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jordan smith

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    Cold and snow, thunderstorms, heavy rain and windstorms.

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  1. For the short term Saturday looking very wet indeed for most of England and Wales with rain persisting for much of the day especially for southwest England and Wales with sunshine and showers following into the southeast later in the afternoon. Gfs for 6am Saturday.. 12pm.. 6pm.. Will give another update tomorrow morning.
  2. I was referring to the wind coming directly from the north. Not about the colder air it would bring. In any case on this particular Ecm update the cold air doesn't last too long 2 days or so before the milder air begins to come back so it is a pretty short period.
  3. I seem to be on here too much as I know what all the terms are The Euro slug is one of the classic terms I've heard alot of today. Anyway the Gem and Gfs this evening still in rather similar agreement upto day 10 with bands of rain sweeping across the country one after the other really clocking up the rainfall totals once again.. They both show a somewhat brief northerly around day 10 before the high pressure system out West topples over the uk quickly cutting it off.. Liable to change as its a while out.. Gem for Tuesday.. Saturday 30th.. Sunday 1st December.. Gem rainfall totals for the next 10 days below.. Here's the Gfs.. GFS rainfall accumulation for the next 10 day's very similar to the previous rainfall accumulation updates I've posted today.
  4. I was asking on behalf of others. I knew what it mean't myself.
  5. Yeah I know, but for other's who won't necessarily know what these abbreviations of names mean.
  6. May be worth explaining what you mean by the word sciceland as some users won't know what that two word combination is.
  7. Arpege's view on the next 3 days weather.. In summary Some drier spells but rain at times milder too.
  8. Those swingometers are needed..Although they'll malfunction at this rate.
  9. Well that definitely doesn't apply to you @knocker
  10. @Mapantz apologies for quoting you on the help and support page was accidental the problem I was about to address was sorted. Anyway a very dull day here still feels cold with a stronger breeze..
  11. Morning everyone. So the GFS Ecm and Gem are all still showing unsettled conditions for atleast a week although details are different as you would expect the snapshots below.. Gem.. 25th.. 27th.. 29th.. GFS.. 24th.. 25th.. 27th.. 29th.. 1st December.. Unsettled and quite mild for the most part with high pressure continuing to influence close to Greenland keeping areas of low pressure on a more southerly track with a northerly wind shown for the latter stages of the Gfs and Gem. A bit more detail using the Gfs.. Spells of rain pushing northeast through the latter stages of today and into tonight fairly heavy in a few places but clearing north to leave drier conditions for the beginning of tomorrow excluding the southwest of England and Wales also milder than recent nights with winds blowing from the south or south east.. Rain becomes persistent for the south west tomorrow as well as parts of wales as the frontal system pivots.. Tomorrow night into much of Saturday a spell of heavy rain pushes more widely across the UK clearing southern areas later in the day. Sunday is looking mostly dry for most but a small area of rain over central areas for a time according to this Gfs update with some rain continuing for Scotland elsewhere some sunshine. Sunday/Monday more heavy rain pushes into the west during Sunday night.. This then pushes eastward it may take longer to clear for central and Eastern parts until later on Monday. Winds westerly. The centre of low pressure responsible for the rain on Monday then drifts through Scotland during Monday night into early Tuesday morning giving spells of rain to northern England but also rather windy for southern areas for a time.. Tuesday night into Wednesday heavy rain pushing northeast for most areas.. Then another low pressure system is shown for Friday 29th night into Saturday 30th morning giving strong winds and heavy rain.. Remember this is just a snapshot details will change as you'd expect but a very unsettled week next week is on the cards with a lengthy period of rain again. An animation of the weather for the next 10 days.. Here's an animation of the 10 day accumulated rainfall from this latest GFS.. Significant rainfall for Western areas with over 100mm for some much drier in comparison for east anglia and the southeast though. The area of the most rain will likely change but here is what it's showing atm.. GFS ensembles continuing to show a lot of scatter with upper air temperatures towards the end of the update indicating continued uncertainty. A lot of rainfall still shown for next week and perhaps beyond..
  12. For the more reliable time frame here's The Gem 10 day rainfall accumulation chart it shows a less wet 10 day outlook for the north compared to its earlier update still some rain but with the south and west being particularly wet. Here's an animation of the weather for the following 10 days from the Gfs.. A particularly nasty low pressure system shown for Thursday 28th/Friday 29th too bringing heavy rain to the far south perhaps very strong winds too dependent on track ofcourse. Uncertainty with that system as expected but a very windy spell seems likely at some point next week. Now an Animation for rainfall accumulations out to day 10 from the Gfs.. Wettest for the south and west with over 80mm shown for some spots but less wet further north and east.
  13. The ensemble highlights well the uncertainty for the end of the month as it will do at this range.. Best not to draw any conclusions just yet especially if you base an outlook off the operational Gfs. But atm it looks like an unsettled outlook for the next week or so with temperatures close to or slightly above average..
  14. Looks like the red ensemble member I mentioned earlier GFS ensembles below and the operational is all over the place with upper air temperatures and precipitation definitely no trend in the longer range from looking at that.
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