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    Ely, Cambridgeshire

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  1. Matty88

    Winter 2018/19

    Interesting, as I've found accuweather's previous long range forecasts comparatively accurate in recent years (on the whole) - they were fairly close with summer 2018 too. I can see where they are coming from with this with the warming of the Pacific forecast etc, but for me and following the long term trends, heights and sea temps over the North Atlantic I would not at all be surprised if they are a bit out with this one. Famous last words of course - but there is no sign of these 'frequent wind storms' at present, on current runs anyway. We are seeing already that HP is really beasting up over europe/north atlantic with some record heights, sending warm air far further north into the arctic, reminiscent of the 'beast from the east' days. So for me, something tells me this winter isn't going to be our normal run of the mill westerlies - due to our friendly HP throwing curve balls in the jet streams way. But things can and do change... and I'm sure the jet stream will fire up with time. Its definitely an interesting one to watch!!! Never the less I'm going to enjoy the forthcoming cold, crisp days very much and Scotland could well be in for their first snowfalls too!
  2. Some good ingredients in play today for some nice storm development. Surprised none of the storm forecast sites seem to be picking up any warnings today - maybe some good storms but nothing too severe? Precip charts look very good with some moderate CAPE. Maybe I'm missing something? These sort of set ups historically are good for some weak tornado's/funnels
  3. That’s the place to be just ahead of the main clump - that sure looks a possible supercell. Anyone near this?
  4. Nice structure to this storm - is it showing signs of supercell structure looking at that radar? Either way we’ve had a pelting in Ely - constant thunder and very heavy precipitation
  5. Also to note - Meto warning pretty accurate so far as far as the zone of the storms.... impressive
  6. Some nice storms popping up now around Cambridge - just had a sharp burst, first 'rain' in over a month. No thunder / lightning yet though
  7. Well here we go again - I admit I was overly pessimistic before the last spell but even I got a decent dosing in the end. The amount of instability that followed did surprise me somewhat - the charts certainly underplayed this factor last time but the Meto did seem to pick up the potential. As for this spell, the charts are indicating some good potential around the Wash/Thames. I have to admit though I am far more optimistic this time round - knowing what sort of instability the last lot of cold produced, it could be good times for us in the east if the set-up does continue on it's track.... I am going to go for the charts underplaying snow potential at the moment, and similar places getting another decent pasting this time round (Saturday night/Sunday).. Speaking to my elderly relatives they do recall decent snow in March and even April back in the day... so anything is certainly possible. We have all got too used to mild winters lately hence the surprise factor here! I have to admit in all my years of following the weather I cannot recall such vicious easterly intrusions.... it really is fascinating and very rare. It's a nice change!
  8. Meto seem to be convinced the main belt of snow won't get much further north than London but BBC and GFS say it pushing well into EA.... we'lll just have to see. GFS say 3-4cm possible though so there has to be a little bit of hope... all about how far that front pushes North. Overall been a great week of deep cold. Am I looking forward to spring now though? You bet!!! lol
  9. Latest charts show it fizzling out quite a bit with every run.... not looking that likely to give us much decent at the moment
  10. Just had the best crazy snow storm of the week nr Cambs - threw down a good couple of CM's of fresh snow Anther one incoming before the quiet period begins I suspect Making the most of this as Fridays chances of a decent dump seem to be going down the swanny! Crazy snow.mp4
  11. Although radar still looks ok drier air coming in now - convection/showers will likely start to fizzle, worst of todays snow has most likely passed.
  12. Must admit I'm impressed with the longevity of the shower activity today - expected it to all peter out this morning. Wind strength seems to have pepped up the snow squalls I still anticipate it to die down this afternoon but it's good fun until then! Not much in the way of decent snow totals from today's showers though.
  13. It will die a death over next few hours I reckon , dry for most by this eve according to the charts
  14. Don't fear - you've done better than most! A mere 1-2cm here near Cambs
  15. Looking likely we'll get snow but just how much is the question... the models vary with every output from a proper dump to just a 2-3cm event.