and early next week.. Into early next week probably wettest in the south, though don't take this chart below literally. Likely remaining quite cold in the north next week but probably not as cold as this week.. perhaps a renewed mobile pattern developing later next week with high pressure to the southwest moving closer and drier weather but still wet at times in the south, but wetter in the north with a mainly westerly flow for the uk.. Though could be the case that low pressure systems move over the whole of the uk keeping all areas very unsettled.
  8. For those in the southeast apart from the chance of showers in the next few days, more significant rainfall will return later monday into early tuesday. We've got the showers tomorrow, saturday and sunday for quite a lot of the uk, slow moving and some of them probably very heavy giving a significant amount of rain locally, sleet and snow likely at times in a few of these for high ground in the north, a small chance of one or two thunderstorms again but also a few places staying mostly dry with sunshine. Low pressure moving eastwards on monday, you can see it seperating away from a large low over to the far west then developing quickly as it crosses the uk,the centre most likely will be a little further south than the Gfs is showing, unseasonably windy with an active possibly in places squally weather front moving east on monday afternoon and monday night across England and Wales, the rain probably heavy at times and persistent in some areas with around 50mm likely for the north of England and south of Scotland. A possibility of snow falling on some high ground of southern or central Scotland, small accumulations could happen. The winds very strong in many places especially for the time of year with gales on some coastal areas and hills. Gusts of 40-50mph for most inland but for some coastal areas and on hills 50-60mph is likely and a little more than that possible in the most exposed location. The middle part of next week rather complex with areas of low pressure still likely to be on a southerly track.. the low from monday/tuesday brings colder air south with the potential for snow on higher ground in any systems coming in from the west/southwest for midweek.. more likely for central parts of England and Wales but otherwise more rain likely here and especially for the south.. Icon I think is probably closer to the outcome for the midweek period though the northern limit perhaps the Midlands and southwards. Ecmwf even further south though.. A low pressure system for later next week more likely to develop quite quickly bringing another potentially very wet spell and possibly very windy too at the moment more for the west and south of the uk, temperatures perhaps close to average next weekend in the south but it remains colder than average for the north though.. and the snow chance still likely to continue for Scotland. Looking further ahead Into the following week probably remaining unsettled especially the first half rain at times, more likely for the south though longer drier spells a little more likely compared with next week and the weekend. The weather in the north likely remaining similar. Temperatures average to slightly colder than average most likely aswell for all. A brief big increase in temperatures a possibility for the south and east.
  9. There will be many showers tomorrow developing over Wales, the Midlands, northern England and Scotland bringing an end to a dry few weeks though not everywhere getting these..one or two thunderstorms a possibility. A line of heavy showers developing further south too they could also be thundery. Less than the daytime but these will continue tomorrow night heavy in a few places but mostly dry for east Anglia and southeast England.. heaviest showers and longer spells of rain on wednesday for parts of Wales, southwest,southern England with a higher chance of thunderstorms, these will be slow moving too giving useful and generally needed rain but also potentially causing localized flooding as the water runs off the hard soil. locally altogether totals for parts of England and Wales as much as 15-25mm by the end of wednesday, though some will not have much at all.. Quite likely more general rain develops in the southeast thursday morning which may be heavy. The outlook for next week similar though to add more detail higher pressure continues to be to the northwest of us, low pressure systems likely taking a more southerly track to the south of this high and into the uk from the west/southwest, with one possibly on monday bringing heavy rain and strong winds. After monday winds may be from the north at times in northern areas but generally west/southwesterly winds in central and southern areas, temperatures likely rising compared to the weekend. Longer spells of rain probably more for England and Wales most likely drier for Scotland with the continued chance of snow.
  10. Low pressure to the southwest contributing to the southeasterly today remaining to the south next week moving east over the continent instead of pushing northwards, but another low pressure system moving down from the north during monday and tuesday along with a small area of rain, perhaps a little snow on high ground of Scotland. Generally showery for most of next week with winds mainly northerly/northeasterly, cooler than average. A while out but higher pressure likely remaining to the west of the uk but possibly to the northwest too into next weekend, Ecmwf.. low pressure will probably be close by, keeping showery conditions over much of the country and perhaps a longer spell of rain too, there will be drier spells ofcourse but remaining cooler than average for most and an increased chance of snow on high ground in the north. The following week looks to remain mostly unsettled, more significant rain a possibility with temperatures likely rising.
  11. Some hill snow too by the looks of it if that low where to happen as shown, the end of the Gfs update although likely to change ofcourse, does offer something warmer returning just as general cluster has noted.
