Matty88

Anyone else find it ironic that we get deep decent cold when all the background say no to cold, and when the background signals predict cold (ie Mid-Late Dec) it all goes flat. The less said about that and the state of long term forecasting the better !!

I think more to the point its the position of the jet - not the strength, that will be causing a wobbly or two. South shifted yes, potentially a disrupted path which has even a small chance of firing up heights and leading to an easterly. The models feel to me like they are back-tracking on shifting the European cold block and this may even grow as we head into next week. On the flip side - yes it may all collapse and mild air intrusion wipes out the cold. Interesting times ahead and model watching!

Battleground scenario setting up for early next week which is exactly as some had been predicting - the block is looking increasingly stubborn to shift in the models which is exactly as some on here had mentioned prior. It feels more like the initial lows are going to be sliders which have the potential to give some a real pasting. So yes the milder air is knocking - however - ironically Sunday/Monday and Tuesday could be the highlight of this cold spell for some? Not to be dismissed. Going forward from this ensembles highlight milder conditions but by no means a blow torch, I suspect the jet will continue to remain fairly South Shifts meaning changeable average conditions for a time rather than a complete Mild Avalanche. Beyond that signals suggest more blocking into mid-late Dec?

I showed optimism in early November stating what I felt was the obvious that after 3 months of westerlies and record LP's something was bound to change only to be shot down in flames at the time! It clearly wasn't misplaced optimism !! On a serious note I still believe Nothern Hem blocking HP's will be causing forecasters a few headaches and upsets running through the rest of December into the New Year... watch this space

I'm sure there will be some surprises over the coming week or so - including streamers, probably nothing too vast but enough to give some surprise coverings here and there. Fingers crossed the wash can deliver a few overnight snow flurries to my neck of the woods!! Either way we are looking cold and frosty for a good week now, and the breakdown of cold is not yet certain. There is still a small chance something more potent could set-up next week if the block finds a way of holding.

The Met-Office has and will be flip-flopping on the upcoming cold set-up more than a fish does out of water - you wait till they change their tone in the next update. Nearly all models (including theirs) have been struggling with the up-coming pattern change. Looks almost certain like they will have to row back on the start of December being a mild westerly theme. There's still much we and they do not yet know about our atmosphere and the triggers for pattern changes. Common sense does seem to play part of it - ie after 2 months of Westerlies and LP's was this honestly going to carry on and on? HP was overdue to make an appearance. The atmosphere has a freakish knack of balancing itself.

To be honest I've noticed ALL model platforms tend to struggle with major pattern flips, it was obvious a few weeks ago nearly every model was intent on the continuation of barreling LP's in and a mobile set-up in a ''join the club'' fashion - however this set-up had become the norm for a number of weeks/month, really we should have anticipated a major flip at some point despite the background signals - a HP interlude was overdue and here it is. The above said - this set-up for cold is far from nailed, but what is clear is there is a major pattern flip on the cards - at least in the medium turn. From recollection a cold NW Europe will most definitely influence our weather and the ensuing model battle ie cold/mild, I suspect in this instance cold will end up winning out for a time. Great model watching!

Honestly can’t say it’s been a particularly warm Autumn - the stats all say it’s been milder than average overall but it’s felt pretty damn chilly under all the rain here despite the lack of frosts. The stats can shout mild all they like - the feels like temperature hasn’t been as toasty The jet has been quite far south though… certainly ain’t been no heatwave!!!!

An excellent response to my earlier post by Catacol highlighting the many potential influences, so often not considered by merely looking at the key drivers and main models. I know not all will agree with my view which goes against the grain to what many have posted but I sincerely believe we are well overdue a HP phase and this ‘’could’’ cause an upset in the coming weeks and going on into December. Currently though it is still all to play for. Interesting times - that’s why we all love it I suppose! all eyes on how the ECM and GFS come out of this!!!!

Despite what a number of the more senior posters will tell you in the model output thread, and yes I get that the background signals, El Nino etc etc all point towards a more mobile Westerly based pattern, however, in the bigger picture the weather tends to always find a way of balancing itself out - and after a prolonged period of a barrage of LP's I have had the feeling for some time that HP will find a way in - somehow - and the models DO seem to gradually paint this picture, not many can deny this. You look at most of the ensemble members and charts and the theme is HP will be having an influence in some form or another, and whilst doing so ALSO potentially disrupting the direction of travel of the jet. The more potent PV may well play in favour in this scenerio ie sending a charge/charges of Polar air our way and into NW Europe. So some interesting ingredients on the table going into December currently... those are my thoughts anyway!

Found it a bit odd how the Meto were shouting from the rooftops about Thunderstorms this morning - in reality its just been a big blob of rain. Just seemed odd for this time of year? And so it proved... dull rain the order of the day! Hmmm... Back from my summer hibernation btw ready for the winter fun and games

A decent enough covering in Ely for a time last night (probably around 3-4cm) but by morning has melted away on any pavements. Currently spitting with rain/sleet. Yesterday had to endure a day of wet snizzle/sleet which was frustrating but to be expected this time of year! It says a lot though that a temp splatttering of 3-4cm which has mostly melted by morning in Ely has been the highlight of the winter snow wise... lol roll on spring

Just want to point out that the none event isn't just restricted to SE London.... probably most of England !! Nice to see some flakes falling but it's all a damp squib with a mild air attack on the horizon in time for tomorrow AM - therefore any snow that falls this evening will rapidly turn to slush tomorrow. Exception MAY be Saturday AM as the LP swings away and draws in the cold/snow, could produce a better pasting than any of todays/tomorrows mess.

