January Snowstorm

We've learnt hard lessons over the years that you dismiss a run at your peril. Time and time again I've seen one run pick up a trend, it looks isolated at the time only for others to follow. We need proper sustained heights over Greenland. If we don't get them I'd bet my bottom dollar that cold will unravel at record pace

It's several op runs in last 48 hrs. GEM and Jma last night and 2 runs on the bounce from gfs. The ensembles on 12z gfs also. Cold still favoured, but the trend towards something milder has actually gained traction in the last 24hours. That doesn't mean it will happen, but it's certainly deserves discussion and comment

Is anyone else exhausted from the build up to this. It seems to be ongoing since Christmas!! In my time on here I don't ever remember such a drawn out event, and yet still the goods or day 7 and further!! We must be averaging 3/4 pages an hour now for about 19days and nought to show for it I'll give it an extra day and if the wishy washy charts and chopping charging are still there am packing it in. Sorry guys but the rollercoaster is designed as a short journey for a reason. This place is gone like the titanic and that Greeny high is sinking!! Let's see where the 18z goes, now rolling

Lol, unfortunately am too old to fall for that chart!! It'll be likely gone in the morning. Someone mentioned 2018 and 2010, I stand to be corrected but I think both those events started as Easterly/Scandi High type setups. All very volatile at the moment!

History tells us it matters very much indeed. We have seen in several occasions over the years how these type of weak wedges are too weak closer to the time and leave Atlantic back in. Cold on paper, reality casts doubt on duration of cold

Heights getting weaker over Greenland us something we don't want!@

This looks milder but it's actually very cold and would deliver plenty snowfall!! Greenland heights are weak though

Ya Greenland heights could be better. As can often happen they weaken after about 48hours. Whether this delivers or not am sure most will agree its been exhausting!!

Give it the extra day!!! I'll take the next slide at 216hrs

I prefer ecm over ukmo. We don't want dry and bitter, we want cold and snowy!! Choices

It's as good as it could get!! Copy of GEM!

Better heights again from the pub run. Expect a very good run from here!!

At day 15!! It couldn't get tomorrow's 850s right a day ago

Perhaps your right but there's no denying any ppn is beyond day 10. I guess let's get the cold in first and see what happens. Overall a very good day model wise

Much improved and synoptically stunning! But uppers are still delayed yet again to Day 10

216 should trump GEM!! That's my prediction, look Northeast

Indeed and it was about 24hours behind every other model in getting there!!

Looking at the control, you do wonder where any ppn and snow is going to come from....surely the search for cold is to win the prize ie snow falling..

Yes great charts this evening. It would be nice to get an improved gfs. I see sky news or running with rhe snow warning as their top item now!

Gfs control upgrading also for tomorrow. -10s over Cork. Who was it said recently it never snows in Southern Ireland!!

This southeast event tomorrow holds my interest too. That cold pool gives more than a glancing blow to where I live and more of a sea stretch perhaps to boost ppn. Icon slightly upgraded again

The arome is showing a dusting for my area on Monday night. Can work with that, It's usually conservative with amounts

You make some very good points Catacol and your knowledge of the Strat/background signals is superb. Yes you are right if you want deep deep cold move to Canada and that 06z gfs is very cold. But most have not seen one snowflake all Winter and the wait remains on that front for now. I guess that's the disappointing fact. We are located far enough North in the hemisphere to expect at least a few days of snow....obviously keeping in mind we are island nations etc. So yes fantastic charts but none show snow for now, even for the North

Deep cold, temperatures would plummet!! Very dry though almost zero ppn for the next 2 weeks. I know it will all change again tonight, but it would be nice to see some snow falling

Yes a nudge in the right direction! Those small nudges could make a big difference if they were to continue