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Everything posted by January Snowstorm
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pretty much and follow the Met Office. They get accused of being mildies all the time. They looking fairly spot on now.... Anyway over to ECM, my experience also tells me things can over correct so the cold chance is certainly not gone, just fragile for now -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Decades of experience, of seeing it flip last minute, especially when cold is involved -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ecm not interested in the Easterly. Has everything a nudge South with the decent uppers barely clipping the far South -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The good news is that the uppers have improved a lot for next week's Easterly. You would think chances there for coastal snow..... Re long-term very fragile, a couple of us warned about the trend last night and before. Following FI is folly no matter what ensemble agreement is what I said previously and say again -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Control out to 216hrs. A lot slower to establish heights over Greenland. Too early to call but also looks like failing. Some turnaround this is, -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just commenting on what's churned out.....but you are right ensembles give a better trend..... -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And the heights are gone to our North just like that.....the ec46 said rest of Winter would be blocked....folks from a guy that's seen models flip at an hours notice take it from me this is not a done deal.....yes we are in with a great chance but don't tell family or friends because you could be left looking rather stupid.....note been there done that,....as ever more runs needed -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Icon nudges the high pressure further South again. The Easterly (and I know its only the starter) now misses entirely to the South. Just one run I guess... -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Why shouldn't I, they are usually over egged at that timeframe and milder closer to the event. Next weeks easterly was showing minus 8 to 10 for 2/3 days. Now its showing minus 5 for 24hours Seas are still warm around our shores -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Synoptically it certainly is. But the uppers tell a less cold picture, at least initially -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jma, not much cold there from initial Easterly. It barely gets minus 5s. Was showing deep cold only yesterday for mid week. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So the ECM has a day 10 chart where Greenland heights have just established yet seem to be on the move West 24 hours later. On the other hand uppers are moving South but even at day 10 they are not cold enough for snow. But wait its dry anyway so we needn't worry about any of that lol Folks I thought the ecm was showing a stunner of a 240hrs chart 2 days ago. Shouldn't that now be moving to 192 hrs rather than staying at 240? Sorry but I'm not convinced about long term cold. The Met have it spot on, cold and dry... -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I see a different Icon. Uppers too high midweek and a high that could go anywhere at 180hrs. It's funny we all see charts differently I guess -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I detect a bit of nervousness around today and I feel the same!! The Easterly being toned back a little isn't helping, especially for my location as would have done well. The real decent charts are still in FI, BUT it does have a very 2010 feel about it. For those around then we remember great consistency day to day and it landed as predicted. There is so much in our favour but unfortunately we bear the scars from previous.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So the morning will obviously be a key timeframe to see can we continue the trends of today. We are on the cusp of something extraordinary but not there yet... if things were to come off as modeled there is no doubt it would match 2010 and most likely cause huge disruption...IF.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Look at the control!! Have we ever seen that depth of cold in Eastern Europe! It looks like some could spill this way too! -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's OK for Cork -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
January Snowstorm replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ukmo keeps very cold uppers over Ireland. I imagine it's picking up snowfall on Monday and Tuesday and it freezing over afterwards. Major upgrades this afternoon, 2010 is imminent