Jesus - BBC's main story is currently 'Snow and Ice' live.... you click the link and it's mostly pictures of snow from the Glens of Scotland and a group of cold water swimmers in the North Sea ! All this over what is effectively a dull wet day with outbreaks of sleet !! What have we become as a nation.. And tonight well yes there could be some snow for the midlands but look at those uppers by 9am all the way up to the Midlands, any snow that falls is going to turn into slush and melt from the moment people wake up lol Damp squib anyone?!

Not just northerlies - certain PV splits/SSW's also do not mean we will plunged into biblical cold (especially in March) - as this weeks 3-4 day affair clearly points out. As history would tell you (if any of the crazed SSW fans on here cared to look) the gathering of warmth further South this time of year means any cold attack is at big risk of repel - especially a northerly (nothing new) and is usually a short lived affair - the only thing that could have changed that is a BFTE, that's the only set-up that stands a chance of longevity this time of year. Cold diving South during March onwards only tends to stoke up LP's and ultimately southerly attack. So this was always going to be a touch and go event / cold snap from the outset, with a risk of some transient/short lived snow. For some that's better than nothing!! Anticipate another 1 or 2 cold snaps until winters end this year (as is usually the case) but otherwise roll on spring..... can't wait for the first warm day!

Who else thinks all this talk of 'downwelling' and SSW propogation is getting a bit tiresome ... yes it could yield an easterly eventually but who really wants that at the onset of spring?!? I am craving warm weather and sun now Sadly Dec/Jan/Feb so far have not yielded more than a dusting for me but some very harsh frosts and even ice skating in the fens... it's felt a chilly ''vintage'' style winter in any case.

In the short/medium term the North Atlantic ridging could yeild some surprises especially if lows can slide down it's eastern flank and impact us on the colder side - a delicate scenerio but could bear fruit. The last few runs in particular are trending that way. This could be no bad thing if it falls right? Something to watch I do however feel the PV beast firing out of Canada will make any BFTE unlikely, at least until late Feb/March. And let's face it most of us will probably be craving something a bit warmer/spring like by then!! Could always be worse...

Personally - the upcoming battleground scenerio with big lows trying to come in makes me more excited than a ''boring'' HP based block with wintry showers on coasts! Each to their own though. All in all lets not forget there is forcing of Northerlies at play due to persistance f Greenland Heights - the Northerlies want to win out but so far can't. So even though the charts are showing milder runs, if it flips in our favour we could end up slap bang in the middle of the battleground and be in for an incredibly snowy fortnight ahead. Somewhere inbetween would still carry snow risks inbetween the thaws. My money is on something inbetween? Yes we aren't looking at straight northerlies (or Easterlies) *yet*- but the battleground lows may mean things are even better than that in terms of snowfall if things sit right. After the last spell don't forget the GFS had lows barrolling through long before the cold spell eventually finished. I'm sure we will all still have something to moan about though!! Hehe

I have to say at present my money is on GFS picking up the correct signals for the Greenland Block/heights - I could lose of course, but the trends/arctic setup seem in favour. I believe the ECM / Met will follow suit as time goes on. The last few runs proves the GFS cold run was not a rogue and there is appetite at present. Could be wrong though! Watching the next few runs with interest....

So recently the Gov. declared they weren't happy with the Met-office for underestimating the December Cold... which I believe, although they did warn of some colder than average conditions. However the metoffice stipulated they anticipated a mild January. So... forgivable perhaps? But what happens if January turns into a deep freeze? That could be very interesting... not least for the fall out with the met-office, but also black outs and gas shortages due to lack of warning and prep. (very likely) The scary thing is - the over-riding pattern (so far) has been the Greenland Block and this looks set to continue, which is famed for plunging us into severe cold spells. So... the odds are dare I say 'in favour' for further freeze ups. Interesting times ahead I reckon..... heads (and Gov's) will roll if we end up with blackouts!

The latest runs seem to be slowly falling into line with the more Zonal/Westerly flow - a product of the forthcoming strong jet. It seems it would be tricky for further prolonged cold after Sunday but there is appetite in the models for average conditions/cold shots, and I suspect this will be the theme going into January, with still a potential for snow events. And it's looking very unsettled. There are some signals starting to show for further Blocking European Heights down the line which may eventually be condusive for a continental flow/Easterly in January sometime I would have thought... one to watch? No doubts though that this cold spell has done the business with ground/soil and SST's so we are fully prepped ready for the next shot of cold! Plenty to be positive about

Some very positive adjustmentments on the GFS this morning - it's not so much a surprise that the mild Southerlys were going to come charging through though was it? I suspect some further Southward adjustments and prospect of some 'Wedging', as can be seen? With these minor adjustments there is also the real possibility of a continuation of cold... as some of the other experienced posters on here have been saying, with heights building back over Scandi. Either way, it feels to me that any transition will be much more phased and that could mean a chance of a significant snowfall on Sunday for much of the country.. not ruled out yet is it?

A very patchy covering around Ely this morning - 1cm at most, and melting at a fair lick due to some milder air aloft.. Small drive down towards Cambridge to my work place though and 0.5C drop in temp with more substantial lying snow... always the way!! But at least we got something

I don't believe I've ever seen such favoured cold scenerios in the charts before but its all thanks to the Greenland Block effect and it is really going to do the business (again). How deep can the cold get - that's the question now... the potential for some brutal cold runs is now there to be seen.

The the latest runs goes to show why we should take any mild run with a pinch of salt at present... judging by todays ensembles we are in for some more tantilising runs yet and it could still flip either way. All to play for! Not to take our eye off the ball looking at next week - we should be keeping an eye on the precipitation charts too for the forthcoming days - many have varying takes on shower/disturbance acitvity into the weekend. The GFS is being very restricted with precipitation however with this set-up I suspect it may come down to radar watching... with a few surprises along the way, albeit likely nothing too widespread/disruptive.