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jordan smith

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    Cold and snow and heavy rain/windstorms.

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  1. jordan smith

    #NameOurStorms: is it a good idea?

    Storms are generally getting named far too easily naming should only be given to the most intense ones that cross the UK take storm *david* in January this year for an example that was an actual storm that should of been named but it wasn't then was adopted the name that France gave it but it was a difficult one to forecast.. it was more severe than most if not all of the storms from last winter such as the damp squib Aileen this is ofcourse my view so please respect that.
  2. jordan smith

    Storm Diana - 27th & 28th

    Couldn't agree more the track is also slightly uncertain too so may be slightly further east than shown.
  3. jordan smith

    9th November Possible Storm

    Storms use to be named purely based on wind but now other factors are taken into account but if there is just likely to be heavy rain but no stormy winds then it probably won't be named but if it's accompanying severe winds then it would probably be named that's how it seems to work but nevertheless it's very inconsistent I agree.
  4. Calm start then turning stormy later I personally think this should be named based on wind strengths although not unusual will effect a large area at a busy time plus combined effects of heavy persistent rain making for some bad driving conditions a couple charts to show the weather this evening.. Wind gusts are shown to exceed 60mph through the English Channel just coming a bit inland into the south of uk with gusts widely 50 to 55mph some locations inland will no doubt exceed 60mph briefly before the rain clears, all in all a stormy evening in store not to mention more flooding likely for Northern Ireland.
  5. Definitely seems like a much more unsettled week than we've been use to for a long time with the Atlantic low pressure systems taking turns to try and push that block further east but only very slowly.. plenty of rain for western parts.. GFS.. GFS ECMWF and GEM all going for a rather deep low on Friday with an active frontal system pushing swiftly from the West giving a spell of gales and heavy rain.
  6. Perhaps elaborate on that as some on here won't have an idea what them charts mean.
  7. Pretty impressive agreement at around 5 days out for Friday's deep low pressure system potentially containing the remnants of tropic storm Oscar here's the charts.. Gfs. Ecmwf. Gem. UKMO
  8. jordan smith

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    I totally agree with this.
  9. jordan smith

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    That would be very welcome by me!
  10. jordan smith

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    Rain has eased across England this evening I recieved 30mm but another pulse of rain moves north into the south during the early hours giving quite a wet morning tomorrow with an additional 10 to 20mm in a few places through central/southern England before fizzling out during the afternoon. Arpege.. DWD Icon..
  11. jordan smith

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    Morning, a very wet start to today across many central southern areas by mid - morning the models show particularly heavy rain through central parts denoted by the yellow shading.. Arome.. Arpege.. This persisting all day for some with as much as 40 to 60mm being progged in a few locations. easing for a time this evening. before a renewed burst of heavy rain pushes northwards during tonight into tomorrow morning then fizzling out in the afternoon.
  12. Yes definitely looking very wet some places particularly the central part getting potentially over 40mm of rain by the time the rains all cleared. But atleast it’s much drier next week
  13. jordan smith

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    Well it seems like it’s the turn of central southern and eastern England tomorrow to experience some very wet weather although not anywhere near as bad as it has so far been in the west. This is what the dwd is showing accumulation wise by the time the rain’s cleared through by Monday.. A line roughly though Swindon to Lincolnshire getting around 30 to 50mm locally more? The sheer persistence is of some note this is the arpege below from 6am tomorrow morning.. Rain is shown to be falling across wales which of course don’t need It along with the southwest just fringing into southern parts then fast forward to 2am Monday morning and this is the position.. it’s still raining if the arpege is right then many places through central southern and southeastern England would see potentially 12 -18 hours of heavy rain which could lead to large accumulations though not expected to bring any real flooding problems as these areas Have been pretty dry for a while. so potentially welcome rain albeit a lot of for southern and eastern parts as for wales and SouthWest England? Definitely not welcome ofcourse this is just one model output details can and will change I will update later today.
  14. jordan smith

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    How often have we seen that pattern haha oh well hopefully something will crop up.
  15. jordan smith

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn 2018

    I’m personally getting fed up with this mostly settled warm weather hopefully something more definitively seasonal in the next couple of weeks