  12. I just wanted to wait until the Gfs updated this evening so I wouldn't have to edit this to include it.. Even though there has been a fair amount of model output changes over the last 24-48 hours.. not much I think has changed with the outlook since.. high pressure will move into much of the country by wednesday next week bringing dry weather back to Scotland and northern Ireland, although now the possibility of a few showers developing for England and Wales on Tuesday before it becomes mostly dry for all here. That high pressure still more likely to be positioned just to our east and northeast later next week. Winds probably turn southeasterly for a time for many.. It will probably turn warmer for most, more particularly the west and south of England with temperatures likely reaching upto the high teens for some although perhaps cooler by the end of the weekend. Thursday Saturday The Gem has been showing a different placement of high pressure for friday-sunday next week but now it's moving back closer to the Gfs.. low pressure still could move close to the south or southwest too later next week with more model output showing the chance now, bringing the possibility of slow moving rain and showers into the south and southwest by the weekend, but for central, northern and eastern areas again it will probably remain dry. Here's the Icon and Ukmo with that very similar scenario with a low fairly close to the south with rain in the far southwest.. Icon.. Ukmo.. Though that rain may end up being kept away to the southwest.. keeping all areas mostly dry. The Ecmwf is showing a different placement of the high at the end of the week with cooler conditions and the high just to our north then northwest next weekend with it a little unsettled but does show the rain chance in the south and southwest later next week. A quick look at the following week and I think it's more likely that it turns unsettled for the southern part of the uk aswell as cooler with rain likely at times some possiblly slow moving, with higher pressure looking likely at the moment to be positioned just to our north with the influence extending over northern areas of the uk. This Gfs evening output shows this well. The exact synoptics may be different once we get to this week to some extent but i think this may be quite close to the actual outcome in this case. Scotland and northern Ireland may remain mostly dry and settled during the first half of that week, temperatures possiblly close to average in the north but in any wet weather further south then temperatures may be a few degrees below average but with any sunshine here in this pattern temperatures not too far from average.
  13. A mostly dry outlook for the whole country up until the weekend where low pressure to the west may bring some rain into western and northwestern areas atleast so Scotland northern Ireland and parts of Wales before weakening.. even though the projected weather can change a lot a week away during early next week high pressure will move in from the west into many areas and by midweek it is likely to be over most or all of the country. high pressure likely to continue to be across much of the country later on next week but probably at the moment moving just to our east northeast. So it should stay dry for most especially at the moment for the east and north, this pattern would possibly allow warmer air to eventually move into parts of the country from the south or southeast.. low pressure could move close to or up in to most likely the south or southwest of England with rain and showers which would be slow moving with this more likely pattern, giving the chance of significant rain for some here but plenty of dry and sunny weather with occasional cloudier spells before then if it does happen. Was waiting on the Gem and Ecmwf midday update to appear on the site it has just updated and similar to their previous update on things for next week.. Gem.. Ecmwf..
  14. Hi Does look like any warm up will be gradual during the next 7-10 days at least with a cool wind later in the week from the east/southeast for England and Wales keeping temperatures lower than normal for some and average for others, instead of a southerly that looked like a possibility for the south a couple of days ago.. plenty of sunshine throughout though ofcourse and cold nights, the chance of some areas of cloud drifting into the northwest later and possibly the south later in the week too depending on the highs position. Ukmo.. Gfs..
  15. Morning Snow showers some heavy will be frequent for northern England this afternoon and a local covering is possible particularly if they become more organised and merge. Rain sleet and snow showers in areas south of here, although for most that do get any snow it will be a case of it falling but not settling and accumulating with sunshine in between them. An area of rain separated from a low to the northwest will move into parts of Wales then most likely into western and then into central or southern parts of England later tonight into tomorrow morning. It is a fairly small feature and most of the precipitation will probably be light though a chance some of it could be heavy, particularly for Wales where on high ground there could be 2-5cm. A few other places may have a light covering of snow including to lower levels from this. Any that remains during tomorrow morning turning mostly to rain, weakening and clearing away by the afternoon though possibly a lot of cloud left over for these areas with showers in the southwest.. Temperatures now more likely remaining close to average for most from tuesday with high pressure over the whole country until thursday where it may drift slightly east, mostly dry for many including Scotland and northern Ireland although upto wednesday a few showers is a possibility in some places which is a slight change from previous updates. High pressure probably over much of the country into saturday the exception possibly being the northwest. Most probably remaining dry, a fair amount of sunshine but some areas may have occasional cloudier spells depending on the exact wind direction.. Gfs..
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