Matty88

Heavy rain here still near Cambs, no sign of any wintry mix as yet but I suspect once that lobe of heavier PPN filters down from lincs we may start seeing some wet flakes mixed in. This afternoon is looking potentially interesting... if the transition goes well.

Still touch and go I'd say... some (but not all) models on board for producing some snow tomorrow. And GFS having none of it for the Saturday snow potential at this stage. Could go either way?

Indeed... I've seen it many times before too, the great 'rise' then 'fall' haha. I think you'll agree though the SSW ''seems'' to be having an effect on the charts though, just as it did in 2018, but I do for sure not want to curse it ! It is just as likely to flip to mild. What gets my gripe is people (mostly newbies) on the model thread posting things like 'booom ' along with a precip forecast chart at 300hrs funny to watch.

Great OOz run this morning from 222 Hrs that contains similar notes to the 'Beast' of 2018. I am a pessimist with charts but they do seem to be slowly but surely 'easing' the Siberian air further and further West, I hope that trend continues as for the like of us in the east and with a North Easterly that would be a great set-up. Of course, still time for it to all go horribly wrong! There is definitely an element of snow chance for us Thursday-Friday with the boundary front potentially being pushed back but we need this to be pushed a bit further west at the moment, seems possible in my eyes but will be a fine balance thing, at least something to keep an eye on in the short term! One things for sure.... the cold setting up in the continent has got some 'grunt' to it this year.

A rather bitter taste in the mouth this morning as the front that was sinking south we/I have been hoping for is due to completely miss impacting any of us in EA/The South East ... so after more than a week of cold drab and some drizzle, our snow chances for this cold phase at least look well and truly gone now. I guess there's a chance once the wind swings back NE/Easterly we could get the odd sleet shower overnight - knowing our luck here all this will do is raise the temps again and keep us lot above freezing whilst the rest of the snow plains in the UK get down into -10 territory - arrghhh!!! Annoying. That's just weather for you!!! Just wasn't meant to be. A very frustrating phase of weather it has to be said. Eyes now turning to other potentials...

Not sure if this has already been discussed yet but there is always a really annoying reference of the season that's gets repeated over and over and eventually gets on everyone's gripe.... in 2019 it was 'Downwelling', this season it has to be 'wintry impacts'..... discuss lol

It's turned wet here in Ely but no snow to report, just spots of rain unfortunetely. Looks like further inland and with elevation it is snow though... maybe with any heavier PPN?

Well we had a patchy frost here in Ely this morning despite the wind ! Still looks to me like Thursday into Friday is our (EA) best chance of seeing any snow from the South bound front but nothing too significant - our best hopes are with this for now. As my earlier thoughts - the streamers and showers have so far led to nothing! It also looks as though tonight's showers may be more wintry in nature so could produce some sprinklings here and there inland... one to watch.

Indeed... but we all need to remember that although an SSW spices things up it's not a guarantee for cold and snow !!! Anyway, good times for model watchers.

Absolutely - we need an organised front to come in on Friday to give us in EA/SE one last shout of snow before it 'flattens' (temporarily)... still possible. Until then I am doubtful the showers or streamers will lead to anything but very isolated snowfalls.. but mostly rain and sleet I suspect. If the diving low gets phased out on Friday I will be disappointed but at least there is plenty to potentially look out for with the impending SSW... I stress 'potentially' !!

Haha no worries... I'd probably be saying the same if I was in Southend! I think you're in for a good shout there for some decent showers. I've been hoping for something organised to pop up but that med low slowly got phased out I've learnt in the past never to rely on streamers or showers off the north sea from an Easterly in my neck of the woods! Even the beast in 2018 gave us in Cambs barely a sprinkle really... I'm hoping that Icelandic low can drop next Friday/Saturday but that seems to be getting phased out too... may need to wait a bit longer here I think for a nice cold low or front to show up!! Should be something by next Weekend I feel...

