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January Snowstorm

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Everything posted by January Snowstorm

  1. I think the ecm looks quite okay. Still on track for a cold Northwesterly next Monday. Hill snow quite likely though uppers not as good as gfs. It's nothing special but after the winter sofar I think we'll take it!
  2. But surely Nick heights lowering over Europe is a good sign. I mean we haven't seen this for over 6 weeks. No proper heights to our North but potential is there and we haven't been able to use that word since late November
  3. The cold brought forward on tonight's ECM. All models agree now on a spell of cold weather from next Sunday! The duration still up for grabs.. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php Having said that uppers are not great at 192hrs! Is the gfs over egging how cold the uppers will be?!
  4. Perhaps the ironic benefit of all the cold being locked up over Greenland is Northwesterly's packing a proper punch. At long last maybe a pattern change for month end!!
  5. The 12z gfs is firming up on a potent Northwesterly in a weeks time. Snow for many further West. Will it consolidate into something more prolonged over the next couple of days.....
  6. The trend for a change to a cold Northwesterly in a weeks time remains. Looks quite potent actually for parts of the West and North. Heights are lowering over Europe and as I said yesterday it could yet mark a change to something more notable
  7. The last few days nearly all the models are trying to bring in something colder from the Northwest towards month end. The trend is constant and with a bit of luck I really do think this change will develop further. The cold over Greenland is proper stuff so a Northwesterly would certainly pack a punch! The long range forecasts were very good this year particularly musings from GP who was adamant that January would remain mild. An update from GP would be very welcome in where he sees February going?! Worth remembering that a lot of our recent Februarys were the coldest month of the whole winter so still time....
  8. Happy new year all!! Charts = no comment lol. At least we all sure of one thing on the Winter so far! The only way is up!!!!
  9. I would think the Northwest for a pattern reset to kinda where we were a few weeks back with the jet diving South once more only this time the uppers will be that colder! Pure speculation I suppose but I'm around long enough to know things don't stay stagnant for too long!! Today's 180 hours is tomorrows 156!
  10. I think we have to bear in mind that sooner or later a pattern change will occur. I just don't buy the fact that January is a right off other than maybe the first week!! Something will crop up over the next few days to get us out of the current slumber....its been a Christmas to forget weatherwise which of course was identical to last year and indeed many of the last 10!! So let's see where the morning runs go. I sense a change in fortunes is closer than many think ( if only using the law of averages as a theory )
  11. It's a weather enthusiast forum We look for weather extremes as part of our hobby! Some unusual weather event in our lifetimes is pbly what ignited our passion in weather. I don't think there's many on here because we got a dull bland Christmas!!
  12. For me having no wintry weather around Christmas week (Christmas week, doesn't have to be the day itself) is like having no Christmas dinner! It really means that much! Of course the ironic thing is in my 45 years I can barely remember two!! What's very frustrating is from memory last year was almost a carbon of this one with a very mild week evident. We can have our arguments about climate change but for me the most subtle change is snowfall before February becoming almost non existent!! And of course the sound of drip drip in late February doesn't really cut it!
  13. And of course with every correction South we have the chance increasing of stormy conditions further West, particularly in Southern Ireland!!
  14. Indeed cold uppers several hundred miles further West by as early as the 27th. Folks these early upgrades can and do happen! Cold frosty high = no thanks! Bring on the Easterly!!
  15. No comments on the 18z?? Big upgrade imo with the jet looking to undercut as early as Christmas Eve and a Scandinavian High trying it's hardest 24hours later!! Baby upgrades early on can lead to the holy grail once the trend continues!!
  16. Models all over the place for Christmas. 18z different again with -nao becoming more and more evident. Heights now entirely gone over Europe. A white Christmas still has a chance...need more upgrades though!! At least it's looking colder and more interesting
  17. Have no doubt Christmas day is still up in the air on whether it'll be cold or not. A big swing this morning (the first day really that the charts move into the semi reliable ie 10 days ). After days of showing us a mild Christmas both gfs and ecm show something colder!! Hopefully this new trend will build over the next 48hours
  18. I'm happy with the models tbh because there's plenty room for upgrades. At least the euro high is gone ( a ruination of many winters ) Proper trends for Christmas should become evident by Sunday or Monday so we still have time on our side. A seasonal Christmas is overdue!!
  19. We've seen it a hundred times and should be no surprise to experienced members. All decent cold spells over the last 10 years had proper heights to our North! Deep yellows not just light blues..
  20. Well the flimsy block on the 12z is now weaker again. We've seen this so many times before where the block isn't as strong once the charts move into the reliable....I just can't see a proper cold spell coming without proper blocking to our North. I'm not saying the 18z run had it right rather experience tells me all the days charts were actually not as promising as they first appeared.
  21. The beeb are certainly on board with their weekly forecast mentioning it turning 'quite wintry with snow' Though imo their forecast isn't quite as reliable as when they used the Met Office. As for the models this cold spell has come out of the blue a little bit. Exciting times and at complete odds with most of the long range forecasts!! Of course time will tell if these charts move into the reliable
  22. For me any potential heights towards Greenland in FI look very flimsy. You simply couldn't be confident that these heights will remain as we move to a reliable time frame. As for the ecm 240hrs I'm sure most of us know by now that the ecm has a habit of raising heights to our North at this timeframe. Coolish zonal is what I see in the 10 day frame. After this is anyone's guess
  23. @Steve Murr While your thoughts on gfs are very clear Steve it's worth keeping in mind the other models also have their flaws. For Example ECM almost always over amplifies beyond 192 hours. How many times has the ECM shown a full blown Greeny high at 240hours only for it to be blown away in closer timeframes. As for the ukmo it's 144 chart was always known to be a bit fickle. Anyways back to the charts this evening and baby steps starting to show up for a colder outlook in a weeks time or so..
  24. Most will end up posting where the majority are reading so I think one thread is sufficient. I do hate the way the cold bias is rampant on the model thread at times. Anyone trying to post some realistic thoughts is almost mugged if they don't say cold! In my view rather than too many posting I think some of the pro's have left because of the cold bias that exists. You need only look at the last 7 days to see this..A bog standard frosty high being ramped up beyond realistic forecasts
  25. For me there's a trend the last few years of height rises in and around Greenland during late Autumn. Quite likely to be caused by the Summer melt etc. Of course quite like last year this has very little bearing on Winter proper. Indeed I think November last year was colder than any of the Winter months (over here anyway) The same happening again is possible I guess. Time will tell but for now a zonal reset of sorts looks the favoured option. (Zonal as in the pv setting up over Greenland) How long it will last is anyone's guess.
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