I agree with the cold week bit but definitely not the snow opportunities galore bit - what's that based on?! They will be there but few and far between, esp for me nestled in East Cambridgeshire! No streamers for me... need Northerly/North Easterly for that for them to get down the wash. I cannot see any solid cases for snow here over the next 5 days - likely none at all, maybe the odd sleet shower. Never the less it's interesting times model watching at present! Although I hope the 12z run can be put in the bin!!!

So as I suspected the models were gradually pushing the precipitation potential back and back and we've been unlucky so far in EA and the SE! However... there is promise on the horizon, an easterly or North Easterly is a step in the right direction and it will most certainly be cold enough in the coming days for the showers to be wintry (not just of rain). Relief. The potential will be there for some heavy snow showers. Interesting watching on the GFS 12z too... it's been mentioned recently that the jet is still showing no signs of a comeback in the Atlantic and the charts have been finding that hard to grasp, in essence - IMO - it means there is more chance of the charts flipping back to cold (as the 12z is doing)... so more twists and turns to come! Good times for model watchers.

Another great model run for the longer term but I fear us in EA may well have to contend with rain showers from Wednesday onwards if the charts are to be believed - but before then it looks like we’ll get at least a few wintry showers! Still a close run thing though but it’s best to keep expectations low for now...

I would discard that beeb forecast for now... Latest flip isn’t great news for snow lovers in EA tomorrow I fear but I’m liking the look of convective developments behind that especially if we can line up a north easterly flow which would be great for my location. Fascinating chart watching at the moment and no doubt more of us will be seeing snow in the next 7 days... Fun times ahead!

the ‘storm’ really is something - can we count depths in number of flakes rather than cm or inches people? See my car bonnet ... too lazy to count

Merry (white) Christmas from Ely !!! We have a sprinkling of snow

I'm with others the HP is going to topple and we're looking at a chilly but quiet xmas period ... which isn't all bad! It's quite funny seeing some post on the forum just because the precip chart is showing some potential wintry precipitation amongt the showers (which will be few and far between) . People really aren't used to 'normal' winter weather anymore, they see a snow flake forecast and think we're entering a new ice age

0z run ... oh deary deary me, yet another warm tumble dryer run! Withdraw any bets for a white xmas - too risky!!!!

Is it me or is the signal for HP re-affirming itself diminishing? It seems it's getting pushed further back with each run. We need that ridge to shake things up.... high probability of that happening, but until then its just drab viewing. Lets all pray ...!! So close yet so far....

From my point of view I'd love to moan but the situation this year is so much better at present... it annoys me when people say 'but Europe is so warm at the moment', is it? Much of EE is sat under a high pressure which appears to be mildish on the GFS screen, but beneath it - slap bang under it, you are talking daytime surface cold of -4 to -8 and freezing conditions across Russia, much different to how it has been this last few years. All is not what it seems... and the Atlantic isn't going to start lobbing mild lows across the continent anytime soon with that in place and blasting the UK in the process. This is why I think the charts are struggling at the moment. Won't mean necessarily we'll get cold here in the UK but the ingredients are there this year at least... it's a better prospective at present!! Rant over

Lets face it - it's been one of those 'no-one could see it coming' rare scenarios for sea level counties in EA... I'm honestly quite shocked we've got snow reports coming in from right on the coast in Suffolk to Lincolnshire. And not just a slushy deposit either - genuine laying snow. This is why we love the weather!!

Nope - wrong! 2cm of Snow in Ely this morning which is at sea level... it's not just falling on high ground, not at all. A lovely fluffy surprise for quite a few around here this morning!

There are quite a few snowfall / snow depth charts being touted around this forum that require an extremely large pinch of salt!!! Lets not fall into that trap. Never the less it will be nice to see some wet snow tomorrow which is a possibility can't complain!

You'd be a fool to write this forecast off and it does seem concerning... but as they say, in weather, nothing is certain ! That's the beauty of it That said... I'd rather a front loaded winter than a back loaded one for sure!